Tuesday was the day that the writers and the producers were supposed to start considering "new business" during their resumed contract negotiations. But, instead, they just kept focused on old business. Day #2 was supposed to be "when they really start advancing the ball forward" and "where the rubber can really meet the road," according to its advance billing. Instead, it was the same old same old.
Again, negotiators for the AMPTP presented that "very comprehensive proposal which laid out to all the entire roadmap to the deal" and, again, addressed every single issue. And, again, negotiators for the WGA listened and, again, kept getting up to caucus.
But where was the new stuff?
The reps for the studios and networks keep telling me about at least two improvements in their comprehensive proposal presented Monday compared to what was on the table back on Sunday November 4th when the talks broke off and the strike began. "But they also feel that the writers weren't paying attention and didn't absorb the proposal back then. So, basically, they presented back what they proposed on November 4th," an insider in that camp explains to me.
It took a couple of hours, I'm told, for the AMPTP to do this. "They went over the proposal point by point as though they were delivering a new proposal," a different source explained to me. "But it was the exact same proposal, though they restated their positions in a friendlier manner."
Yet I've been repeatedly told by people in a position to know that the networks and studios do have new stuff to present, and the writers still hope that will be done sooner rather than later. But it's truly baffling to me exactly why the AMPTP is slowing down the process when, if anything, it should be speeded up especially with Christmas looming. On the other hand, this is a favorite negotiating tactic of AMPTP president Nick Counter: to repeatedly offer little new until the guilds are forced to negotiate against themselves by continually reducing their demands. (Which is one reason why the writers now are toying with a provocative new tactic of raising their demands at every bargaining session.)
My question is: have the Hollywood moguls authorized Counter to delay? (Which, if so, will give fuel to the fire that the studios and networks just agreed to these talks purely for their PR value and are instead adhering to their individual timetables to declare force majeure. If the moguls think they're badly losing the PR war now, which they are, just wait until that happens.) Or has Counter talked them into this strategy because he thinks it'll work now just as it has in the past?
But that was then, and this is now. I'm hearing phrases like "jaw-dropping", "mind-boggling" and "you can gape at the chutzpah" to describe Tuesday's session. But I also hear the writers are determined not to feel frustrated or angry. "You've got to admire the kabuki of it," a source told me. "You can look at this as some really sophisticated and interesting negotiating tactic, or as stonewalling. But it's also paralysis. It's one thing to go back but another to not move at all."
Still, an insider is convinced that what happened at Tuesday's session "is like two cars just sitting there getting ready for a game of chicken. Neither one wants to go first. Both sides will get past this. I don't know when, but they will."
I understand the writers will spend this AM caucusing to figure out their next move.
Look, I'm going to wait until I receive a report about Wednesday's talks before I begin passing judgment on what's happening, or not happening, here. But I must say that Day #2 certainly puts a damper on all those wishful-thinking rumors sweeping Hollywood and beyond -- but not here at DHD -- that the strike would be settled by December 8th.
You mean things are not moving forward in the negotiations? What a shock…not.
Comment by Jamie — November 28, 2007 @ 5:01 am
Dear Studios, Networks and “Producers,”
You’re looking really bad in everyone’s eyes. You miscalculated. Yes, the WGA jumped on the strike without giving you a few days to finally make what you claim is a better offer. Okay. We get it. Now’s the time to be good businesswomen & businessmen, recognize the reality of this growing, financial mess and make a deal in time for the holidays. Otherwise, your image will only get worse.
Comment by Reality — November 28, 2007 @ 6:43 am
If they come back with some lame calculated “1st Phase” lowball offer like 1.25% on HV as part of the “process”, with the “second phase” lowball offer of 1.75% in place Not to be offered until March and a third, and a forth, all as part of a calculated plan to hope we cave on a weak deal, I say we walk.
We walk until we cost them three times more money than they would have lost if they bargained fairly in the first place.
We have to let these dicks know that we can play hardball, it’s the ONLY tactic they recognize and respect. We have to make it abundantly clear that we are no longer to be fucked with. Because in three years, we could be at this again and they should know, right now, there will be severe consequences for continuing to treat us this way.
It’s about fairness and respect. I still don’t see any.
Comment by PJ - Writer — November 28, 2007 @ 7:09 am
Delays…delays…delays.
It’s almost as if they are waiting for their force majeure clauses to kick in after 6 weeks (2 more weeks)…oh wait!
