I haven’t seen it yet, but Indy 4 is what we consider “sitter worthy” i.e. worth hiring a babysitter to go see. All this fan girl wants to see is something that is at least as good as “Temple of Doom.” No chick flick with “interesting” (read pathetic head case or courageous long suffering victim)female character is ever going to be “sitter worthy” in this family. If we’re going to drop a lot of coin on going out to a dinner and a movie these days, this Mom wants to see things getting blown up and have some pure escapist fun.

I attended a midnight showing at the ArcLight and the biggest applause came when various visual lip service was paid to the classic movies. The crowd was decidedly older than other midnight showings I’ve been to (i.e. Iron Man, Harry Potter films, Spider-Man, Pirates…)

The film itself was so bad that I wasn’t at all shocked at the piddling applause when the credits rolled. And this was a crowd that should’ve been giving a standing ovation (I mean, there were people in Indiana costumes, complete with fedoras).

Just to be a radical I will put my money on a $135 million opening for Indy 4 and a 50% drop off the 2nd weekend. I think the under 25 crowd sees this stuff on a daily basis on their computers and even their I-phones, no less, whereas around the time of Indy 1-3, nearly 20 years ago, they had to go to movies to see it. Older fans may have nostalgia, but nostalgia is a dying impulse, especially in a weak economy, unless Lucas and co. have really done something to reinvigorate the franchise. I haven’t heard that that is the case.

I agree with some others that TDK looks like it may be too dark, though there will be a strong turnout to see Heath Ledger.

I really liked Robert Downey Jr. in Iron Man and I think that he is responsible for a lot of the repeat business. I don’t see much repeat business for Indy 4 and that is the heart of a blockbuster.

That said, I think my numbers may be too low for the opening, but I predict that the numbers over the next month will disappoint.

Looking at the $180-185M mark, maybe even higher. What do people do when times are tough? Go to the movies and indulge in some good old-fashioned escapism. If they want to see a movie, an extra dollar or so won’t stop them. I’ll definitely be seeing the movie this weekend.

The best case scenario is that it performs like The Bourne Supremacy. Like Dark Knight, that was a sequel to an adult film that was a solid hit in theaters, but it didn’t open huge because people didn’t expect it to be as good as it was. Additionally, Bourne rode its wave of good word of mouth to be a monster on DVD. Thus, we had a critically acclaimed sequel to a movie that critics and audiences all really liked, but didn’t all discover at once.

For the sequel we had everyone who liked the first one going all at once to see the sequel over the opening weekend. Thus you had an almost doubling of the opening weekend from $29 million to $52 million (a 1.7x increase). If The Dark Knight follows a similar pattern, as it has thus far, we could see a near doubling of its opening weekend, which would amount to about $86 million over three days. Plus the morbid curiosity factor and the geek factor could theoretically put it over $100 million. But it won’t happen like that. There is one huge strike against it even coming close to that comparison or any other records of note: kids.

Ironically, considering the release and fall out of Batman Returns (I know, I seem to bring that up every season for one reason or another), the very marketing campaign that is building such buzz for The Dark Knight is the very thing that will prevent it from reaching any record heights.

First of all, a quick digression, the ad campaign is built around fans of the mythology as opposed to casual observers. No one in either trailer ever calls The Joker by his nickname. And nowhere are we told just who Harvey Dent is, like the fact that is he the new district attorney. So far, the two trailers feel like inside baseball. But that’s a minor issue (easily rectified in June) compared to the big problem.

The entire ad campaign (trailers and posters) is basically daring parents to bring children. It’s all about darkness, fear, despair, failure, and mass death. For reasons right or wrong, parents felt comfortable bringing their kids to Pirates 2 or Iron Man. I can’t imagine most parents of a seven or eight year old not thinking twice before bringing their son or daughter to watch a most terrifying Joker as he blows up hospitals, slaughters police officers, drops women out of windows, and basically does his best to give your kids nightmares (and that’s just what the trailers reveal).

It’s the Achilles heel that will prevent The Dark Knight from opening as high as Iron Man or Indiana Jones 4. Heck, even The Incredible Hulk looks more colorful and less frightening. R-rating not withstanding, The Matrix Reloaded was basically sold as harmless sci-fi kung-fu. From a protective parent’s viewpoint, I’d imagine The Dark Knight basically looks like a horror film that happens to feature well known comic book characters.

And that may be a great thing for adults and action fans and geeks. And as a hardcore Batman fan, there’s an outside shot that it could be my new favorite movie ever. But in order to set records, you need to at least trick families into thinking that your movie is appropriate. The marketeers have spent the last several months doing just the opposite. And it will most certainly cost them a shot at the title. But, gosh, I’d love to be proven wrong.

Scott Mendelson

Plus, it annoys me when these analysts brand a film a box-office failure when it fall $1 short of their precious estimates even though there are line-ups down the street. You just know that there’s some accounting skullduggery at work when that happens.

That’s my rant on the subject.

Good to have you back Nikki, keep well.

The second weekend will see a colossal drop, as people realize that Uncle George has been molesting their childhood for 20 years.

Now, let’s track the last few movies of the same genre, ‘action, adventure, mystery, swash-buckling hero’.

NT 1 & 2 had good BO performance
Mummy 1 & 2, same as well
Lara Croft 1 & 2, so-so only
DaVinci - superb returns all in all

Well, this genre has always been able to command good returns in the BO with audiences enjoying the ‘bazooka’ plot.

Now with Indiana, it has a lot going for it. The long wait, a hero everyone loves and 3 movies that practically cemented its place in cinema history.

So it will be huge, it will be in demand and best of all it serves all ages. For it doesn’t have superhero, epic battle, wizardry, no Will Ferrell. What it has is just a story and a hero that everyone will want to remember the next day and to reminisce of.

Numbers: Very huge. I give it 2 -50M, 1-40M and 1-30M day and 90% shot of beating ‘Lambada-Dancing Stupid’ Spidey 3 record of biggest 3-day opening.

old men making movies with middle aged men

old men making movies with boys

big yawn.

women, don’t support this crap.

direct your dollars away from film/tv, make your voice heard for interesting film/tv with interesting female leads