Turnabout is fair play. The general concensus is that the Alliance For Motion Picture & Television Producers is pursuing a "divide and conquer" strategy towards the striking writer. So the WGA is now saying that two can play that game. In fact, starting as soon as Monday. But will the Hollywood moguls take up the offer if it means they're ostracized from the CEOs club (no tee time foursomes at Riviera or Bel Air Country Club) because they put shareholders before Big Media colleagues? I fear the answer is no. Because agents are telling me the Reality TV orders are coming in fast and furiously from the networks, who are clearly digging in for a long seige even it means scrapping most scripted series' Back 9 and even pilot season. Here's the latest WGA statement followed by the AMPTP's. (See below for my analysis and read my previous, The Line To Break Mogul Ranks Is Here...):
A Message to the WGA Membership from its Negotiating Committee:
As you know, the AMPTP is currently unwilling to bargain with us. The internal dynamics of the AMPTP make it difficult for the conglomerates to reach consensus and negotiate with us on a give and take basis. We believe this multi-employer structure inhibits individual companies from pursuing their self-interest in negotiations. We nonetheless continue to hope that the AMPTP will return in good faith to negotiate a fair contract with writers, as two television seasons and numerous feature projects are currently at great risk.
We want to do everything in our power to move negotiations forward and end this devastating strike. We have therefore decided to reach out to major AMPTP companies and begin to negotiate with them individually. As you may know, bargaining on a multi-employer basis through the AMPTP is an option for the WGA, not a legal requirement. Each signatory employer is required to bargain with us individually if we make a legal demand that it do so.
We will make this demand on Monday December 17th and hope that each company responds promptly, in accordance with the law.
In the meantime, we urge you to support us and our negotiations team and leadership during these difficult times. We look forward to a making a fair deal that will resolve this strike, protect our future and put us all back to work, for the good of the industry and all of its employees.
Signed,
John F. Bowman, Chair
John Auerbach
Neal Baer
Marc Cherry
Bill Condon
Carlton Cuse
Stephen Gaghan
Terry George
David A. Goodman
Carl Gottlieb
Susannah Grant
Carol Mendelsohn
Marc Norman
Shawn Ryan
Melissa Salmons
Robin Schiff
Ed Solomon
The AMPTP predictably poured cold water all over the idea:
Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers spokesman Jesse Hiestand
issued the following today in response to a statement from the WGA negotiating committee:
This is merely the latest indication that the WGA organizers are grasping for
straws and have never had a coherent strategy for engaging in serious
negotiations. The AMPTP may have different companies with different assets in
different businesses, but they are all unified in one common goal -- to reach
an agreement with writers that positions everyone in our industry for success
in a rapidly changing marketplace."
The issue at hand is whether the WGA can exploit the lack of unanimity within the mogul ranks on how to proceed with the AMPTP-WGA contract talks. For one thing, not all their agendas are the same: there are the mostly movie studios, the mostly TV networks, and the studios that own networks, and the networks that own studios. But here is what Big Media consolidation has wrought: Brad Grey, for instance, can't just do a Paramount-WGA deal because he has to take into account Les Moonves' opinions even though Viacom and CBS are supposed to be separate companies now. (Trust me, Grey can't do what Moonves doesn't want him to do. For instance, Moonves is planning to make movies, but Grey recently let go of his chief TV exec.) Nor can Universal's Ron Meyer because of NBC. So the handful of CEOs who normally trash-talk one another are now comrades in arms.
I've said this before but it's well worth repeating: In the old days of guild talks, the AMPTP was made up of hundreds of honest-to-god independent producers But they went by the wayside when financial syndication rules were eased. So now there's no Aaron Spelling or Carsey Werner in the mix at the AMPTP telling Big Media to play nice.
Starting back on December 3rd, WGAW prez Patric Verrone called on the more moderate CEOs to break ranks with AMPTP which he claimed is "allowing bottom-line hard-liners to rule the day." I've heard top WGA'ers privately refer to this as the "Let's Make A Deal" strategy. But it hadn't been articulated in public until then. "If any of these companies want to come forward and bargain with us individually, we think we can make a deal," Verrone told AP while conferring with picketing writers at NBC in Burbank.
I find it that the moguls may not have the strength of character, the commitment to their shareholders, or, let's face it, the balls of steel necessary to go against The Club. For weeks now, I've talked to several CEOs about why they don't deal individually with the WGA. After all, the car companies have a lot in common, but they still bargain individually with the auto workers. But Hollywood studios and networks are colluding, not competing.
Sony and Paramount are primarily in the movie business. Why not get their films restarted? NBC has been in the cellar ratings-wise. Why not leap-frog other networks and ensure the Golden Globes go off without a hitch? Then there's ABC: doesn't it have the most to lose with most of its Nielsen Top 10 series in primetime not to mention the Academy Awards? And do Fox's rivals really want to cede January to May ratings to Peter Chernin?
Any network that does a deal now could save the Back 9 of scripted shows not to mention pilot season. Any movie exec could finish the 2009 slate and move on to 2010. Makes sense, right?
But when I raise this possibility, the CEO's answer is an audible shrug, followed by stammering and a simple, "I just can't." Time to upset protocol and break ranks.
The trades delight in every rumor of dissent and disillusionment on the writers’ side. Let’s see if these cracks in the AMPTP armor get the same kind of front-page coverage.
Comment by striker — December 15, 2007 @ 11:51 am
Maybe the WGA should hire Will Smith to negotiate a deal. He’s more golden then Dela Hoya.
Comment by Mark S. — December 15, 2007 @ 12:13 pm
I mentioned this to some of the people I work with (in publishing), and their response was the first studio to even NEGOTIATE with the WGA will reap a whirlwind of good publicity. As in, “Studio X to enter negotiations with WGA - everyone else still refuses to deal with writers.”
Also, that studio would suddenly find themselves with a pipeline to ALL the content they want - which their competitors couldn’t have.
Comment by JAO — December 15, 2007 @ 12:26 pm
The moguls have declared war on the entire Hollywood Creative Community with their slash and burn negotiations. Meanwhile the networks are on a death spiral as a result. Let’s hope this will give the latter an out with the former so they can save their businesses.
Comment by A-CREATOR — December 15, 2007 @ 12:31 pm
This may be a biased opinion… but it seems to me that Nick Counter and the AMPTP are being soundly beaten at their own game. Whether it’s their, so far, disastrous PR tactics or the WGA’s continual resolve… it looks like Counter is consistently being undermined and made to look a fool. First, their shameful cry baby abandonment of the negotiations, then the hilarious mock AMPTP.com web site, next their total lack of readiness when the WGA filed a complaint with the NLRB and now the WGA’s move to simply ignore Counter and his merry band of bullies and move to negotiate with the studios individually. GO WGA!
What say you, all knowing Gavin?
- Sloop John B
Comment by Sloop John B — December 15, 2007 @ 12:31 pm
The strike is good for Fox — which will pit Battleship American Idol against reruns — and bad for several other networks which depend on scripted programming. Rupert has strategic motivations to prolong this strike while he racks up viewers and advertisers, who may never go back to dramas and comedies on competitors.
Doing individual deals also brings on the possibility of creating resentment in the WGA. If a deal is struck with one AMPTP entity but not all, some writers will go back to work while others remain on the picket line, and the Guild will have to endure some grave tests of its unity.
