My box office gurus agree that Lionsgate/The Weinstein Co's Forbidden Kingdom starring Jackie Chan and Jet Li and playing in 3,151 theaters should beat out Universal's Judd Apatow-bannered Forgetting Sarah Marshall in 2,798 venues for the No. 1 domestic box office gross this weekend. 
Of course, it could be a close call if both pics earn in the high teens, which is possible. Yet R-rated Sarah Marshall will probably fall short because two of the four tracking services are showing the pic is tracking weaker than expected and may make only in the low double digits of $10M-$14M. I do know that Universal would be thrilled with anything north of $15 million. "It's not a big movie. But every good movie from Judd Apatow is an opportunity to outperform," a studio source tells me.
Rivals claim one problem is the pic is packed with TV stars, while another is that Jason Segel, who stars and also wrote the script, portrays a "wussy" guy (with full frontal nudity) which may turn off Apatow's strong male fan base. Then again, a watchable comedy has been AWOL from the cineplexes. And Uni's clever teaser ad campaign -- "Who Is Sarah Marshall?" -- sparked lots of Internet interest. Still, "the smart money is on Forbidden Kingdom because of its PG-13 rating," one marketer told me. "It has had more consistency even if its strength hasn't built for weeks and is flat. But its target audience has been somewhat reliable in the past." Expectations are for this first pairing of these martial arts film stars to make $15+M and maybe even $20+M.
As for Sony's 88 Minutes, which was released first in Europe, its older Al Pacino fans may be turned off by the bad buzz (and bad reviews). Tracking shows it should make only $10 mil from 2,168 runs. Holdovers Prom Night should place #4, and Street Kings #5.
I wonder though, how much those “Fanboys” supporters who are set in their ways will impact the box office of “The Forbidden Kingdom”….that is if they hold true to their boycott plans….
Comment by Pete Fanning — April 18, 2008 @ 3:54 am
I say Forgetting Sarah Marshall drinks Forbidden Kingdom’s milkshake. Because I have to believe in quality films winning out sometimes.
Comment by Nick — April 18, 2008 @ 7:41 am
I’ll go with Sarah Marshall making 20+ and winning the weekend. 88 Minutes wwill be DOA and make less than 10.
Comment by Jim — April 18, 2008 @ 7:56 am
I’m just a regular joe, but for fun, let’s see how my gut instincts compare to paid professional predictions.
1) Sarah Marshall
Forbidden Kingdom
2) 88 Minutes
3) Prom Night
4) 21
5) Horton Hears a Who
6) Nim’s Island
7) Street Kings
9) Smart People
10) Leatherheads
Comment by John M. — April 18, 2008 @ 10:17 am
Forbidden Kingdom will finish with about $2 million more than Sarah Marshall, especially opening night (Sarah Marshall could top it on Sunday.) However, the martial arts genre has always been frontloaded and considering the reviews, Kingdom will drop off dramatically. Everyone except Jeff Wells has been raving about FSM, so that Apatow pic will have legs to finish near $70 million.
The real embarrassment will be next week when FSM overshadows Uni’s Baby Mama. Opening their two female-friendly romcoms two weeks apart is one of the most idiotic moves of the year.
Comment by 40yearoldstitzer — April 18, 2008 @ 10:20 am
I hadn’t even heard of Forbidden Kingdom until driving around Hollywood 2 nights ago and saw a billboard. Sarah Marshall is everywhere, all over the internet, it has the buzz. People have been looking for a good comedy for quite awhile, and it’s been getting great reveiws.
Comment by AJ — April 18, 2008 @ 10:37 am
Where are all the right wing crazies? I sorta miss the knuckleheads and their wonderful insight.
Comment by Greg — April 18, 2008 @ 11:38 am
I don’t know. I think Forbidden Kingdom is gonna do much weaker than expected. The trailer was lame, the TV spots are ineffectual and nobody knows it exists.
Comment by Chromey — April 18, 2008 @ 11:44 am
I also think 88 Minutes will be DOA. Nobody is gonna brave the cineplexes to watch THAT. It looks like a rental at best. I genuinely think audiences would go see Pacino in the right movie because of his Scarface cult, but this is not that movie.
