UPDATE: Paramount has now revised upwards its opening estimates for Iron Man when it opens May 2nd to $60M-$70M, which sounds about right.
I've been seeing ridiculous projections for Iron Man's domestic gross when it opens May 2nd just because it's come on very strong tracking-wise. Not that the sight of Marvel, who put up the money, and Paramount, the distributor, tearing their hair out over these too-high expectations isn't immense fun for me to watch. But there's a need to put forward some realistic numbers, at least at this early point. (I'll refine the numbers as the release date approaches...)Forget those $80 million or even $90 million and wild $100 million predictions for the 3-day opening weekend in around 4,000 theaters. My box office gurus are telling me that the PG-13 pic should make a good $50M to $60M (though I don't believe the studio's claim it would be thrilled with even $45M). It's true that Paramount is trying to lower expectations right now. Even the execs say this is not exactly Marvel's best-known comic book character. And the star Robert Downey Jr has never been able to open a movie. And Jon Favreau soiled his rep as Elf's hitmaker with Zathura. 
Plus, right-wing and/or lefty types might consider the whole plot of the movie to be politically incorrect. And the Iron Man action figure toy sitting on my desk is cheezy beyond belief. And the beyond-hot video game Grand Theft Auto IV is released April 29th. I could go on and on. But the marketing has been smart, and the trailer plays swell. So let's look at the numbers for top Marvel character non-sequel openings: Spider-Man broke the bank with $115M because it was one of the best known in the stable. Hulk opened to $62M. Fantastic Four to $56M. X-Men to $54M, GhostRider to $52M (4-day wkd) and Daredevil to $45M (4-day wkd). Now, hopefully, you'll ignore all that crazy talk.
Actually, Nikki, Iron Man is fairly well known among comic fans; maybe as much as X-Men was before they had a movie series. Also, Iron Man has what I call the gizmo factor, which relates to what Will Smith calls the creature factor (Will Smith believes that movies that feature creatures like Men In Black have a better shot at big box office). People (i.e., dudes) like gizmo movies like Transformers; if there’s some pre-awareness (like from a graphic novel/comic series/remake) then these movies can have real legs. Also, with event movies like these, they don’t necessarily need a star to open them; if anything, someone like Downey/Terrence Howard is more a sop to critics…
Comment by Test Pattern Blues — April 15, 2008 @ 6:31 pm
For those of you keeping score at home, this is a comic book movie launching 3 days after Grand Theft Auto. Remember Halo 3? If someone offers you $40M, you should bet the under.
Comment by Naysayer — April 15, 2008 @ 6:33 pm
Wow, I thought I was going to go the whole day without throwing up in my mouth a little and then I had to come here and see someone talk about an actor not being able to open a movie. You want to talk “old and creaky,” let’s talk about the notion of box office being in any way tied to the profile of the actor(s) involved.
Comment by Nick — April 15, 2008 @ 6:47 pm
I can say one thing for sure. Every guy in the world who saw the part in the trailer where Iron Man flies alongside F22-Raptors, is going to see this film. And every guy who hears about it, is going to see the film too. It’s just too rock in roll not to.
But for what it’s worth, I don’t know why they aren’t opening on April 25th. You would think any exec would want as much room as possible before Speed Racer and Indiana Jones plays. That one week difference could mean millions in my humble opinion.
Comment by John M. — April 15, 2008 @ 7:08 pm
There has been absolutely no concrete evidence tying the release of a hit video game to a decrease in box office. Heartbreak Kid didn’t flop because of Halo 3-it flopped because the movie was terrible. If people really want to see Iron Man, they’ll take a 2 hour break from playing Grand Theft Auto and go see it.
Comment by Can't Take it Anymore — April 15, 2008 @ 8:20 pm
While I’m sure GTA IV will take SOME business away from IRON MAN, I can’t see fanboys not making time on the weekend to see a 2 hour movie (plus line-up time, of course)
I’m picking ‘over 40′ and at least 70 mil.
Comment by Brian A. — April 15, 2008 @ 8:22 pm
I’d go with the higher rather than the lower end of estimates. The trailers are fantastic, with great laugh lines as well as effects shots. They’ve made people genuinely excited to see the film in a way that I haven’t heard people talk about very many other superhero movies.