Comment by Perry — December 15, 2007 @ 12:40 pm
Funny how Gavin Polone claimed to foresee everything that would happen during the course of this strike, but missed all of these latest moves by the WGA. With this in mind, and the failure of “Primeval” and “My Super Ex-Girlfriend”, is is apparent that Gavin is slipping.
Hey Gavin, do you remember what happened when the video game empire, Atari decided not to share the wealth and pay their game programmers what they deserved? I’ll enlighten you, smart ass. They lost their most valuable talent, their product suffered tremendously (remember the awful E.T. video game that forced children to tears and toy stores couldn’t give away), eventually consumers turned away and the competition moved in and gobbled them up. They lost millions because of their own greed and stupidity.
- Sloop John B
Comment by Sloop John B — December 15, 2007 @ 12:47 pm
Now’s your time to really be Hollywood’s golden boy, Ben Silverman!
Let’s find out if you’re the real deal or not…
Comment by WGA Writer — December 15, 2007 @ 12:50 pm
This new divide and conquer strategy is just a time waster. It won’t work because none of the studio group is feeling any heat after the 7 week strike. Their quarterly numbers are up, since operating expenses are down and revenue hasn’t changed. The talkshows coming back helps them. The fact that they can now terminate some deals offers a long-term gain to earnings. They think their reality schedules will perform well for, at least, a few months and their scripted schedules were performing badly before the strike. They all think the guild’s strategy has been irrational and weak and figure that they can achieve more leverage by making a deal with the DGA first and maintaining cohesion within their ranks. If there is an NLRB issue, they’ll play some lip-service but won’t make a deal.
Here are some questions I have for the working writers who have taken an income hit as a result of the strike: did you expect that this is where things would stand after 7 weeks of striking? Did you figure that the DVD residual would be off-the-table but sympathy strikes and reality and animation jurisdiction would still be in play? How much income have you lost during the past 7 weeks and how much more will you forgo during the next 12? What kind of increase will the negotiations have to yield in order for you to mitigate the loss of income you have and will suffer?
The route around this current impasse is not to negotiate individually; or file lawsuits; or send cartons of pencils to the studios; or continue with the “hey, hey, ho, ho…” silliness. The way to end this is to bring in a respected negotiator, right now, and have him hammer away at the only important issue left: Internet residuals. As I have said many times here on the UnitedHollywood annex, the rhetoric and hostility evidenced by the guild leaders has created a toxic environment in which to conduct a negotiation. A new negotiator, known and respected by them, will soften their resistance and allow them to feel good about giving up more on the Internet residual issues. They won’t feel like they were bullied into a compromise, which is how they would feel now if they acquiesced and why they won’t offer more.
This doesn’t have to appear as a failure on the part of the WGA leaders. It is a strategy shift that good leaders make as they assess how a contest is progressing. Lincoln supported McClellan for a long time but, eventually, replaced him. Without that shift, he would have lost the war and been remembered today as a failure. Verrone needs to attain some perspective. The membership needs to help him by quietly expressing their support for a new negotiation strategy led by a new negotiator.
Now, I know what will follow, as always, will be a volley of posts about how I am physically unattractive, without talent, a blowhard, the producer of bad product, a has-been, someone who has been fired by a talent agency and craving the spotlight. Let’s say all of that is true. What is the difference? Am I wrong about what I say above? Does it really hurt anyone to consider an alternate opinion? Have I been inaccurate in what I have predicted? Compare what has happened during the last week with my post from 12/7:
Here is what is going to happen:
The DGA will open negotiations with the AMPTP. They will close a deal and that agreement will be the basis of what all the unions will accept for Internet distribution. It will be better than the last proposal made to the WGA but not close to what the WGA has requested.
The networks will show to wall street that their net profits are up because of their reduced costs and despite any drop in ratings.
The talk shows, which are the only parts of the network schedules that have truly been damaged so far, will go back on the air. They will follow Letterman’s lead, probably around Jan. 7th.
The AMPTP will launch a publicity campaign featuring the suffering of those put out of work by the strike. IATSE will help with campaign. They will also put out more information about how much top showrunners and screen writers make.
Some movies will fall apart, others will come back together-in the way Brad Pitt dropped out of State of Play and Crowe stepped in.
Eventually, probably in the spring, the WGA and AMPTP will come back to the table, with the help of a government negotiator, and the WGA will agree to the Internet formula already negotiated by the DGA. They will give up on all of the reality TV provisions, as well as the “sympathy strike” stuff. Some small bone in another area, probably PH&W or minimums, will be thrown their way as a “face saver”.
Pretty much what could have been concluded now.
Comment by Gavin Polone — December 7, 2007 @ 8:11 pm
Comment by Gavin Polone — December 15, 2007 @ 12:54 pm
Dear Mr. “I just can’t” Mogul Coward,
You are in dire need of going to prison for your numerous anti-trust violations. The carrot of individual studio bargaining is good but it won’t be enough. This needs to be elevated to the legal arena immediately.
WGA has to authorize those lawyers in Pasadena who filed the labor relations complaint to take the next step and file a class action lawsuit against all the studios and networks charging them with collusion and violations of the Sherman Anti-Trust Act which would then bring in Congress they’d have to hold hearings once such a lawsuit is filed in federal court. Moguls like Mr. “I just can’t” would be forced to testify under oath on Capitol Hill and in federal court.
The IRS should also be “encouraged” to start investigating the hundreds of millions of dollars that have been hidden away by the studio accounting tricksters. Once that happens the Guild will have the strongest possible hand and will be able to dictate terms. As a side benefit Nick Counter will be forced to testify and could very easily be jailed for perjury because he will have to lie under oath.
The analogy with the auto companies is spot-on accurate. What the studios and networks have been doing hiding behind the ugly AMPTP logo is completely illegal and a gutsy District Attorney or Federal Prosecutor could make a real name for himself by charging them with collusion en masse. What Enron was to the Wall Street crowd is nothing compared to what could result if the Guild will start showing some real guts on this.
If the deal doesn’t fit, they must be forced to submit!
Comment by Johnnie Cochran — December 15, 2007 @ 1:01 pm
Regardless of whether it’ll work, it should- almost has to- be tried. There is dessent among the studios. Many are already feeling the pressure. Keep the advertisers threatening to pull out, and keep the court case at the front of this thing. The empire is already crumbling. They might hold their denial in the face of this, but WGA owes it to themselves, all other guilds, and the BTL-ers to give it a shot. Good luck, guys.
Comment by Caitlin — December 15, 2007 @ 1:10 pm
I realize that we writers have active imaginations, but the notion that the Guild will be able to break the unity of the companies is, to this former attorney and produced screenwriter, PURE FANTASY.
This strategy, together with our recent filing of a federal labor complaint and our reassertion of reality, animation and the “no-strike” clause is, I’m sad to say, a very desperate hand of cards we’re playing. Sadder still, it didn’t have to be like this.
I’m surprised this hasn’t been commented on more, but in a very real sense, this dispute was over on November 4, when the Guild gave on DVDs and got BUBKES in return. That was the strongest card we had to play, and the moment we gave on it, the end game was in sight.