Comment by agentatanotheragency — November 28, 2007 @ 7:09 am
Thanks for keeping us updated! Eventhough much hasn’t improved, it’s still good to know what is going on — thank you!
Comment by Phoenix — November 28, 2007 @ 7:10 am
I think the stalling tactics have nothing to do with the current “negotiation” and everything to do with Force Majure. They are going to push the final deal a bit so they can dump more contracts. Once the contracts they want gone are officially released, then they will get the go ahead from their collective bosses to make the deal.
Comment by Shawn — November 28, 2007 @ 7:15 am
The difference between an optimist and a pessimist is that the optimist is wrong.
Love ya just the same, Nikki.
(And could you please get your web person to fix the yellow text in the name/email/website text fields? It’s just an RGB value in the CSS file. Thanks!)
Comment by Max Bell — November 28, 2007 @ 7:18 am
Among other reasons, the studios are delaying because the force majeure clause on many of the deals they want to eliminate don’t kick in until mid December. They won’t get serious until after that.
Comment by striking showrunner — November 28, 2007 @ 7:24 am
I think the WGA should start marching in front of those stores again and remind people about what is important to “Big Media”
Also they need to show presence again, like they did with Alicia Keyes.
Act like there is no contract and the AMPTP is stalling.
Comment by Jeanette C. — November 28, 2007 @ 7:33 am
The producers aren’t desperate enough yet- they know December/January are pretty much dead times anyway, and they have enough material stockpiled or reality shows planned to get thru the rest of the season (Big Brother 9 going 9 months, anyone? And Fox can just run American Idol 6 days a week, since COPS and AMW can run Saturdays).
You figure if they don’t get anything settled by Dec 15th, the rest of the year is shot anyway with holiday plans…and after that the producers might be willing to talk a little since the law of diminishing returns will take hold (the benefits of the force majeure clauses they invoke plus the savings they get by not filming shows will be less than the amount of lost advertising revenue and likely lower ratings they get). But by then, the 07-08 season is likely too far gone to be saved.
Comment by DW — November 28, 2007 @ 7:37 am
I really think it’s time to rattle the AMPTP’s cages. They ARE just dicking us around.
It’s time for another visit to Washington with the implied threat that pro WGA senators might start sub-committee hearings - and the implied threat of forcing the studios to reveal their profit/loss data.
This is clearly zooming toward force majure, which is really just union-busting.
Enough with their horseshit.
Oh, and the WGA should increase their demands by 5% per day.
Someone has to grow a pair here….
Comment by anotherWGAmember — November 28, 2007 @ 7:40 am
I too think we should get someone like Alicia Keyes again. Actually, Alicia Keyes herself again would be perfect (as I was out of town the first time.) Keep the gorgeous ladies coming!
Comment by Lisa B — November 28, 2007 @ 7:43 am
QUESTION: On some level, all of these CEOs need to report to their shareholders. They cannot be so naive as to believe that they’ll get away without a new media deal…so they’ll have to justify why they messed around for a while before committing. Does ANYONE really believe that these “force majeure” deals are going to off-set the losses that they’ll face simply by dragging their heels another couple weeks???
I’m sure there is a method to the madness, but I wish someone would help me understand. Because all I see is that a 3 yr, $200mill new media deal proposed by the WGA, divided by the 6 conglomerates — really only costs each company $10-13mill/year. Maybe they can save that much in force majeuring contracts, but realistically, they still are going to lose money from all of the shut down shows, loss in ad revenue, etc.
CAN SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN THE PHILOSOPHY?
(And btw, I just don’t buy the argument that they’re trying to bust the WGA, b/c even if they dragged the writers out until June — fresh-legged SAG is going to give them a run for their money).
Comment by QUESTION, QUESTION — November 28, 2007 @ 7:43 am
Yeah, how about some rallies and fun parties with dancing and music and free food. The people that are out of work with the holidays approaching really love that crap. Force majeure, welcome to the sharp end of the stick.
Comment by Fed Up — November 28, 2007 @ 7:52 am
Actually, Max Bell, the difference between an optimist and a pessimist is that it’s a lot harder to support the pessimist. No hope for the hopeless, as it were. As anotherWGAmember says, someone needs to grow some balls. (But I don’t think going crazy with demands is they way to do it. Fastest way to lost that public support.) Come on, already, play hardball. Making the first move doesn’t have to make you weak, it can be used to show your strength. It’s not too late to save the jobs of assitants and it’s not too late to save this TV season. But the AMPTP has proven it’s a load of dicks, so to get them off their asses, we have to get off ours.
