GTA IV: How Much Will It Hurt Box Office?

21 Comments »

1. Oh, they’re out there… You just won’t find many of them in LA. I know of many movie fanatics who get this excited, myself included, they’re just cultivated far away from the studios in Hollywood. I think fanatics for movies are slowly disappearing, but I know I’m doing the best to keep it alive! Part of it is embracing the the culture of the moviegoers - when was the last time a general manager at a movie theater actually participated in the festivities during a midnight opening of a movie and really allowed them to turn it into a special night?

   Just look at The Dark Knight’s viral marketing campaign or the San Diego Comic Con and you’ll find movie fans this excited, too!

   Comment by Alex (FirstShowing.net) — April 29, 2008 @ 2:34 am

2. @ Alex: I think fanatics for movies are disappearing cos the movie quality has gone downhill over the last couple of decades. Maybe it’s just me, friends and family, but I don’t know anyone these days who goes ga-ga for movies like they used to back in the 80s-90s. There’s just very little if anything to get fanatical about in cinema these days. Just a sign o’ the times I just put it down to people (read: execs) making bad choices on what to make and what people want to see.

   Comment by Michael Dobrofsky — April 29, 2008 @ 2:59 am

3. Michael, you don’t think movies like Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull or The Dark Knight look like movies to get fanatical about? I can mention at least a few more this summer that I know I’m getting fanatical about, but those are 2 that I would believe most people would be getting very excited for. While that could be a valid point for a majority of the year, not ALL movies are a part of that problem…

   Comment by Alex (FirstShowing.net) — April 29, 2008 @ 5:38 am

4. How much with GTA IV hurt box office? Not at all–or, at least, not any noticeable amount. Nikki, I know you’ve been pushing this notion for a few weeks now, but just stop, unless you have some actual facts or evidence to back it up.

   Comment by Can't Take it Anymore — April 29, 2008 @ 6:00 am

5. There’s just very little if anything to get fanatical about in cinema these days. Just a sign o’ the times I just put it down to people (read: execs) making bad choices on what to make and what people want to see.

   Uh . . . this is a matter of taste, my friend. First off, there were no bad choices in the 80’s? Police Academy, Top Gun to name two. I suppose if you believe Basic Instinct is a classic or Short Circuit changed lives, fine, but let’s not discount certain contemporary pieces: There Will Be Blood and Knocked Up, both of which have been a firecracker up the ass of the blockbuster movie of the 80’s.

   As for gamers: the difference between a movie goer and a gamer is that a movie goer only needs 2 hours or so of his/her life. Gamers are rarely working professionals: they’re kids or adults without careers.

   The real discussion, methinks, is not Hollywood losing to games but Hollywood’s unabashed crush on the teen market. If all the teens in the world suddenly vanished, studio marketing departments would sit around at work in an utter state of mourning and loss . . .while those of in our 30’s — Mr Dobrofsky, for instance – continue to feel very left out of it all.

   Comment by a thought — April 29, 2008 @ 9:30 am

6. It’s almost too depressing to talk about. Studios have to start taking chances again, writers [a majority] have to start learning how to write again, real producers (remember them??!) have to exist in Hollywood again, and marketing has to stop being so lazy.

   There are, of course, a few more aspects to this problem, but it seems to have all boiled down to these.

   Comment by Ella — April 29, 2008 @ 9:38 am

7. I pre-ordered it, and im picking it up at Best Buy later today (In LA). hehe can’t wait to play it on my 360.

   Comment by shark — April 29, 2008 @ 9:42 am

8. Anybody notice it’s R-rated? How do the studios think they are going to sell pg-13 action to teenagers? 300 anyone?

   Comment by tcw — April 29, 2008 @ 10:52 am

9. Movies since 2000 that have been greatly anticipated by large groups of people: The LOTR trilogy, the first Harry Potter, the second Pirates movie, Revenge of the Sith, Transformers, Indy 4…

   Notice a trend? All continuations of previously existing, popular franchises. (Same goes for GTA IV).

   It’s not hard to see the 80s as an idyllic time for movie love. That’s when the flippin’ franchises began: Back To The Future, The Terminator, Die Hard, Lethal Weapon, Raiders of the Lost Ark…

   If the execs were more interested in starting new franchises instead of remakes, medium ports, or movies based off of toys, then maybe large groups of non-fanboys could get psyched about watching something new.

   Comment by Alexander — April 29, 2008 @ 11:50 am

10. “There’s no shortage of talent in Hollywood. There’s only a shortage of talent that can recognize talent.” — Jerry Wald

    Comment by Santayana — April 29, 2008 @ 12:10 pm

11. Wrong about who won the box office $$$ last weekend but for the coming weekend it will be GTA IV!

    Lost Remote (www.lostremote.com) has a good take on this:

    “Why would you want to sit passively and watch a movie (or a TV show) when you can live a movie? Video games already generate more money than the movie industry, but games like GTA IV illustrate that the gaming business is just getting warmed up. Soon games will transition from interactive movies to virtual reality experiences. And the sky’s the limit…Current gaming technology offers the most powerful communications and storytelling platform ever seen. And the market is speaking, very loudly.”

    Ella’s right, if the suits in the studios do not take more chances in risks in a good story…Then, they will remain as relevant as radio.

    Comment by P. Lee — April 29, 2008 @ 12:50 pm

12. While GTA will be the biggest game of all time, I don’t think it will have a noticeable effect on box office, at least the weekend. Sure, movie attendance may be down tonight, or even the next couple weeknights.

    But Iron Man will open big - it’s got the buzz, and even serious gamers will take a couple hours off to go see it.