We are told that our negotiators caved on DVDs because they were led to believe that a major concession on new media was forthcoming. Why our negotiators didn’t insist on hearing this “concession” before giving on DVDs, our biggest chit to give, remains the most infuriating fuck-up of this whole negotiation. At that moment, we were screwed.
Now we are trying to take our weakest cards — the demands that no one in their right mind thought we had a realistic chance of achieving — and lumping them together in a transparent effort to create the same sort of leverage that the DVD issue gave us.
Not gonna happen.
So what next? Classic negotiation strategy (something our side hasn’t exactly followed, to put it mildly) would tell you that when there are no good outcomes left, you change your goals and pursue the least bad outcome. At this point, that means dropping these ancillary issues and salvaging the best deal possible on new media, the issue that working writers care about most. Yep. Craig Mazin had it right.
It won’t be a great deal — that ship sailed on December 4th — but it could still be a decent deal, and in any event, it is the deal we are going to get whether it is made on January 1st or June 1st.
You can call this dissent, shilling for the studios, whatever the hell you want. I call it common sense, something our leaders have displayed strikinkly little of. I call on all my fellow writers who feel as I do — and I know we are many — to let our leadership know that it is incumbent on them to get the companies back to the table and make a new media deal NOW.
Comment by Common Sense — December 15, 2007 @ 1:38 pm
If the moguls are asked to negotiate separately and some comply (or even one), that’s a breakthrough. If all refuse, then it could be collusion hearing time on Capitol Hill. Seems to me that the pressure is on the bad guys.
Comment by chardkerm — December 15, 2007 @ 2:08 pm
NBC is the most susceptible to shareholder pressure (since the network is such a relatively small piece of General Electric, whose share price has dropped from 40-1/2 to under 37 since the strike began), so it would make perfect sense for CEO Jeff Immelt to consider interim agreements to prevent continued erosion of shareholder value
Comment by thom taylor — December 15, 2007 @ 2:21 pm
Well the AMPTP has been trying to play the writers against each other for weeks so lets see how they feel when the studios and networks are played the same way.
What’s good for the goose is good for the gander, no?
I can’t imagine the networks not jumping on the bandwagon and agreeing to a deal with the WGA if, say, ABC agreed first. ABC would be the only network that has fresh material. The others aren’t going to sit back and play reruns and these other shit shows they have lined up.
Does anyone honestly think Warner Bros is going to sit on its ass and twiddle its thumbs while Paramount goes back to work with new product?
Comment by Sherilyn — December 15, 2007 @ 2:28 pm
Some say this strategy won’t work. Well, nothing else is working so why not give it a shot? Besides, like the joke about the kid trying to sell rocks at the price of a million dollars, it only takes one.
If one company breaks, there’s no way the others are going to just sit back. It really comes down to what is the bigger incentive for these moguls: being yelled at by the shareholders or by the other members of the old boys’ club?
Comment by Vincent — December 15, 2007 @ 2:42 pm
This seems inevitable. Some AMPTP members want an end to the work stoppage, and some don’t at all (taking a blatantly union-busting approach). Bowman et al are well aware that reason (to company self-interest) generally wins out. For instance, NBC is the most susceptible to shareholder pressure — since the network is a relatively small piece of General Electric, whose share price has dropped from 40-1/2 to under 37 since the strike began — so it would make perfect sense for CEO Jeff Immelt to demand interim agreements to prevent continued erosion of shareholder value (GE’s other option is to sell NBC, which would be Zucker’s greatest fear). There is no reason why Lionsgate wouldn’t be among the first-in-line on the feature side; they’ve built their success entirely by going head-to-head with the majors (remember how they showed up Disney when Eisner threw away Farhenheit 911?). An interim agreement for them would give tremendous competitive advantage, since they can bolster their distribution film slate while the majors run theirs dry (and they can keep their TV business active, thus drawing on available talent & in essence doing something heroic for the creative community). Why Steven Jobs as the major shareholder of Disney (whose stock has likewise dropped since the strike started) wouldn’t support interim agreements would be a surprise; ABC’s Steve McPherson has the three hits (Lost, GA & DHs) most vulnerable to disappearing altogether with a prolonged strike. Also, continued efforts to unify AMPTP make them more prone to obvious collusion challenges, that are likely now that the WGA is taking their fight from the picket-lines to Washington DC at a time when politicians are eager to throw them support.
Comment by thom taylor — December 15, 2007 @ 2:49 pm
Thom, what you’re saying doesn’t make any sense. If NBC is such a small part of GE, why would there be more leverage within GE? It only makes sense if NBC were a bigger part of the company. The whole stock market is down more than two percent this week. The drop in share price has nothing to do with the strike. If the rest of the market were up, MAYBE could make that argument. If anything, GE has putting pressure on NBC to cut costs so they can sell it but at this point that’s like putting lipstick on a pig.
Comment by J — December 15, 2007 @ 3:00 pm
Common Sense, what if we just call you a little ray of sunshine?
Comment by Caitlin — December 15, 2007 @ 3:17 pm
This would really be great. The AMPTP tries to splinter the WGA and end the Guild as we know it (just IMAGINE the hikes in CEO bonuses and stock value if there were no MBA or pension/health!), and as a result, the AMTP gets broken into the million little pieces it (legally) should be.
“Grasping for straws” my ass. (Plus the expression is grasping atstraws… seriously, who’s writing these press releases, Biff Tannen? Next we’re going to hear Nick Counter tell Patric Verrone to “make like a tree and get out of here.”) Lobbying Congress to break up the AMPTP and seeking individual negotiations are not desperate moves; they’re smart ones. The moguls just aren’t willing to believe the WGA leadership is getting smarter with every day off the job, since their own people are obviously getting dumber by the second.
Comment by Nick — December 15, 2007 @ 3:20 pm
“Common Sense” wrote…
“I realize that we writers have active imaginations, but the notion that the Guild will be able to break the unity of the companies is, to this former attorney and produced screenwriter, PURE FANTASY.
This strategy, together with our recent filing of a federal labor complaint and our reassertion of reality, animation and the “no-strike” clause is, I’m sad to say, a very desperate hand of cards we’re playing. Sadder still, it didn’t have to be like this.
I’m surprised this hasn’t been commented on more, but in a very real sense, this dispute was over on November 4, when the Guild gave on DVDs and got BUBKES in return. That was the strongest card we had to play, and the moment we gave on it, the end game was in sight.
We are told that our negotiators caved on DVDs because they were led to believe that a major concession on new media was forthcoming. Why our negotiators didn’t insist on hearing this “concession” before giving on DVDs, our biggest chit to give, remains the most infuriating fuck-up of this whole negotiation. At that moment, we were screwed.
Now we are trying to take our weakest cards — the demands that no one in their right mind thought we had a realistic chance of achieving — and lumping them together in a transparent effort to create the same sort of leverage that the DVD issue gave us.
Not gonna happen.
So what next? Classic negotiation strategy (something our side hasn’t exactly followed, to put it mildly) would tell you that when there are no good outcomes left, you change your goals and pursue the least bad outcome. At this point, that means dropping these ancillary issues and salvaging the best deal possible on new media, the issue that working writers care about most. Yep. Craig Mazin had it right.