Comment by Chromey — April 18, 2008 @ 11:51 am
Pacino will do way less than 10. Don’t underestimate the Apatow phenom. The martial arts movie may do well just because it’s in a shitload of theaters but, is Jackie Chan wearing dreadlocks? The movie just doesn’t “look” very good. A movie a friend of mine directed called “Anamorph” is opening in NYC for a limited run. I think I’ll go see that.
Comment by peggy — April 18, 2008 @ 12:06 pm
It’s about time we got full frontal male nudity in films. Bravo, Apatow. Now it just needs to be done in a non-campy way, and with good looking men, i.e. Ryan Philippe, Gyllenhaal, etc. We women will come out in droves. The male studio chiefs will have to take the hit on their egos.
Comment by female film lovers — April 18, 2008 @ 12:18 pm
Greg, the right-wingers won’t show up until Matt Drudge links to DHD tomorrow morning. Then they can somehow equate martial arts to conservative values, while R-rated comedy is immoral Hollywood that the heartland has turned its back on.
Or maybe they’ll call Apatow a Zionist. You never know what to expect from them.
Comment by 40yearoldstitzer — April 18, 2008 @ 12:19 pm
I love how Sarah Marshall is somehow a “quality film.” It reeks of two-years-ago, has hideous direction and a so-so script. This is not a quality film anymore than the surely awful (though I haven’t seen it) Forbidden Kingdom.
The fact is… most comedians, comics and comedy writers get stale MUCH faster than the audience catches on. Apatow always seemed pretty safe and vanilla to me, but this wasn’t that offensive at first. He had a couple decent movies in him but now it’s falling off quick. Already heading down that road to Jim Carrey-land (or should I call it Owen Wilson land at this point?)
Comment by ckn8 — April 18, 2008 @ 12:21 pm
A few weeks ago the audience turnout was huge for a free preview of 21 and it managed to do better than expected at the box office. Last week the Forgetting Sarah Marshall preview had slightly less people but still generated some buzz. This week’s free previous of the Forbidden Kingdom was still having trouble giving away tickets hours before the show began (the previous two were overbooked).
While I know the 18-24 demographic is not huge, for this reason I can’t help but think that the Forbidden Kingdom disappoints. It looks too tame to attract hardcore fans and too graphic to attract families.
Comment by College Student — April 18, 2008 @ 12:29 pm
“Forgetting Sarah Marshall” won’t do well because it has TV stars? How isolated and out-of-touch is that studio exec? I actually far prefer TV actors to the so-called movie stars, like Clooney (aging pathetically), or Matt Damon (sexiest man alive according to who?). Like stars, studio execs would do well not to fall for the hype they generate.
If I don’t see Sarah Marshall, it’ll be because I wasn’t in the mood for the more juvenile aspects of Apatow’s humor- the cast looks great.
Comment by Lady from the Midwest — April 18, 2008 @ 1:11 pm
Lady from the Midwest,
I’m sure you’re a drudge type of person,, but exactly how is Clooney aging pathetically? he’s aging sure, like everyone else. All of us pathetic mortals. Get a grip. You could be so lucky to age as well.
I will be seeing Sarah Marshall this weekend. And when will ‘Not Hollywood’ get it?!! Hollywood like to be entertained as well. It’s just that people on both sides of the ‘fence’ are interested in a variety of subjects that do not necessarily overlap.
Comment by ghostface — April 18, 2008 @ 1:46 pm
I’m an Apatow junkie, so going to Sarah Marshall is a no-brainer for me. Because of his imprimatur, I’d assume most of the other guys in his demographic will also be able to get over the (let’s face it, silly) quease factor associated with seeing another man’s equipment.
I have to assume it’s handled in a pretty hilarious way, and it’d probably be much more funny if the audience didn’t expect it. But if the extra press helps the picture, and therefore Apatow’s brand, the trade-off will be worth it.