    Even if every person with a console bought the game and played it all weekend, that still leaves 95+% of the population to go see movies.

    Comment by milo — April 29, 2008 @ 1:07 pm

13. “Nikki, I know you’ve been pushing this notion for a few weeks now, but just stop, unless you have some actual facts or evidence to back it up.”

    Obviously “facts” will be hard to come by, and we’re dealing in speculation here. Of course, what kind of site are you at? However, the release of Halo 3 (which was not quite a release of the same magnitude as this, but close) was followed by a weekend box office down 27% from previous years. You have to remember not to get caught up thinking it’s a money issue - i.e. that kids will use their cash to get the game and therefore not be able to see a movie. Instead, the point is: plenty of kids will not bother going to the movies over the weekend when they’d rather be playing the new game they just got that they’ve been anticipating since before Iron Man was even in development.

    Will Iron Man suffer? I doubt it. But I’d say it IS a FACT that at least a portion of the potential audience will put it off to another weekend, at the very least…

    Comment by ckn8 — April 29, 2008 @ 1:51 pm

14. People lined up for the Star Wars and Harry Potters…. just wait until Indy comes out! The game may have some effect on the box office, but theres nothing major coming out anyways, so I doubt it would be big.

    and @ athought - That’s quite an assumption to make that all gamers are not working professionals. While not a big gamer myself, many of my friends are and they manage to remain a gamer while still maintaining a strong career. The biggest mistake Hollywood can make is to underestimate the audience for gaming.

    Comment by Joe — April 29, 2008 @ 1:58 pm

15. I’d say moviegoers are pretty excited for Iron Man, Indiana Jones, Dark Knight, etc. etc. etc. etc.

    Enough of this.

    Comment by WHO CARES — April 29, 2008 @ 2:55 pm

16. To a thought: You have a pretty good point and I was with you but for one small detail: your assertion that “Gamers are rarely working professionals: they’re kids or adults without careers.” As a thirty-something working professional who likes to refer to myself as a “gamer”, I take exception to your labeling.

    Now, are there young, aloof individuals out there going through marathon game sessions on their 360s and PS3s, playing until their eyes bleed? No doubt. But here’s a bulletin for you: there are a lot of young and aloof people who go to the movies as well. Now I play games, sure, I own a 360 and a PS3, and yes, I bought GTA IV. But I will also manage to get some quality game time in between the real-life and quite legitimate “missions” of paying bills, doing laundry, cleaning the house, eating, sleeping and all those other mundane tasks that would shock you as being on the litany of a gamer.

    Now I agree with you in that if you go on X-Box Live or PlayStation Network, you’ll find a lot of snotty kids and adults who are far more immature than their age. But you’ll also find a silent but bustling minority of grad students, parents and working class folk, of all ages, races and religions. All of whom I would bet do not fit your narrow classification of a “gamer”. They may not have a gamerscore of 20 gazillion or plan to play GTA for 40 hours straight until their half-drunk and bleary-eyed, carving every nook and cranny of the game. But that’s alright. And if there are people who want to do that, that’s fine too. Who knows? Maybe they might be smart enough to exploit their talent and hone other abilities and hopefully make a productive career for themselves.

    If you haven’t already seen it, might I recommend that you watch the superb documentary “The King Of Kong: A Fistful Of Quarters”? It’ll give you a great idea of that fine line between beating the game and playing the game. The best gamers know where the power button is.

    Comment by Gamer and Proud of It. — April 29, 2008 @ 3:55 pm

17. Just so you know, Alex is right when it comes to movies. But, for the purpose of this post, the box office is in major trouble. Most of that is due to GTA IV, but with gas prices sky high, people will be waiting for Indy IV as well too.

    Comment by Jessy S. — April 29, 2008 @ 5:37 pm

18. ckn8: Boxoffice was down in the first weekend in October of 2007 not because of Halo 3, but, again, because crappy movies were released, compared to 2006. That weekend in ‘07 saw the opening weekends of Heartbreak Kid, The Seeker: Dark is Rising, and Feel the Noise–not exactly movies that anyone cared about.

    In 2006, however, that same weekend saw the openings of The Departed, Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning (a terrible movie, but one with strong appeal among older teens), and Employee of the Month.

    Comment by Can't Take it Anymore — April 29, 2008 @ 6:42 pm

19. One thing to note, as said by the blond fellow in the second video ( a fellow Torontoian ) is these games are aimed at people like me - the 30+ crowd. Movies are aimed at teenagers, so on the whole, they’re pretty stupid. Indy, Iron Man and Dark Knight are for kids. Not adults. Most movies these days are comic books brought to the screen. it’s the Bud Yorkin-ization of the movies, as opposed to the Ridley Scott-ification of movies ( Ridley became a Bud, but Blade Runner… aaaaah…).

    Comment by Chris Cunnington — April 29, 2008 @ 8:19 pm

20. It’s silly to say that movies in the 80s were more anticipated, or that there hasn’t been anything big based on original ideas lately.

    Harry Potter, Shrek, POTC, anything from Pixar, the Matrix

    And if you look back, many of the hits from the 80s were based on existing franchises like Batman, Superman, etc.

    Sequels and movies based on existing franchises are nothing new. And the excitement and people lining up for openings has pretty much always been for sequels. Were people lining up in advance for the opening of Terminator, Back to the Future, or Raiders? I doubt it.

    Comment by milo — April 30, 2008 @ 8:25 am

21. The last time I remember anyone being this exited as the grand theft auto 4 gamers. Was in 1999 when “Star Wars: the phantom menace” came out. People were frezzing their buts off camping out in the movie theater.

    Comment by Arik — April 30, 2008 @ 1:56 pm

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