It won’t be a great deal — that ship sailed on December 4th — but it could still be a decent deal, and in any event, it is the deal we are going to get whether it is made on January 1st or June 1st.
You can call this dissent, shilling for the studios, whatever the hell you want. I call it common sense, something our leaders have displayed strikinkly little of. I call on all my fellow writers who feel as I do — and I know we are many — to let our leadership know that it is incumbent on them to get the companies back to the table and make a new media deal NOW.”
To this I reply -
“Common Sense”… no wonder you don’t practice law anymore… I would hate to have you representing me in any dispute. You’d advise me to make a quick, easy deal with the ex… and I would lose my ass. Show some backbone, putz!
1. I don’t think it would be considered far-fetched to try and break the unity between the companies when they are obsessively competitive against one another… or each others’ egos. That, and the fact that they are negotiating as one (the AMPTP0 could be ruled as an unlawful labor practice.
2. Your defeatist attitude sickens me. You claim that it didn’t have to be like this. How could it have been any other way? They are the ones that left the table… the WGA absolutely has to remain proactive.
3. DVD’s were our strongest playing card, huh? A dying technology that is rapidly being replaced by digital cable and the internet? It is, in fact, these residuals that we are fighting the hardest for, not DVD. Also, remember that after the WGA took DVD’s off the table, we got nothing in return. Still, you feel like it didn’t have to be like this and that THAT was our strongest card?
4. Yes, we currently have a whole list of other demands on the table. Some you may even construe as unrealistic. What is your point? That’s contract negotiating 101. Are you sure you ever practiced law?
5. You claim that the WGA hasn’t handled their negotiation tactics with finesse, yet they are the only party that is even willing to negotiate. Thus far, they have SAG on their side, DGA waiting on the sidelines, clear unity within the ranks (except for you) and a PR campaign that has made fools of the AMPTP and rallied the majority of Americans to their cause.
6. I will gladly (and rightfully) call your rambling, pessimistic rhetoric dissent. If you’re not shilling for the studios, then what the hell are you doing? You’re definitely not working towards helping the WGA’s cause. You call it common sense, I say it’s PURE FANTASY. Personally, I think you’re a hired jerk off trying to spread more baseless propaganda.
-Sloop John B
Comment by Sloop John B — December 15, 2007 @ 3:51 pm
Hear, hear to Common Sense! (post at 1:38 PM)
Finally someone saying what has been obvious for six weeks. This strike was over the moment we fired our only bullet and merely grazed the AMPTP’s thigh. I call upon all who feel this way to show up in force at Monday’s WGA rally. We want two things — a deal on New Media, and to get back to work.
Comment by TV Showrunner — December 15, 2007 @ 3:51 pm
In the event that NBC doesn’t take the opportunity to reach a separate peace with the Guild and then advertsiers keep demanding money back and bolt NBC’s scripted reruns for FOX or elsewhere, and then NBC doesn’t have any new scripted episodes to stream because they didn’t want to cut the writers a small slice of those profits, and little to sell in the way of new DVDs, and lose the Upfronts and then Immelt and Zucker report to shareholders that company profits are saggy because “We were afraid Peter Chernin would be mad at us,” they should be fired immediately.
Comment by Anonymous — December 15, 2007 @ 4:06 pm
I wonder what Harvey Weinstein will make of this? He could give a flying fuck about his relationship with other moguls, and his business is entirely features. Lions Gate too.
Comment by JB — December 15, 2007 @ 4:09 pm
This sounds a Hell of a lot better than filing a federal lawsuit. Whatever it takes to get us back to work guys! Divide and Conquer sounds a lot better than file lawsuit and wait.
Comment by SoonToBeUnemployed — December 15, 2007 @ 4:10 pm
Hey Common Sense,
Do you really think there was some great deal to be had on December 4th? Get real. Real common sense would tell you that the big boys had no intention of making any deal until at least after the new year. They were just posturing to get us to reveal how low we’d go. Yes, the guild fucked up in revealing our DVD card. But the notion that they missed out on a “great” deal is absurd. When the AMPTP is ready to settle this thing, it will be settled.
Comment by 50 Sense — December 15, 2007 @ 4:11 pm
The WGA is delusional. If there is anything the Producers understand in a negotiation, it is leverage. Whether the WGA will admit it or not, the producers, through their unity, have the leverage now and for at least the next few months. The last thing they are going to do is give up that leverage. Some people seem to have this vision of a huge schism in ideology between the producers. While they may have slightly different points-of-view, they are not so different as to cause their partnership to collapse on itself.
Keep in mind that these may be separate companies but they are involved in all kinds of partnerships and co-productions. There is no way that they have any interest in separate deals with the WGA. That is where the comparison to the Auto companies falls apart. There is no vehicle jointly produced by Ford and GM, but there ARE many shows produced by one studio for another company, as well as features that are 50/50 co-productions.
The writers should stop dreaming of getting what they “deserve” and instead focus on a few key issues, make the best deal they can, and get back to work. Who doesn’t have a job where they think they are underpaid and undervalued. Welcome to life. Whatever deal they could get with some shrewd negotiating right now won’t be much different from the deal that is available 3-4 months from now. If they want to wait 12-16 months then maybe things would change, but that’s not going to happen.
Comment by Thinktwice — December 15, 2007 @ 4:25 pm
TV Showrunner said:
“We want two things — a deal on New Media, and to get back to work.”
Good negotiating position. But will you settle for one of those things? If so, Nick Counter would be happy to make a deal with you.
Comment by Nick — December 15, 2007 @ 4:28 pm
“We want to do everything in our power to move negotiations forward and end this devastating strike.” This is the first honest press release I’ve seen from the WGA — recognizing the devastating effect their strike has had on the rest of us. Clearly this was not written by David Young. Like Nikki said, if the UAW can negotiate with Ford, GM, and Chrysler and not “big auto” then why can’t the WGA?
Comment by SoonToBeUnemployed — December 15, 2007 @ 4:38 pm
Gavin Polone’s tireless prognosticating here brings to mind a very important question: what happens to Gavin Polone’s bottom line when the forces majeure start a-thunderin’ down?
Comment by Fly on WGA Wall — December 15, 2007 @ 5:04 pm
mr palone has it exactly correct. the union’s missteps 2 weeks ago brought the amptp together. this offer isn’t going to break them up again. they smell blood in the water and a deal with the pga. they’re on the road to victory and they know it. before union leadership decided it was more important to get animation, reality and the right to sympathy strike, maybe they would have had a chance to divide and conquer. zero chance now.
Comment by tvexec — December 15, 2007 @ 5:34 pm
Sloop John B–
Wouldn’t it show some “backbone,” as you say, if you were to use your real name when you call people names? Everything Common Sense says is defensible and logical. You make a lot of comments about negotiations and the law: what have you negotiated, other than your divorce? If you were correct about the AMPTP not having the right to negotiate for the studios, why hasn’t the guild filed a suit stating that claim? Because they can conduct the negotiations this way. They can’t collude in negotiations with individuals but they can against a union.
Most of what you say is wrong or not thought out or too disjointed to understand. Homevid sales this year will be $23Billion vs. Internet revenue of $775Million. It will be far beyond the term of the current contract being negotiated when the later out weighs the former. The DGA has broken ranks. IATSE was never with them. The American public, for the most part, doesn’t know or care about what is going on with the strike.