Comment by Christian Gulliksen — April 18, 2008 @ 2:14 pm
FSM won’t open #1 on account of its R-rating. If Apatow can creatively find ways to make PG-13 comedies then he’ll be back on top in no time. Also, Judd is one of the nicest guys in town not to mention the hardest working, his six movies in two years don’t fall out of trees.
Comment by Tom — April 18, 2008 @ 2:32 pm
ghostface: I’m not one of the Drudge people- I happen to be a proud liberal (anti-Bush, anti-Iraq war) who agrees with the political messages that Hollywood puts out.
That doesn’t mean I fall for the hype.
Although I admire Clooney’s political activity (especially his work to raise awareness for Darfur), I’m one of the women who has lost interest in Clooney as an actor (although I loved him in ER). His partying shows in his face and running around with a woman half his age just makes him seem like someone who’s aging poorly.
Of course, it’s completely his right to do that. He’s not breaking laws or anything.
It’s just that, for me at least, he’s lost his appeal. I’m one the people who probably would have seen Leatherheads 10 years ago.
You sound like one of the people who’s part of the Hollywood machine that insists on pushing certain “stars” that most of us don’t find that interesting- hence, their name alone doesn’t sell tickets. You can think I’m stupid all you want, but the box office results don’t lie.
Comment by Lady from the Midwest — April 18, 2008 @ 2:45 pm
Oh, and PS to my last post: my point was that I seriously doubt the public cares if the actor comes from TV or film!
Comment by Lady from the Midwest — April 18, 2008 @ 2:48 pm
I’m not part of the machine.
and many people found Michael Clayton interesting, and it did modestly well. No one ever thought it was going to be a blockbuster. I happen to think he did a great job in it.
you’re correct, stars alone sell fewer tickets these days. But all things being equal, i’d rather see clooner in something than say…the dad from malcolm in the middle.
and matt damon has hardly been foisted on a public who doesn’t want to see his movies. if box office results don’t lie, then please see the receipts for the bourne ultimatum.
Comment by ghostface — April 18, 2008 @ 3:58 pm
Matt Damon, likable as he is, has all the sex appeal of a choirboy, which is what made the People mag thing so funny.
In thinking about it, all the next wave young stars appear slight and fey. Short and delicate. (Orlando Bloom, Tobey Maguire, Shia LaBeouf, and on and on) They’re pint-sized cuties. There is nothing wrong with that until it starts to describe all of them. We need at least some testosterone-laden types for variety.
Comment by Bring Sexy Back — April 18, 2008 @ 5:57 pm
I saw a free sneak of “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” last night in a fairly conservative area (Cincinnati, OH) and there were moments when you could not hear the dialogue because the audience was laughing so hard. I really enjoyed the flick and can only assume that word of mouth with twentysomethings and beyond (um, I’m 32) will keep this one floating for a few weekends. It’s the first thing I’ve seen in ages that I would go see again in the theater.
Comment by Matt — April 18, 2008 @ 7:59 pm
Forbidden kingdom was awsome and extremely funny I was laughing real loud at least four times. Instant classic.
Comment by inbiloxi — April 18, 2008 @ 8:59 pm
I am adding dilettante movie industry analyst to my budding amateur TV industry resume. I found out about Finke first from Drudge - so what? Do we need a new term - politicist - to add to racist, sexist, fattist, lookist, etc? Maybe we DO. Wouldn’t you double-standard tweakers choke on that one? Clearly the ” female” fans claiming they want full-frontal are just trying to get a kneejerk response. Such self-conscious mallrats ought to know that bad box office is a far greater hit to a male or female executive’s ego than some poorly-hung white putz dripping wet naked in the shower. I imagine the “lady fans” are also typical Chippendale fans - white, 50-60 lbs overweight, and dateless on Friday and Saturday night. In fact, I’d bet the farm on it. Sarah Marshall will be under 15 million.
Comment by jay turney — April 19, 2008 @ 10:06 am
The Forbidden Kingdom is brilliant and actually one of the funniest, most ass kicking films I’ve seen in a long time. I think its results will go up as word of mouth continues to spread. I’m already hearing about it from people who didn’t know anything about it and were pleasantly surprised.
Comment by Darin — April 19, 2008 @ 8:43 pm