Comment by Caitlin — November 28, 2007 @ 7:54 am
Your “insider” should be removed from the room. There is an agreement in place for a complete news blackout and your sources, if reliable, are in breach of that agreement. Is that anyway to conduct a good faith negotiation? This is a process and we would all be well advised to let it play out.
Tom
Comment by Tom — November 28, 2007 @ 8:00 am
Force Majure.
they’re just stalling till they can clean house.
Comment by unemployed — November 28, 2007 @ 8:02 am
Maybe you are being used Nikki. People know you are so hot to scoop everyone and have the ear of the people in the industry that your blog is a tool. We all read and like your stuff…but you are not Page Six…are you? There are people really hanging onto every word and your threads are really sensationalistic. Be a gossip columnist who specializes in the industry or be a journalist…which are you?
Comment by realworldperson — November 28, 2007 @ 8:04 am
“If they come back with some lame calculated “1st Phase” lowball offer like 1.25% on HV as part of the “process”, with the “second phase” lowball offer of 1.75% in place Not to be offered until March and a third, and a forth, all as part of a calculated plan to hope we cave on a weak deal, I say we walk.”
Delicious. If you think that 1.25 is “lowball,” we’re going to be out for a year.
1.25 would be a crushing victory. Let’s hope Patric hasn’t hopped everyone up so much that he recognizes it.
Comment by Colin — November 28, 2007 @ 8:05 am
Where is Michael Moore in all this?
“Can I talk to Nick Counter? I just want to talk to him…”
Comment by Sammy Glick — November 28, 2007 @ 8:06 am
LOL!! I called this two weeks ago!! I said they are going to work the Force Majeure but they have to make it appear as if they are trying to negotiate in order for that to stick in the face of law suits from writers. This was all VERY obvious to everyone but the naive writers who seem to think we’re living in a fairytale where corporations give a damn about you or your feelings (”it’s all about respect and fairness - bwaaaah!” LoL). You’re strategies suck. The fact that WGA leadership is scratching their heads in this negotiation trying to figure out what’s going on is proof of that.
Comment by ChuckT — November 28, 2007 @ 8:13 am
I’m with the “grow a pair” guy. It’s frustrating and scary not knowing what’s going on in the neg meeting. I hope that we aren’t diluting our position so much that we end up with a Pyrrhic victory. The offer we *started* with was fair and reasonable and I’d hate to see our leadership move too far away from it.
Stand your ground.
Oh and what’s this grumbling I’m reading about people enjoying their time on the picket line? Is there something wrong with making the best of it and socializing? This isn’t a funeral — the strike is an act of strength and solidarity; things that are a long time coming for our guild — that’s something to celebrate.
Comment by LKB — November 28, 2007 @ 8:16 am
Of course things aren’t going to just get tied up. It’s just like the comment from DW. The shareholders aren’t going to get all bent out of shape right away, because the expect an eventual resolution and they will regain the value of their stock. Just because viewers miss their favorite shows, doesn’t mean they won’t spend 8 months watching alternative programming. I think the people who keep saying the “Producers” need to back down to save their own interests really don’t understand this business and have never been in a room with a network or studio head. These are the same people that will spend MILLIONS of dollars on a 12 episode order and flush it after 2 airings if it doesn’t get the desired ratings. There is also a certain amount of satisfaction in watching the writers squirm. Remember, they have relatviely contentious relationships with many showrunners, whether it is about notes or demands on the budget or just dealing with prima donna attitudes about extravagant lunches and free wardrobe. Who out there that was not on a top 10 CBS show ever got a Chrisrtmas gift from Les Moonves that didn’t have the CBS logo on it? None, including the cast. He believes that writers are more than fairly compensated. he believes the same of actors. He only rewards success. He is a traditional capitalist. The writers do deserve a better deal, but they will definitely have to wait for it. And the Studios and Networks ARE saving money. They have all their numbers crunched. They know exactly when they will have to concede, if the writers can last that long. And remember, when the actors strike, they will still have a fiancial cushion from the work they are doing now, and June is a good time for the Producers to let things go on a little longer. The 2008 season may start late, but as soon as things are settled, a pilot can be turned around pretty quickly. They already have an idea of which pilots they are likely to greenlight based on scripts already in hand. And returning shows will be delayed, and everyone will have to work their asses off trying to catch up. Do the producers really care about that? I mean care enough to pay out? When the features start running dry, that is when they will have to consider settling. How many writers can survive until then?