But, I guess, there is no accountability when you are anonymous, huh.
Fly on the WGA wall–
Thanks for your interest in my finances. The answer is: nothing will happen to my bottom line when the “forces majeure start a-thunderin’ down”.
Comment by Gavin Polone — December 15, 2007 @ 5:38 pm
wtf said:
“I would only argue that the strongest moment for us was the day before we went on strike.”
And even then, the AMPTP wouldn’t give up shit even in exchange for tabling the DVD demand. So it was strike or nothing. True, the WGA doesn’t get stronger the longer the strike goes on — but the AMPTP sure as hell gets weaker because their supply of product is dwindling. The UAW strikes, and after a while Ford has no cars to ship out. Same thing here. The only difference is that Ford wouldn’t be dumb enough to go to their shareholders and say stuff like, “Y’know, this whole ’selling cars’ thing isn’t really that important to our bottom line. We’re gonna be okay, seriously.”
Comment by Nick — December 15, 2007 @ 6:19 pm
Sloop John B -
What you call defeatism I call realism. The DVD issue, or the concession thereof, was indeed our strongest card, because it impacted the studios in the one place we were capable of making them feel it: their bottom line.
The fact that it achieved us zilch has nothing to do with the value of DVDs as a negotiating tool and EVERYTHING to do with the fact that our negotiators bungled it, pure and simple.
Here’s where we agree: the only way forward is to be proactive.
I say the best way to do that is to jettison the issues that for various reasons are absolute losers for us, and make the best deal we can on the one issue that truly matters for us and future generations of writers: new media. You apparently, feel the best way to do this is to follow the failed strategies of the very people who, however well-intentioned they are, got us into this mess in the first place.
I can almost here GWB saying “Stay the course” when I read your post.
So let me get this straight. Instead of spending the next four weeks negotiating a deal that will allow us to support our families, we will spend the next four months delivering pencils, filing NLRB complaints whose chances of success are marginal (at best), and trying to get Les Moonves (Les Fucking Moonves!) to cut a side-deal with the writers?
Yeah, that sounds like a winner….
Comment by Common Sense — December 15, 2007 @ 6:39 pm
Common Sense, you’re aware you’re not making any, correct?
You rightly point out that we stupidly gave up DVDs in exchange for nothing but lies and empty promises, so your solution is to surrender everything else in hopes that the AMPTP, out of the goodness of its heart, will actually make a deal on new media, which they’ve given no concrete indication they’re prepared to do. Without any guarantee and without any leverage. Well, okay then. I feel confident that after we unilaterally surrender the second time, they won’t just say ha ha suckers and walk out of negotiations for a third time.
Comment by anon — December 15, 2007 @ 7:13 pm
My prediction: Disney/ABC cuts rank and makes a deal first.
Reasons:
1) The image of Disney in the public eye. Disney relies on the family friendly image to sell not just entertainment but all related merchandising. If the WGA really wants to make them hurt, start depicting Mickey as a union-buster.
2) Primacy of the ABC lineup retained. Can be only network to have new current programming.
4) Disney can afford the long view– they have perfected the art of releasing/rereleasing/repurposing content (It’s a movie! It’s a Broadway play! It’s “on ice”! It’s a theme park ride! It’s… you get the picture.) They may lose money in the short term but they’ll be making money off a writer’s product long after that writer’s kids are grown, have kids of their own, die and are buried.
Of course, this could all be wishful thinking… but ironically, wasn’t it Disney who taught me that a wish is a dream your heart makes?
Comment by TC — December 15, 2007 @ 7:33 pm
Wow, the AMPTP astroturfers are out in force tonight.
I smell fear.
Comment by john Brownlow — December 15, 2007 @ 7:45 pm
“Common Sense” and his followers (or possibly just Common Sense, congratulating himself under another name) say the strike’s already over. Writers should just give up all demands and all other attempts to negotiate. “We need a deal on New Media, and to go back to work!”
Because giving up all your demands and rolling over is certainly the best way to negotiate a “decent” deal on New Media. This doesn’t even make sense — either common, or any other kind. *There has been no deal on New Media.* Not even close. $250 a year? Keep it — zero would be less insulting.
“Give up everything! Don’t bargain, just beg! That’s the best way to get the AMPTP to make a decent deal… not that I’m an AMPTP shill or anything.”
Yeah. Glad we’re clear on that.
Comment by Watcher — December 15, 2007 @ 8:00 pm
I’ve been having this sense that the CEO’s “Just cant” break from the AMPTP because of other sorts of “collusion” between the big companies. I don’t want to make accusations that are not based on any facts, but I could imagine…
Comment by writer on strike — December 15, 2007 @ 8:09 pm
I’m getting very weary of the shills that are on here, mostly because of the lame writing.
I don’t believe that anyone who has reached the rank of a showrunner in television would, on their drunkest day, type the following:
“Hear, hear!”
The cliche is, of course, “Here, here!”
Any showrunner, as well as your average high school grauduate, would know that.
Dearest AMPTP, please, for the love of God, get someone literate to pretend to be disgruntled showrunners.
Comment by WGA Writer with Business Sense — December 15, 2007 @ 8:41 pm
Divide and conquer WILL work, Gavin.
Just add a carrot. Offer the first company to agree with all our demands the chance to have a six-month window ahead of any other studio. We just won’t agree to anything at all except all our bargaining points, plus one percent per month with any other studio or network for a guaranteed six months.
That will be such a juicy bone, one of the studions will fold. And when they do, one or two others will to.
The “fuck you” attitude they have with each other any other day of the woeek will return.
We have to throw in som meat and let them tear it - and each other - apart.
Comment by anotherWGAmemberer — December 15, 2007 @ 9:11 pm
This is my dream.
The AMPTP comes back to the table…and the WGA doesn’t. Instead of striking and picketing, we start writing like crazy for new media and independents. We just walk away from the big studios. Itll be scary for a while…but exciting, too. We’ll be writing things we’re passionate about without their big studio “How do they know each other” notes. Plus, we’ll be able to hire actors who aren’t on the “A-list,” but are brilliant at what they do.
As for TV, let them hire non-union writers. Maybe some real Scranton paper company workers could take over “The Office.” And while they’re struggling to learn about story structure, the real “office” writers can launch “The Cubicle” online. With network numbers dropping and web numbers rising, it won’t take long for the two to hit parity.
This is my dream.
Comment by a writer — December 15, 2007 @ 9:24 pm
Gavin, I will say (if no one else will) that your analysis and predictions have been pretty spot on. The people who call you names just don’t want to hear the truth.
Comment by Dave — December 15, 2007 @ 9:32 pm
Gavin, you’re an idiot. WGA is gaining some real leverage. GE CEO Jeff Immelt (who is not all puffed up) has ALREADY reported to shareholders that the strike is hitting home.
Check out this direct quote from Media Daily News:
On December 12, General Electric CEO Jeff Immelt told investors on Tuesday that he is cutting profit projections for NBCU for the fourth quarter, citing the “impact of the strike.”
THIS IS BIG NEWS AND GOES AGAINST THE AMPTP PARTY LINE.
