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Wkd Prediction: Robot $70M, Angie $40M

wanted_nyccgalleryposter.jpg  walle_galleryteaser3a.jpg

I'm told that not only is Pixar/Disney internally hoping for a $70+ million dollar opening for Wall-E, but also a Best Picture Oscar nomination for the L'il Robot. It's possible with 100% great reviews from top critics and even rival studios bigwigs gushing about the pic: "I saw it on Wednesday and it's just adorable and smart and interesting. It has more character development and emotion than any movie I've seen this year." My box office gurus are projecting a $65M to $70M opening, and maybe more from 3,992 theaters. Clearly it'll be another giant box office since Universal's Angelina Jolie / James McAvoy starrer Wanted now looks like an all-round date movie instead of just a guyfest. 

Universal is hoping for at least $35M and maybe even $40M from 3,175 venues for Wanted's Fri/Sat/Sun total. My box office gurus are projecting $40M to $42M. "In terms of comps, that would be an extraordinary result for an R-rated summer action movie," a source tells me. "So anything above $35M is absolutely a franchise." The appeal for well-reviewed Wanted is a surprise: women want to see it as almost as much as men, young and old are coming in nearly even, and relative newcomer McAvoy is almost as much of a draw for the film as veteran Jolie.

Wall-E and Wanted will compete for older females. But it won't matter. "All the Wall-E reviews have been extraordinary. And Pixar is a brand that has earned the complete and total trust of the public," a rival marketing czar gushed. "But we have seen over and over and over again that films with different ratings and different genres can happily coexist at the box office -- Alvin And The Chipmunks and I Am Legend,  American Gangster and Bee Movie." One wrinkle in Wall-E's marketing was that the 1 hour, 37 minute pic has no dialogue for the first 40 or so minutes. "It's a bitch when the characters don't talk. Finding funny things for the TV ads is way hard." 

Looking ahead to Fourth Of July weekend, my box office gurus think Sony's Hancock will be massive. They're predicting a floor of $100M all the way up to $115M over the 5-day holiday since Will Smith owns that holiday weekend.

16 Comments »

  1. To think that Jolie only accepted this to try to get over the death of her mother… I glad she did it though she is very good on it.

    Comment by BT — June 27, 2008 @ 5:54 am

  2. And a new genre is born; Hot Righteous Babe With Gun. As a writer who has struggled because I love to write female protagonists, and hot righteous babes with guns, the news couldn’t get better!

    Comment by original Joe — June 27, 2008 @ 6:51 am

  3. I quote…

    One wrinkle in Wall-E’s marketing was that pic has no dialogue for the first 40 or so minutes. “It’s a bitch when the characters don’t talk. Finding funny things for the TV ads is way hard.”

    ….as if you needed wisecracking jokes to make something funny.
    Subtle movements can be just as funny if not more when done with artistry as it is case with Pixar.

    Comment by Pinco — June 27, 2008 @ 7:27 am

  4. This is going to be an AMAZING weekend. I can’t wait until Sunday…

    Comment by Clayton — June 27, 2008 @ 9:45 am

  5. Was at a screening of Wall-e and Wanted in Europe this past week and I can tell you that Wall-E didn’t play nearly as well as the US critics and Disney have been seeing in the US.

    Was a little amazed to wake up to some of these reviews - in my humble opinion, the film never really gets going and I actualy felt more emotional watching short circuit many years ago than Wall-E. The lackof dialogue really does impact the movie and the kids who watched it seeme a little bored at times.

    Still think it is a solid film but nowhere near worthy of a best picture Oscar nomination.

    Wanted is a stylised action pic. Story is ok but MacAvoy and Jolie are good. Classic case of style over substance but it won’t matter to teen and young adult audience that the film is targetting. The box office forecasts seem to be spot on.

    Comment by crazyfox — June 27, 2008 @ 9:46 am

  6. One wrinkle in Wall-E’s marketing was that pic has no dialogue for the first 40 or so minutes. “It’s a bitch when the characters don’t talk. Finding funny things for the TV ads is way hard.”

    Per your previous post, is it any wonder Andrew Stanton has such contempt for the marketing department?

    Comment by Max — June 27, 2008 @ 10:12 am

  7. Pixar is the greatest creative force working today in any industry.

    Comment by Harold — June 27, 2008 @ 10:40 am

  8. Has Jolie ever been much of a box office draw? I don’t see people getting that excited about Wanted, this weekend will be all about the animated robot.

    Comment by milo — June 27, 2008 @ 10:49 am

  9. It doesn’t hurt that Hancock is only 92 minutes long, either. Unfortunately, that doesn’t speak well of its quality. But hell, what does the studio care about THAT?

    Comment by Hancock92 — June 27, 2008 @ 11:17 am

  10. “Has Jolie ever been much of a box office draw? I don’t see people getting that excited about Wanted, this weekend will be all about the animated robot.”

    I don’t know about Jolie, but as for Wanted’s appeal…I went to a sold-out screening in Fairfield, CA last night. they even added a second screen which looked packed as well. The movie played very well, with applause for the more crazy action sequences.

    The Fanboys will complain since they changed virtually everything about the graphic novel, but they shouldn’t because the source material was ridiculous and had one of the most pretencious endings in comics.

    Comment by Presidentpez — June 27, 2008 @ 11:59 am

  11. All I can say is that it’s going to be a WALL-E weekend at our house. My kids are so anxious to see this lovable robot!

    Comment by WALL-E rocks — June 27, 2008 @ 1:07 pm

  12. Jolie has very large box office numbers for her Tomb Raider turns, Mr & Mrs. Smith of course etc. She is the only female star of today that can do this genre. In fact she is the last action hero. lol

    Comment by Lee — June 27, 2008 @ 1:52 pm

  13. Interestingly enough, Jolie also played an assassin in her biggest hit to date (Mr. & Mrs. Smith), although Kung Fu Panda will probably pass that at some point.

    Comment by JoshA — June 27, 2008 @ 4:25 pm

  14. I think people forget about the Tomb Raider films because they were so lame. But Jolie does action films very well and she adds a level of class that few actors can.

    Comment by Presidentpez — June 27, 2008 @ 5:23 pm

  15. So Jolie is the Last Action Heroine eh? Well, typecast anyone? Seems her baby-making persona doesn’t translate well to her movie roles. Blame it on her ‘manly’ features. Brad sure knows how to pick a ‘lady’ to have babies with..I kid..I kid

    Ok! Now for thee B.O.

    Wall-E in the high of 70Ms. Long legs it sure would have but longer than Nemo, I think not!

    Wanted will be ‘wanted’ (pun intended) for this weekend till another hero hits the screen next weekend. What this talk about trilogy? Sheesh! Let the mkt respond 1st before even thinking of a sequel people.

    Comment by Armand — June 27, 2008 @ 9:56 pm

  16. Eh, your mother didn’t breast feed you as a child Armand or maybe she still is and that’s problem?

    Comment by Lee — June 28, 2008 @ 4:39 am

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