Comment by Felicia — November 28, 2007 @ 8:26 am
Trust me when I tell you: FORCE MAJEURE, although beneficial, is not worth the potential long term side effects of this strike.
A handful of two million dollar writer/producer deals is pennies to these guys.
Don’t get me wrong, they’ll clean house if the opportunity arises. But they sure as hell ain’t going to delay these negotiations to do so. That would be plain stupidity.
It’s all about cost/reward. Two more weeks could tank, arguably, 200 million dollars. So is it worth 200 mil to these guys to chop an amount of money that probably is less than that.
It’s not like their pulling force majeure on production budgets.
Pennies people. Pennies.
Comment by No Nikki — November 28, 2007 @ 8:42 am
I agree with LKB. There’s nothing wrong with making the best of it on the picket lines. After all, it’s the holiday season, isn’t it? Might as well have as good a time as possible.
Oh…and as far as the negotiations? I’m with everyone else — the WGA needs to start RAISING their demands with every day that the AMPTP drags this out and forces everyone in town out of work. DVD’s need to be BACK ON THE TABLE now….and percentages of everything need to tick UPWARD with each passing day. I’m thinking a 1/20th of a percent a day — which would result in a half-percent raise every 10 days that the AMPTP drags their feet.
Everyone I talk with feels the same way.
Comment by David — November 28, 2007 @ 8:53 am
1) Force majeure. The strike will make/save them money. Let’s hope it’s the beginning of the end of pod deals!
2) Why pay people over the holidays? Settle right before, so the writers are forced to write over the holidays (pilots, show scripts, etc.), and then don’t start paying crews and actors until the new year.
3) The money saved will probably be close to what they end up giving us, so, psychologically, they can feel it’s a win. They didn’t spend any extra money.
Comment by Klaatu — November 28, 2007 @ 8:54 am
See, that’s what I said yesterday -
an extended champgne brunch after a leisurely round of golf in the morning - at which point
NOTHING HAPPENED in the meeting.
Comment by Krinkle — November 28, 2007 @ 8:59 am
I regrettably must agree with ChuckT. He treads heavily, but speaks with truth.
The writers are “playing” strike. They are striking in the same way that they would WRITE a strike. In the movie STRIKE, the noble writers win, the people rise up to support them and the studio heads are clumsy fools who cave when a crowd of fans surround the studio and sing “Kum Ba Yah.”
In reality, the studio realizes that in time - and not very long from now - the writers will get sick of playing strike and not understand why they’re not back at work. Also, the fans, who right now are enjoying seeing their favorite writers as heroes and martyrs, will turn against them when there is nothing on TV and their favorite movies are delayed or bollocked up.
Comment by Jamie — November 28, 2007 @ 9:11 am
A love the idea of “force majeure.”
As if they won’t immediately turn around and set up a bunch of new shitty deals. They are studios, after all. Nobody wastes more money.
Comment by DA in LA — November 28, 2007 @ 9:16 am
Felicia, you’re gold for explaining the REALITY of the situation. This isn’t 1955. Corporations haven’t weakened. They’ve combined forces, devoured the smaller companies and can now pretty much withstand anything for at least six months. Producers/Studio people HATE writers and their sense of entitlement. Far as they’re concerned it’s worth it to hold off on a deal to clean house AND make the bitches/WGA squirm.
Comment by ChuckT — November 28, 2007 @ 9:19 am
Again, the numbers behind all this.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jonathan-handel/reflections-on-residuals_b_73908.html
Bottom Line: If we split all our proposals down the middle it would come out to 60 Mil/Studio.
This is chump change.
Comment by PJ - Writer — November 28, 2007 @ 9:20 am
While the “force majeure” theories are appealing on both surface and emotional levels, the real AMPTP timetable most likely relates to the 2008 upfronts. I believe the studios want to settle this by Christmas, in order to have a reasonable pilot season leading to the $9 billion they will bank from advertisers. The monies saved by cancelling individual deals pursuant to force majeure pales in comparison to this advertising coin.