Comment by NBC insider — December 16, 2007 @ 3:00 am
Gavin,
My real name isn’t important… yours, on the other hand, is. I am not going on FOX News preaching Goebbels-inspired propaganda to the masses and undermining the writer’s cause. You are.
Remember, the only contracts that we know that you have ever negotiated (besides abandoning your writers in favor of the studio/network interests time and time again… what you called “killing for them”) are the lawsuits that arose from your debacle at UTA. Thanks for filling the public record with sleazy tales of reckless drug and alcohol use, prostitution, masturbation, sexual harassment and expense-account fraud. That, and you probably have had to do some negotiating every time you visit your local Ferrari dealer.
I think it can be successfully argued that the biggest success you had in this business were on the backs of the brilliant WRITERS David Koepp, Andrew Kevin Walker and Larry David. Personally, I don’t see how you could turn your backs on them now.
For the record, I’m not the first that has cited the AMPTP as a potential collusion problem. The corporatization of Hollywood (as well as America) is a severe worry to many… by negotiating as one entity, the studios are dangerously close to becoming a monopoly.
So, home video sales this year will be $23 Billion vs. Internet revenue of $775 Million. I thought that the AMPTP claimed that it was too early and near impossible to get a clear idea of the potential revenue that new media/internet may bring its coffers. Yet, you seem to have it all figured out already.
Have you not noticed that DVD prices have plummeted? Visit any department store and check out all the new titles in the bargain bin. Go to any local electronics store and take a gander at the new line of LCD and Plasma televisions. Nearly all of them are compatible with your home computer and can be readily be used as a monitor. Why? Because five years from now, the family television will have been replaced by the computer. All movies will be downloaded instead of rented or store bought. Television will be the same.
Also, the DGA is no friend to the AMPTP. They appear to be patiently waiting on the sidelines, measuring the eventual outcome of the current WGA conflict. To use my own war analogy, they’re like the British and Americans in WWII. Allies to the Soviets for sure, but wise enough to let the Russians shoulder most of the fighting in Europe and weigh the eventual outcome before invading the Nazis at Normandy. I thought this analogy would have a bit more merit for you, since you obviously believe that the WGA has been infiltrated by the communists.
The more time that elapses without their favorite television shows, the more the American public will care. (Or tune out altogether.) The longer this strike is prolonged, the more America will rally behind the WGA. Letterman, like Carson in the 80’s, will denounce the AMPTP nightly and inform his viewers about what’s really going on and what is truly at stake here.
Regardless, thanks for continually to offer up your own skewed opinion.
- Sloop John B
Comment by Sloop John B — December 16, 2007 @ 7:03 am
Quick General Comments…
I truly believe that the DVD concession was absolutely the right move at that time. It was a major concession that not only showed we were willing to negotiate, but it also highlighted the fact that this strike could easily have been avoided with a little effort on the opposing side and signalled the WGA understanding that fighting a 20 year old fight is waste of time, particularly when the express train of new media promises to completely change the way we do business in Hollywood…
The AMPTP unwillingness to even DISCUSS New Media in a realistic manner (shown by their ridiculous offer and their bi-weekly “storming away from the tables” and then blaming the writers) shows that they think they’re in a knife fight that they intend to win. Their inability to break our ranks, win popular support and their inability salvage their TV seasons, shows that they have no idea how to do it…
Giving up reality tv and animation does nothing to jump start negotiations because it in no way alters their key concern. In the end, they’ll just find another issue, which again won’t be “new media”, that they’ll demand we take off the table before they’ll be willing to talk. This is just a stalling tactic to get our negotiators to take as many of their bargining chips off the table before substantative talks can begin so that we’ll be forced to take the worst deal possible.
As far as I’m concerned everything else; the NLRB complaint, attempting to negotiate with individual entities and not the AMPTP, AMPTP press releases that all but call our negotiators Bolsheviks, etc, are merely Kabuki theatre to gain support of the public while the real business at hand is being dealt with…
If mistakes have been made by our side, well nobody has ever done this before and by that I mean, I’m pretty sure nobody has ever attempted to get something from 6 multi-national media conglomerates that they don’t want to give (cause on the one hand you have corporations not willing to give anything, and on the other you have studio heads that are used to writers giving in on EVERYTHING, ALL THE TIME). This may take a while, so settle in and get used to lots and lots of PR moves that highlight the WGA willing to negotiate, while the AMPTP tosses back smokescreen after to smokescreen to justify their Draconian negotiating tactics.
We’ve slowed production, kept our alliance with SAG, and influenced the actions of the DGA… The only thing keep us from getting the deal we deserve is the division amongst the ranks.
That said…
You got a question, think the negotiating committee is making mistakes; go ask them why they’re doing what they’re doing. I’ve been on the line everyday for six weeks and have found they’re really easy to find and easier to talk to…
Meanwhile, keep your eye on the ball. EVERYTHING that you read, every PR move, every threat, every insult tossed, every table bang is ABOUT NEW MEDIA regardless of what the headline reads. They want to give us nothing, and we want, essentially, what we’ve been getting as residuals for the past 40 years, and what we gave up ALL OUR COPYRIGHTS for. Its not even something new or groundbreaking…
Could be a long fight, could be a short fight; but in the end, it IS a fight. Punches will be thrown, hits will be taken, and in the end someone is going down.
They’ve got deep pockets and we’ve got our strike lines, public opinion, the potential SAG strike in July over exactly the same issue, and a DGA that’s withheld stabbing us in the back for a WHOLE TWO INCREDIBLE MONTHS (I bet the AMPTP didn’t expect that). So let’s see…
Comment by Craig — December 16, 2007 @ 7:26 am
Wow, what happened here.
Suddenly this board is full of “I’m with you WGA, but you’re fucked because of A) your leadership sucks and needs to be replaced, and b) you should have never gone on strike.”
Call me conspiratorial minded, but this sudden influx of similar - and very pro AMPTP agenda - views is a bit suspicious.
Comment by Writer/Director — December 16, 2007 @ 7:59 am
Is any writer really going to work for/with Gavin Palone again?
Only in Hollywood could sleeze balls like this manage to do so well for themselves.
Hollywood isn’t a cup of milk, it’s a cup of pond water… and scum, not cream, rises to the top.
Comment by wowee — December 16, 2007 @ 8:11 am
Wow, this is becoming exactly what the companies were hoping for. A few dissenting voices in the ranks riling up both sides. If I’m not mistaken, this is what happened in ‘88. A few voices said “it’s not worth it” and now they get the same lousy residual. Was that a part of the plan?
I hope not. I see nothing wrong with wanting reality and animation. The Freemantle rally showed that reality wants in. But then it maybe a little hard to understand why a person WOULD WANT overtime or health benefits.
It doesn’t seem like that is a sticking point. The fact that AMPTP now calls the WGA organizer instead of negotiators and greedy instead of employees watching costs go down and revenue go up from their work.
It’s not the WGA’s fault that companies make first dollar deals and waste money on development hell and then even more on an antiquated distribution system. It’s like they don’t understand what entertainment of the masses is and refuse to take cues from people who spend their whole day contemplating McKee and Hitchcock or Seger and Scorsese.
As a member of the American Screenwriter’s Association who is working hard to get in the WGA, I have to back the negotiating committee as they have as much to lose as the OTHER WRITERS. The negotiating committee IS made up of writers.
