The internet will inexorably break the control over distribution - anyone can set up an internet TV ’station’ or stream media and cash is not a problem with a good business plan. The one thing that the studios could retain ‘control’ of was relationships with talent. But it is precisely those relationships that they are presently destroying. Without the talent relationships to generate a stream of content the media business is wide open to anyone who can figure out how to monetize content in the internet world. And that need not be the studios. It could be, for example, google or microsoft.

The studios have already lost because if they pay us off now - they lose. If they let us strike for 6 months then give us a deal - they lose. But ironically the very worst scenario for them is that they grind us down over say 4-5 months and stick us with a lousy deal. This is the DVD scenario.

But this time, as the internet technology matures and people figure out how to put together a viable business model the talent will desert the media companies like rats leaving a sinking ship. All they will be left with is sports and huge overhead.

These companies are dinosaurs and they’re making all the wrong moves.

http://finance.google.com/

please read, become informed, then come back here and comment.

Big media will be able to hold out a lot longer than the writers, to think otherwise is delusional.

It is one thing to greenlight a $70m movie knowing it can be rewritten in preproduction to fix the problems that arise. It is quite another to greenlight a $70m movie knowing that the problems that are in the script are gonna stay there.

The last movie I worked on would have collapsed without a 2-week rewrite four weeks before principal photography. This is not by any means an uncommon scenario.

With all of the other problems going on in the economy right now, Wall Street isn’t going to like where this leads. The fiscal year ends Jan 31. Once the earnings reports for the 4th quarter get turned in, this thing is over. More likely, the AMPTP will start seriously negotiating long before then, as they know once the bad news hits Wall Street, the writers will be empowered to hold out for more. Therefore, it’s in the AMPTP’s best interest to end the strike before those earnings reports are released.

Last, let’s not forget the feature film angle. Due to the longer time necessary to make a feature, the studios have movies through next Christmas, it’s true. In theory, they won’t feel the pain of the strike like the TV side will. But they cannot let this strike go into summer, or let the actors join in. Next summer is their window to make their tentpoles for summer 09. BILLIONS of dollars are riding on those films. No matter how much they huff and puff (and bluff) these guys will NEVER miss their window to make those movies, including the last Harry Potter film.

So yes, the strike may last awhile, well into next year. But it will never go into June, and the actors will never go on strike. If the writers can hold out long enough, these companies will fold and give the writers EVERYTHING they’re asking for. And, perhaps most importantly, the AMPTP will never again take the WGA’s threat to strike so lightly. The AMPTP will finally recognize that writers do have some power, and as a result, they will be forced to actually negotiate in good faith, something they have not done in years.

STAND STRONG WRITERS! THIS IS YOUR MOMENT!

“For a writer to give up today’s money for a nonexistent piece of the future — they should do it in three years, shouldn’t be doing it now — they are misguided they should not have gone on the strike. I’ve seen stupid strikes, I’ve seen less stupid strikes, and this strike is just a stupid strike.”

This from the jerk-o*f that ran ABC into the ground.

Did we retire you, a**hole? Just relax in the pasture and chew you cud.

We need to shut down production. We need to strengthen the union. We need to out and humiliate hyphenate scabs.

Please send the AMPTP - Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers an e-mail by going to their web site:
http://www.amptp.org/contactus.html

Please ask all of your friends to send an e-mail and then ask their friends to send e-mails as well.

SAMPLE LETTER:
Producers, please return to the bargaining table. Many people who are not writers are being affected by this strike. Many live paycheck to paycheck and can’t afford for this strike to go on. The perception with most people is that the producers are just being greedy. After all, most of you do not live paycheck to paycheck. Your mansions will not go into foreclosure and your mercedes won’t get repossessed, if you miss a television season. The sad reality is that if this strike lingers everyone will loose. In a few weeks a lot of people will stop watching television all together because there will be no satisfaction in watching tired old reruns, not when you can find new and exciting entertainment via the internet. The advertisers will follow and go where the people are going. Then television will go the way of the dinosaur…

I think you’d be surprised at who the writers “cast” in their scripts. I’m not saying *all* writers are sensitive to diversity issues, but as a whole, we’re interested in telling all sorts of stories about a variety of people.

However what’s written and what gets shot are two totally different things. This is mostly due to producers and “creative” executives at studios who insist on rewriting or recasting a script to market it to their desired demographic.

The writers I know are on your side.