Comment by Zack — April 15, 2008 @ 8:49 pm
Nikki you forgot the craziest talk of all: that Iron Man has a shot at topping Indiana Jones or The Dark Knight. The tracking released is based souly on awareness; just imagine how The Dark Knight will track when it’s awareness is at 100% a month out. Thatll show just how accurate this stuff is.
Iron Man has had the best marketing since Fantastic Four and has less competition. Saying it will open around 45-50 is as wrong as saying it will open around 90-100. This pic is guarenteed to drop between 60 and 75. No way it does more or less. It wont top 200 million.
Comment by leo — April 15, 2008 @ 8:55 pm
<>
Oh yeah… this is a GREAT reason people won’t go to a heavily-hyped movie.
Teenager to another teenager: “Hmmm… this Ironman has really cool previews all over the place and the comic was killer, but perhaps we should skip it. After all, the film is directed by the well-known Jon Favreau who did wonderfully with Elf but then just couldn’t come through with his next effort. Everybody in school will be talking about this on Monday, but since Favreau is involved, I say we pass.”
Teenager two: “Everybody knows Favreau is a hack. Include me out.”
Finke, you have quite the imagination.
Comment by Ben — April 15, 2008 @ 9:11 pm
leo, what in god’s name are you blabbing about? “The tracking released is based solely on awareness.” Um, no, it’s not. Awareness is only one component of tracking. Clearly, you have no idea what you’re talking about.
Comment by Can't Take it Anymore — April 15, 2008 @ 9:49 pm
I’m fascinated why these studio’s release all their franchise movies around the same time.
They could have released Iron Man in lets say march or april.
These months are usualy empty(when it comes to blockbusters)
May is stacked,with all of them eyeing on our freshly earned dollar$
Seems like bad business to me.
They are gonna feel it in their wallet somehow.
Comment by Socratores — April 15, 2008 @ 10:58 pm
Great comic book! Boring trailer… lame cast.
Now Harold and Kumar… there’s money well spent!
Comment by Darn Tootin' — April 15, 2008 @ 11:45 pm
I’m still upset they decided to turn the trailer into a full length feature:
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/wildly_popular_iron_man_trailer
Comment by Neil — April 16, 2008 @ 2:37 am
I’ll be surprised at less than $70 mil and would guess at total BO around 210-215. The marketing for the movie has been absolutely everywhere and it looks better than the average crap blockbuster. If anything’s going to underwhelm this summer it’ll be Indy… they’ve been downplaying the hype on it enough that half the people I know don’t even know it’s out in barely a month.
On the other hand, they ALL know about Iron Man.
Comment by Bartokomous — April 16, 2008 @ 8:59 am
How will right-wingers interpret the plot as being left-wing? If I remember correctly, the politics of Iron Man/Tony Stark were pretty conservative, so if anything this character will please conservatives/libertarians. I’m as far right as you can imagine without getting into extremism and I am psyched about this movie.
Comment by Joseph Kastner — April 16, 2008 @ 9:07 am
How many of you are under 40 LOL? There hasn’t been a decent action movie out forever, and people are eager to see something really cool. The various iron men in the trailer are badasssss, plus the choice of music in the marketing is perfect. Every time I see this trailer, the audience cheers.
Also, casting Robert Downey was a perfect choice. He’s not so cool or pretty-boyish to alienate the self-esteem-challenged, but he has enough of an attitude and a past to make people respect him.
The movie will be HUGE. Huuuuuuuuge. Hyuh-OOGE.
Comment by Tim — April 16, 2008 @ 9:28 am
You are all crazy! This movie will open HUGE! 90 - 100 million. The trailer is straight up bonafide!
count it Nikki!
Comment by matt — April 16, 2008 @ 10:29 am
It will do at least 40 million, of course if it’s a big weekend it may even do 50-60 million. But don’t rule out a 70 million dollar weekend. Let alone a 80 million dollar weekend. That said there is a rumor that it could pull in as much as 90-100 million. Anywhere between 40 and 100 million for sure. But if it falls outside that range that’s understandable in today’s ‘download krazy’ ‘iPod’ ‘Pogo Ball’ world.
Way to hedge your bets Nostradamus.