I also hope that the strike comes to an end soon, but that seems to be up to Counter.
Comment by Christian Howell — December 16, 2007 @ 8:19 am
Yo Nick,
It’s going to be a long long long long long wait to have the sort of product shortage you suggest… Seriously, a year or so if you think about it. We somehow think the television audience won’t watch game shows and reality shows. American Idol gets more audience each week than the super bowl gets. Television will turn into a 24/7 talent show. Theatrical releases will be spread out to fill the calendar year– and many will continue to shoot for the next year or so. This waiting game is stupid. What you miss (and maybe don’t remember from ‘88) is that the waiting game also makes US desperate– most of us who aren’t at the top of the hyphenated food chain. While you say the studios will suffer, the studio bosses know full well WE will.
Comment by wtf — December 16, 2007 @ 8:21 am
Common Sense–well said.
If there is a WGA strategy at work here, and given the way Verrone et al have handled this situation thus far I sincerely doubt there is, then it is a flawed one devised by people who have no business negotiating nine figure media deals. What’s next? Your guess is as good as theirs.
This is business and should be conducted as such, without the paranoia, emotion and arrogance that has defined both sides thus far. The DGA has hired Ken Ziffren to craft their proposals and guide their strategy and I, for one, applaud them for doing so. It’s time for the WGA to hire a professional, experienced, hard ass, media business negotiator. There are plenty of them out there who, like my fellow guild members, aren’t doing anything right now except watching this entire clusterfuck implode due to ineptitude and misplaced pride.
We all know this will be settled at some point, that is a given, so let’s send in professional negotiators to get it done, not a guy who wrote on “Martin” or a guy who wrote on “Futurama”. You know who negotiated the deals with the studios for Verrone and Bowman to go work on those shows? That’s right, their agents and their lawyers. There’s a reason (actually there are many reasons) why writers and directors don’t negotiate their own content deals directly with the studios. Think about it.
So here’s what I want for Christmas from my guild: Hire Ernie Del, hire Kevin Morris, hire Nina Shaw, hire Steve Lafferty, hire Peter Benedek, hire Jim Wiatt, hire Chris SIlbermann, hire Ari Emanuel, but for christs sake hire SOMEONE who knows their way around a proper negotiation, empower them to make a deal on our behalf, and let’s get it done.
Comment by Pete Aronson — December 16, 2007 @ 8:23 am
People keep talking about these so-called “desperate attempts” by the WGA but all I see is desperate attempts by the AMPTP. Media spin, walking away from the table like petulant children, and ordering up a slate of new reality shows (seriously, American Gladiators, Clash of the Choirs?).
Independent negotiating is a smart move. DWtS may do great for ABC but I don’t see “Duel” pulling in the same numbers. Some people have a lot to gain others don’t. It’s a good strategy not a desperate one.
Comment by shanna — December 16, 2007 @ 10:23 am
An observation. I don’t claim to be a master strategist, or a labor historian, I’m just a writer. But I do feel the need to disabuse both the trolls and the wavering writers of one notion. The people who run the networks are not the business geniuses that many of you all seem to believe. Unlike their counterparts in aerospace, and silicon valley, they are famously slow to adapt to a changing market and this sluggishness has cost them dearly. NBC, under Mr. Zucker’s watch has plummeted from 1st to 4th place. Last year they lost nearly a billion dollars. In any other industry, that person would be fired. JZ was promoted.
These companies are counting on and exploiting our own insecurities. They’re the adults and we’re the difficult children. I think many of us who have survived innumerable pitches and inane notes calls have come to see these folks as our betters. They are not. We create and succeed, in spite of these people, not because of them. And as far as this strike goes we have one more thing on our side… we are right. And that matters.
Stay strong.
Comment by Clever fake name — December 16, 2007 @ 11:33 am
If the studio executives are thinking that the public is going to be watching nauseating reality TV while they twiddle their fingers in hope that the writers will cave in, they are wrong. I won’t be watching. My children won’t be watching. We are bored. And we won’t be buying any product from a company that advertises on reality tv. Give me a break. Pay the writers. I want good programs or I’m turning off the TV.
Comment by Alvin — December 16, 2007 @ 11:39 am
NBC Insider–
Okay, Immelt said that NBC, which accounts for 13% of GE profits, is going to take a hit. Do you think that they’ll now agree to things that will greatly impact earnings down the road? I doubt it. I think NBC has an earnings issue because the shows they developed last year are failing. The WGA strike has impacted their development, which is worse for them than the others, but not something that is immediately impactful to their bottom line. Still, I agree, the strike is worse for them than the others. Leno going back will help, though. But you’re an insider, so you would know. Or are you? Who are you? Don’t be afraid. Be brave and come out into the light of day, so everyone can judge the validity of what you say as an NBC Insider. If you’re someone who really is connected to the information stream, your thoughts will really help everyone to figure things out.
Sloop John B–
You’re correct your name is not important. It is just amusing that you take offense when I state my opinions in public but your anonymous, insult filled posts show “backbone”. Can’t agree with you there. You seem to be the definition of a coward.
Pretty much everything in your post is inaccurate. Since you don’t think what you’re saying is worthy of attaching your name, I won’t waste the time to address your false claims.
Craig–
Very well reasoned post. I wish others could see that losing the invective makes one more influential.
I agree with much of what you say, especially your thinking that it might take a long time to achieve a real gain in the new media category. You talk about the increased leverage that will occur in July if SAG joins you on strike. What do you think the chances are that the WGA leaders will be able to keep its members in-line for another 7 months? Consider that the DGA will have made a deal by then, many non-writers will have been out of work for a long time and IATSE will become even more vehement in their protestations. Do you really think that some WGA members, who are in financial peril, might not go fi-core?
Again, I, and am sure others, appreciate your reasoning and your tone.
Comment by Gavin Polone — December 16, 2007 @ 2:18 pm
Gavin Polone used to be my agent. In that capacity, he undoubtedly did my career more harm than good, but, nonetheless, I’ve been able to enjoy a long and successful run.
I understand why people on this blog are so upset at Polone’s comments. Unfortunately, in this situation, his analysis has been, and continues to be, spot on.
He will be proven right when the history of this collective bargaining disaster is written.
Comment by Veteran Writer — December 16, 2007 @ 2:52 pm
Sloop John B,
You can go home.
Comment by Captain — December 16, 2007 @ 5:27 pm
“WGA Writer with Business Sense” said:
I’m getting very weary of the shills that are on here, mostly because of the lame writing.
I don’t believe that anyone who has reached the rank of a showrunner in television would, on their drunkest day, type the following:
“Hear, hear!”
The cliche is, of course, “Here, here!”
Any showrunner, as well as your average high school grauduate, would know that.
Dearest AMPTP, please, for the love of God, get someone literate to pretend to be disgruntled showrunners.
——
http://www.straightdope.com/mailbag/mhear.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hear_hear
So, you know, feel free to go fuck yourself.
I am a showrunner of 15 years experience, in full command of my cliches. The widespread notion here that any dissent must originate with the AMPTP is laughable — that is, when it’s not pitiful.