They are undoubtedly playing “wait and see” with the WGA now. Things will not get serious until about December 15, IMHO. Until then, the WGA needs to hold tight at the table. At this point, the picketing is basically irrelevant to the negotiations. The studios realize the writers are serious; they will not move off their current positions until the strike threatens pilot season.
Comment by astute analysis — November 28, 2007 @ 9:23 am
I truly believe that the force majeur gains cannot be worth the losses.
You all should stop worrying about what show biz is saying and start listening to what Wall Street is saying. Wall Street says that the strike must end, or the business will be permanently damaged. They see this strike as evidence of bad management in an industry that has basically enjoyed a monopoly on distribution for too long.
The piece in the LA Times entitled “Come On Writers, Script Your Future” is the sort of thing the private capital community is paying attention to. Soon the writer-entrepreneur will be among the most powerful entities in the new Hollywood. Wall Street, and the big money funds, are paying attention.
When all distribution is able to be done digitally (including theatrical exibition) the current media conglomerates are in real danger of being overtaken by new entities who share profit with talent (ALL talent, not just stars), are committed to more open, honest bookeeping, and who leave the creative jobs to the creatives, thus eliminating the expensive layers of the executive ranks.
It’s already happening with companies like Ryan Cavanaugh’s “Relativity Media” which is, essentially, a movie bank.
Read the LA Times article and see the future. Both sides are best served by making a reasonable deal…and soon.
As a side note, the Teamsters will not take kindly to a strike that goes through Christmas, or even comes close to it.
But it won’t matter for long, because before long there will be many new players in both production and distribution.
The old media dinasaurs have one more chance to avoid the meteor that is heading their way, and the first step is to settle this strike and rekindle their relationships with the creative community, for we are, in this business, the means of production.
If they don’t, they will watch as the meteor hits and destroys their little Jurassic Park. The meteor is private capital and digital distribution.
Watch out, companies.
Comment by WGA Writer with Business Sense — November 28, 2007 @ 9:32 am
I have a naive question. Do writers HAVE to picket or is it voluntary?
Comment by Janet — November 28, 2007 @ 9:33 am
I’m with anotherWGAmember here. Let’s go back to Washington. The studios have been telling us that they don’t make any money for so long that everybody just shrugs and accepts it. Net points are a joke, nobody expects to see them. Why have we put up with that for so long? This creative accounting that makes every movie look like a failure was illegal back in the day when these were privately owned companies and it’s in violation of Federal laws now that they’re all publicly traded.
I say if they don’t step up to the plate this time, we explore legal means to force them to open up their books. That’ll end this in a hurry.
Comment by DLJ — November 28, 2007 @ 9:40 am
I for one welcome our new AMPTP overlords.
Comment by Kent Brockman — November 28, 2007 @ 9:44 am
Gotta go with the consensus - it’s a ploy by the AMPTP to stall for force majeure (not only to cancel overalls, but also allows them to reduce episodic guarantees and holding deals for actors in the current season - definitely worth the money).
I know that if I still had my studio gig, I would definitely be advising this exact scenario.
Don’t know how you are getting the info, Nikki, but thank you and keep it going!
Comment by wackiland — November 28, 2007 @ 9:53 am
Nikki is right on for reporting negotiation updates.
A vacuum atmosphere is a bully tactic by the AMPTP because a black out facilitates their shenanigans and bad faith negotiations. The AMPTP is losing the PR war and a blackout benefits them - while the WGA loses a key strategic leverage.
This is not gossip reporting - this is a business blog. If you are offended, go elsewhere. Folks like “Tom” are clearly trolls for AMPTP upset that news of the same baloney tactics by AMPTP is getting out.
Keep reporting, Nikki.
Comment by fromtheinside — November 28, 2007 @ 9:55 am
No matter how strong public opinion is in favor of the WGA and our strike, the AMPTP still has the upper hand and it consistently feels like they are at least two steps ahead of our negotiating team. From this post and all the comments above, I get the feeling that we need much stronger negotiators on our side… Isn’t there someone out there who can out-manipulate and out-maneuver them or at least match their skills?
Comment by dante writer — November 28, 2007 @ 9:56 am
Felicia is one of the few posters that seems to know what the hell she is talking about. That’s not pessimism, that’s realism; a healthy dose of which the many blowhards posting on this site should take.