Comment by Ernie — April 16, 2008 @ 2:28 pm
Guys, this is going to be big. Seriously. We’re talking like, 450-500 mil opening weekend. EASY. I’ve been waiting for this movie for like, forever, so OBVIOUSLY it will dominate. Look out, “Titanic”!
Comment by #1 fan — April 16, 2008 @ 5:18 pm
I don’t agree. IRON Man is one of the most liked superheroes around. I see this being second only to Spider-Man. nd, some of those movies you mentioned were waaaaaay off the mark of making cool movies with the characters. I mean Ghostrider ()bad script and Nic Cage) and Hulk (which was garbage, a month after this movie is a new Hulk that acts like the other one never happened.) This will be huge.
Comment by scott — April 16, 2008 @ 9:41 pm
What’s so funny is judging the consumer by the director’s track record. Like someone buying a ticket is thinking — well, he directed Elf, but then again, he did Zathura? Basically, if it’s good, it’ll make a ton of money — if it’s bad, it’ll go the way of The Hulk(what was that? A 71% decrease in the second weekend) I think the trailer looks great and Downey looks great. Makes me want to see it. GTA be damned!
Comment by writefunny — April 17, 2008 @ 12:39 am
I don’t think you understand the effect GTA4 is going to be for the movie.
1. GTA4 is going to be available for both consoles world wide. That’s 28.7 million consoles world wide. Halo was only on one console.
2. Possible the most anticipated video game for two years. It was originally set to release Oct. 2007, then pushed all the way to April 29. A lot of fans have been craving this.
3. Though not much, but cut-scenes and descriptions have been released, as reported GTA 4 is close to being sold out in the U.K. and estimated to sell $400 million on release day. One day. Based on pre-orders alone.
4. Few to none new games will be released on that week due to… you know.
5. Who’s the target audience? You guessed it, but their at home. Price of gas, tickets, popcorn, etc vs $65 dollar game.
6. Through GTA’s history, the game will be addictive.
The only thing Iron Man can hope for is it being a really good movie. It will probably make more money on it’s second week than it’s release. The game industry makes more money than the movie business now a days.
Comment by Anthony — April 20, 2008 @ 12:39 am
Regardless of how well any video game sells, I don’t see it as much of a threat to a big movie release.
If the movie has people interested, they will take two or three hours off to leave the house.
30 million consoles worldwide? Sure, that’s a lot. But 300 million people live in the US. Even if everyone who owns a console stayed home, that still leaves 95% of the US free that weekend.
I could see a big video game hurting a movie only aimed at teens, and with weak buzz. If people were thinking about maybe going, I could see a huge game release putting a damper on that. But a movie people are interested in? No way, at least not to any measurable degree.
“It will probably make more money on it’s second week than it’s release.” Seriously?
Comment by milo — April 21, 2008 @ 11:42 am
If it stinks of the typical leftist Hollywood mindset, business will drop off quickly.
Transformers was pro-military and did well.
Jarhead and Lions for Lambs, while not action adventure films a lot of their advertising was totally opposite what the real nature of the films were around.
Once that word got out, people didn’t want to go see them.
One of the ,amy problems with Lee’s Hulk, was its leftist slant.
While these films will do ok overseas, where bashing America is loved, they don’t do a lot in bringing in Americans.
Comment by TiminPhx — April 23, 2008 @ 12:45 pm
My guess, it will open in the range of 65-70Million
It has excitement in his corner, being a new product and also the marketing efforts has been par-excellence.
Being new and no in-build fanbase, that ia as strong as Spidey, it won’t be able to open that huge and what’s more, it’s not a sequel.
Just hope it won’t bombed like Hulk. A complete waste. Should have titled it’ Brokeback Hulk’ instead:-)
Comment by Armand — April 23, 2008 @ 9:39 pm
So….how’d this prediction work out for you?
Comment by Jhonen — May 4, 2008 @ 5:25 pm
Oh Snap, 105 million opening weekend WOW who would have thought?
Comment by Evil Bastard — May 4, 2008 @ 5:50 pm
Looks like Leo “This pic is guarenteed to drop between 60 and 75. No way it does more or less. It wont top 200 million.” was wrong…… but a huge margin.
Comment by Jonathan — May 5, 2008 @ 8:25 am