Comment by T — December 16, 2007 @ 7:40 pm
I am unconcerned with the many personal inadequacies Gavin Polone alleges about himself. But his opinion about the strike seems ridiculously off-base. The notion that the writers should take hundreds of millions from DVD sales off the table merely because the producers are holding out is little short of absurd.
The divide-and-conquer strategy now being offered is canny: Any network which comes to an agreement before the others is in a position to reap both immediate and long-term profits due to increased good-will and new agreements with the writers (particularly show runners). Also, the first network to air fresh scripted programming will enjoy a significant ratings bonanza vis-a-vis the other networks.
There is also the question of whether Letterman with writers will gain a boost against Leno and Kimmel without writers.
While reality TV has a large and growing audience, there are a great many for whom the appetite for reality TV is nonexistent, or at least limited (recall how Who Wants to be a Millionaire? ratings cratered after they started running it several days a week). The studios will survive regardless, but a long strike could damage the major networks immeasurably–in a single year, they could see their audience share dive more than it has in the last decade. This will cost them far more in the long run than the writers’ demands.
People who have never tuned in to a television show are unlikely to watch it online or buy series DVDs. The question really is if the networks are willing to kill the goose that laid the golden eggs…in hopes of making more gold?
Comment by Andrew Dibakdsib — December 16, 2007 @ 8:38 pm
Common Sense -
Realistically speaking, if the DVD issue was indeed our “ace in the hole” and the WGA’s strongest playing card… then why did we so irresponsibly throw it out? Although I do agree it was foolhardy to sacrifice that issue so readily, I do not believe our leadership was so incompetent that they didn’t have a auxiliary plan. It is quite possible we are seeing this plan B enacted with the saturation bombing of the NLRB complaint, the Letterman deal, jacked AMPTP website, open offer to deal with the studios individually, and the call for DGA to hold off their own negotiations.
The longer the DGA remains mute with the AMPTP, the closer we get to SAG’s concurrent contract expiration. Certainly, the AMPTP wants a deal in place with them (and the WGA) before then. There are other issues to contend with as well. Obviously, the WGA is being very proactive… and it could prove that this is only their opening barrage. Is this the failed strategy you speak of? Only time will tell us that. To prematurely judge the outcome before all the results are in and concede defeat is well… defeatist and silly.
Again, the value of DVD residuals will pale in comparison to the “unknown” potential of the internet and digital media. As we have already witnessed in the music industry, album sales have subsided drastically over the last few years. When you witness artists like J-Lo flooding the airwaves with television commercials prompting their fans to get online and download their new record, you have to admit that the jig is up on CD’s. DVD manufacturers (as well as Blu-Ray and HD DVD) will soon face the same predicament. You can’t fight the emergence of new technology… you can only try and adapt to it. Just ask any one of the old telephone companies or the numerous early countries (the hapless French) that unfortunately succumbed to the German blitzkrieg.
Lastly, it wasn’t the failure of the WGA’s leadership that got us in this current predicament… it was the unwillingness of the AMPTP to offer even the slightest semblance of a fair and respectable deal… by anyone’s standards. You seem to only grasp the now, while I favor protecting our future. Ole George W. advocates “staying the course” to help protect his own legacy. The WGA doesn’t have that luxury. They’re staying the course because it appears to be the only path left untaken. The others were roadblocked. Now, we are fighting to simply co-exist as a prominent member of this industry. To make a bad deal now, could be construed as mass suicide on the writer’s part.
Yeah, that sounds like a real winner…
- Sloop John B
Comment by Sloop John B — December 16, 2007 @ 8:59 pm
T,
that was funny.
Comment by Anonymous — December 17, 2007 @ 12:36 am
Mr. Polone
You asked if I thought the WGA could hold they’re ranks together for 7 months till SAG was able to join us.
In response, I’ll quickly go through my “Armageddon Scenario”
The AMPTP holds out till mid-January and begins negotiating with the DGA. Best case scenario, they offer them sweet deal that they can’t offer the WGA ’cause they can’t afford to lose this pissing match. This deal, although not exactly what everybody dreamed of, is not so incredibly insulting that it drives the WGA and SAG into their bunkers and then, once the WGA negotiators are “sufficently humiliated” by being shown “how easily deals can be made if you just ask nicely”, we all get back to work by March.
Worse case scenario, the AMPTP, sticking to their guns and refuse to negotiate the DGA’s proposals for New Media (and I assure you that they have proposals and that they’re not that dissimilar to the WGA’s). So let’s say, the DGA swallows their pride and takes a shitty deal. Let’s consider what that will do to their prestige. 1) Although most members of the DGA don’t see “dollar one” of any residual package, they also represent actual directors that do, and by signing a deal isn’t substantially better than what the AMPTP is offering the WGA, the DGA will be screwing over their big money-makers for all time (for an example, look how long the DVD rate has stood unmoved for 20 years and calculate the 100’s of millions of dollars lost by the DGA, SAG, and WAG by that horrible deal) and that won’t be pretty, 2) The DGA would be put be in the position of becoming the Guild “that couldn’t get it done” and not only was the first to cave to AMPTP, but that also betrayed her sister unions by “colluding the enemy” and giving them a major PR victory during the most important negotiation of this generation, and 3) if they don’t get that substantial bump from the AMPTP that at least brings the WGA and AMPTP back to the table then they’re contract will have absolutely not impact on the strike or on the coming strike in July from SAG. If anything it will harden everyone’s resolve which brings us to my final points…
If the DGA caves, then it will be up to SAG, if they’re as much in our camp as they say, they’ll begin their negotiations as soon as DGA puts up their hypothetical bad deal up to a vote of their membership (The earliest I see this happening is in early March). This will destroy any PR victory that the AMPTP might have gained by getting the DGA on their side, by their instantly losing SAG.
The SAG negotiators, being offered the same hypothetical shitty deal that the DGA hypothetically took, will continue negotiating while they begin rallying their members which not only will bring much needed emotional support to the WGA who would have been on strike for five months, but it will also highlight that this is an industry wide negotiation. As soon as they think they can get a strong majority, SAG will then ask for strike authorization (I think that the earliest that this can get done is mid-April, but probably won’t get done till May).
With that in hand, the WGA could easily head back to work, WITHOUT A CONTRACT while continuing to negotiate. I say this’ cause even if we were to get back to work, it would take a month to get the wheels back in place and then as soon as work would be ready to begin, SAG would go on strike. At this point, after 9 months of being on the line, with writers working but angry, SAG not working at all and the DGA rendered irrelevant by their collusion, not only will have the AMPTP lost the the second half of the 2007-2008 season, not only will they have lost the first half of the 2008-2009 season, but their sister studios will have put in jeapordy their entire 2009 slate, specifically their 2009 blockbusters, literally having lost BILLIONS of dollars.
Being on the line, I think I can honestly say, despite whatever disagreements that occur amongst the rank and file, it’s never about what we’re fighting for (New Media), but only about how we’re going to get our fair share.
This WGA/SAG strategy is something that has been developed and nurtured for a couple years. This strike was called for maximum efficiency and at the end of the day, our greatest strength is the AMPTP intransigence and greed.
As long as they stay greedy and mean, we’ll stay on the line.
Hope to see you there too…
Comment by craig — December 17, 2007 @ 6:20 am
Why is Gavin Polone still talking?
Comment by TVWriter — December 17, 2007 @ 8:20 am