Writer’s, if you want to change the reality of your situation you need to stop whoring yourselves out, own your work and share the financial risk that is involved in turning your words into film and tv. In the face of status quo, Capital tends to reward the entrepenuer. Entrepenuers are creative. Writers are supposed to be creative….
Comment by jack — November 28, 2007 @ 10:22 am
Why can’t everybody just be honest? For the most part, writers have always hated the studios and the networks. They give lame notes, they interfere in the creative process. Most CE’s don’t make nearly as much money and yet they still control us. Writers hate most actors on their own shows. They are demanding, also give lame notes and get more difficult every year a show reamins on the air. However, they are still our bread and butter. All the actors you mocked in the room are now your heroes for stopping by the picket lines. The networks’ and studios’ behavior is shocking to you, yet you’ve held them in contempt for years. And, big surprise, the networks and studios hate most of you. They consider you egocentric, difficult and greedy. Everyone spends so much time pretending that they don’t hate each other all the time and yet act all surprised when another party doesn’t act fairly. How many times have you heard yourselves say the actors should just shut up and say their lines and stop haggling for more money and delaying production when they already make more than they deserve? Yes, writers deserve more compensation for DVDs and New Media, but we should have a little introspection too, and just admit that we are greedy just like everybody else.
Comment by Jim — November 28, 2007 @ 10:22 am
I think they need to get this settled before I run into financial ruin. Not working is hard on the bank account, especially when it’s for a big pissing contest between two groups of people. All the “outsiders” who post comments like this is some sort of football game, or boxing match - GET A LIFE. I will not be able to pay rent soon, and thank god I don’t have kids. I don’t care about your stupid points, stop ruining the already fragile economy! Why is no one taking it seriously that I get nothing out of this except for an empty bank account. I understand you want a piece of the pie, but do you have to ruin the whole pie to get it?
Comment by A_Smithee — November 28, 2007 @ 10:29 am
1.25 is a lowball offer?
Hilarious.
Comment by Chris — November 28, 2007 @ 10:32 am
Re: Glick’s Michael Moore question - a WGA member did a very funny spoof of Roger & Me called Nick & Me where he was trying to track down Nick Counter for a “few questions”.
Comment by skoonix — November 28, 2007 @ 10:35 am
Well, at least they’re talking… hopefully that won’t be the best thing we can say a couple weeks from now.
And Nikki, where on earth do you dig up your choice of clip art? It alternates from pitch-perfect to just… utterly random. You do realize cars face each other in a game of Chicken, and it’s not a race, as your picture suggests right? Haha, keep up the good work!
Comment by Tony — November 28, 2007 @ 10:41 am
I had tickets for the Daily show for December 11.
Comment by Dan — November 28, 2007 @ 10:49 am
This talk of fun striking and “lets show them how big our balls are” disgusts me. Writers act like it’s just them vs. the studios. For every writer on strike, there are 10-30 below the line show employees or vendor employees that are being put out of work. I am a below the line employee soon to be unemployed. We are the collateral damage of the strike. We have no vote on the strike and we gain nothing when there finally is a resolution — other than being able to look for a job in the industry we are trained for. Don’t tell me about how IATSE’s health fund is based on residuals - no gains from this round of negotiations will ever make up for the lost wages already incurred. And it’s not just the 50,000 IATSE members, it’s hundreds of thousands of post facility employees, rental company employees, etc etc. You are not fighting for the little guy. You’ve put the little guy out of a job. Right now, the media only hears from the writers or their SAG supporters. If this isn’t settled soon, they will hear from us — and there are a lot more of us than there are of you. All we want is to be able to work to support our families. Please negotiate with us in mind. Happy Holidays.
Comment by SoontobeUneomployed — November 28, 2007 @ 10:53 am
“Just because viewers miss their favorite shows, doesn’t mean they won’t spend 8 months watching alternative programming.”
Let’s look at this part of the situation, I don’t think you quite get it.
With reruns and filler, there’s no question that ratings will be down to some degree. Who knows how much, but nobody in their right mind thinks that ratings will stay consistent without new scripted programming. On the flipside, I don’t think anyone thinks that everyone would completely bail on watching TV regardless of what is on - some people will watch anything, so there will still be someone watching.
But the big issue for the studios is that they promised a certain size (and demographic) audience to their advertisers. If they don’t deliver what they promised, they have to make that up to their advertisers.
If they only miss by a little, they can just make good by giving out extra ads. They’re doing this already since generally ratings have been worse than last year overall. But if ratings get low enough, the advertisers will start demanding their money back.
And with little new programming, ratings seem likely to get even lower. Sure, the big corporations are big, diversified, and have deep pockets. But are shareholders going to be OK with it if the networks start having to give CASH refunds to advertisers?
The studios save some money by not paying talent and by using force majeur to kill contracts they don’t want. Absolutely. But the real question that people overlook is whether that money saved is more than the money lost by giving up ad income because of lower ratings. Is it?
It’s like if McDonalds employees went on strike and all the restaurants shut down…would it really make sense that the company would be just fine because it meant they were saving money on paying wages? Cutting expenses helps the company…but enough to offset a loss in income?
Comment by mike — November 28, 2007 @ 11:01 am
As agentatanotheragency and Shawn said, I think this has everything to do with the threat of force majeure. If one is expecting rationality from the studios…hello? These are the people from whom you (I’m not a writer, not industry related, just a curious third party) have gotten crapped on and overlooked for a long time. The public is so far behind the WGA at this time that it would really be a good time for the WGA to start pulling out some stops and embarassing and shaming the stuiods. They are like Britney Spears-no one can tell them the truth; the only card they have is the force majeure card. They don’t have public support or the facts.
Comment by TC — November 28, 2007 @ 11:06 am
I guess they weren’t “12 hours away from a deal” when the talks collapsed after all, but they have created a great new road trip song for the holidays:
“On the first day of new talks, the AMPTP gave to me… nothing.
On the second day of new talks, the AMPTP gave to me…
nothing…”
(continue ad nauseum)
Comment by Kevin Jones — November 28, 2007 @ 11:37 am
I like the idea of quietly, politely raising demands at each session if there is no movement from the other side.
We should be like water carving a course through a canyon: no conflict, just a steady, resolute flow of our will over and around the boulders.
Comment by Alexander Chow-Stuart — November 28, 2007 @ 11:49 am
Jamie is partially right. However, force majeure will not work in the AMPTP’s favor. They are losing almost everything right now, and force majeure will just make things worse for them. I know that if the WGA believes that the AMPTP is stalling, and they are, this dispute will spill into the federal court system. If you think that the shareholders are happy now, wait until the lawsuits start flying. Besides, any federal judge that has at least a 10% brain, will be smart enough to realize that the AMPTP is losing and will decide a deal that would mean that the WGA wins everything. I am sure that the shareholders would love a deal that requires the AMPTP to pay back residues dating from 1984-2007 for the new DVD standard at 60 cents. The AMPTP is negotiating in bad faith right now and they know it. I just hope that they can agree to a deal right now so that they don’t have to stomach the misery that is coming down the pipeline.
Comment by Jessy S. — November 28, 2007 @ 11:50 am
Hey I am as gloom and doom as the next guy… BUT… it is POSSIBLE… just POSSIBLE… that with all of the frustration and grandstanding and anger on BOTH sides at the last meeting before the strike, people might not have been listening. And now, to avoid any confusion, the Alliance is simply making sure their proposal gets the proper consideration before it is dismissed. Probably not - but it IS possible.
Comment by SOmething Wicked — November 28, 2007 @ 12:03 pm
I just want to agree with fromtheinside that all of you people tremulous and nail-biting over nikki reporting “inside” information are forgetting that keeping the rank and file of a union in the dark about the details and complexities of a negotiation is a great way to divide the union.
it’s a lot easier for rank-and-file to get tired of eating beans and rice and having a “small christmas” when they have no idea what’s going on…
…this flow of information gives the wga more power than it could possibly take away from a negotiation.
Comment by robd — November 28, 2007 @ 12:06 pm
WGA chief negotiator John Bowman predicted the strike could be settled by Christmas. Unfortunately he didn’t say what year!
Comment by What ever happened to they worked out a deal through back channels? — November 28, 2007 @ 12:17 pm
In response to the name calling “fromtheinside”, news blackouts are very common in union negotiations because as we have all witnessed you don’t get anywhere but unemployed by negotiating in the press. There is an agreement in place to honor the blackout. Any breach of that agreement would only serve to undermine the conversations and lead to an escalation of same old tired rhetoric from both sides. I don’t blame Nikki for reporting it but her source is not helping anybody.
“Tom”
Comment by Tom — November 28, 2007 @ 12:31 pm
Hi, it’s the voice of sanity here to soothe all the Debbie Downers (and shills) with their force majeure talk. Read and be calmed.
1) All of the overall writer deals combined amount to maybe 70 - 80 million dollars (per annum).
2) They will never terminate the big ones which is the majority of the money. Do you really think JJ Abrams and his giant deal will be told to take a hike? They WANT to be in business with him and his ilk so when the strike is over THEY CAN MAKE MONEY WITH HIM.
3) That leaves maybe 20 - 30 million in term deals they would willingly terminate.
4) The congloms that own networks currently face a year without pilots if a deal is not struck. Which means a year without upfronts. That means the probability that the business model on which the big 4 networks is built will collapse to a substantially reduced role.
5) This is a multi-billion dollar shortfall, per annum, extending into forever. This is a mega-shift of ad dollars to the web. This reduces NBC, ABC, CBS, and Fox to the ad dollar attracting level of major cable networks.
They are not waiting for force majeure. That’s not to say that they don’t want to use it (selectively) as a purely punitive measure, but financially it is immaterial. They are just waiting as long as they can to screw the WGA as hard as they can BEFORE THEY FINALLY MAKE THE DEAL. They need it much more than the WGA does, and they need it sooner.
Comment by Sanity — November 28, 2007 @ 12:40 pm
I knew this was all a PR tactic and nothing would come of it until SAG and DGA get in on the action. But of course those moronic “writers” on Done Deal tried to run me off that site over the weekend for daring to say that the strike wasn’t going to be over in a matter of days. How do you feel now, Shari? In regard to Nikki, thanks as always for revealing the truth of the matter. So many have their heads in the sand these days.
Comment by MOH — November 28, 2007 @ 12:53 pm
Now that they are talking, how many showrunners are back finishing up their work. “Isn’t there someone out there who can out-manipulate and out-maneuver them or at least match their skills?” NO…It would be the lawyers or Agents, both of which, even if they rep the talent depend on the buyers. They are also fragmented in who they represent. There is no Wasserman or Ovitz anymore. People here are freaking out that a person like Carson Daly went back to work, meanwhile how many $20 million actors are working on movies right now? Getting things in the can so they get paid if SAG or the DGA strike. To break the AMPTP all the guilds should be doing this at the same time. If NO stars signed on to a start date until all guilds cleared this up THEN maybe there would be movement. GE alone does around $165 billion a year in revenue, only 10% (I believe) of which is from NBC, and that is not going to go to zero. Political ads and sports, plus other ad buys will keep it going while the WGA gets squeezed. The WGA is not going to hold out to get what they want, they need to find out the most they will ever get and close the deal…thats where the reps who know the “moguls” can help- Find where in the deal you can close it at, and then bite down.
Comment by realworldperson — November 28, 2007 @ 1:07 pm
If the AMPTP stalls the negotiations for the purpose of instituting force majeure, it would be pretty transparent and I would suppose that legal action can be taken by those whose contracts have been terminated.
Comment by chardkerm — November 28, 2007 @ 1:23 pm
I agree with those who say writers must up the ante. Instead of lame gestures like sending CEO’s golf pencils, send BIC pens. After six months, escalate to a Montblanc or Dunhill Sentryman.
Comment by that wul show them — November 28, 2007 @ 1:36 pm
Perhaps, (as been suggested by others) all the companies out there who have bought and paid for advertising on television etc., should request their money back. Mr. Counter, may believe he is the end all to be all–but in the public’s eye he is showing himself as the arrogant tool that he is. (And that is insulting tools everywhere)
Comment by Pat — November 28, 2007 @ 1:56 pm
Look, I know that a girl/ guy’s gotta fight for their rights. But OMG, can you solve this problem already?
I wanna be able to watch my favourite american tv shows like Heroes, Prison Break and last but definitely not least, Supernatural - and i dont want to keep worrying about the future of the shows - Please, have some compassion in your hearts and join forces - come to a compromise!
Because everyone; the AMTPT, the WGA, the viewers, and most importantly,the actors/ actresses will suffer too - well, the viewers will just be EXTREMELY disappointed, but you have to think about others too. Learn to get over these problems and move on. I’msure I’m speaking forothers here too; Please DONT make this strike the longest one yet to come.
luv ushani xoxox
Comment by Ushani — November 28, 2007 @ 2:18 pm
This may be a silly question, but why do reports always say that the WGA repeatedly ‘got up to caucus’? Is there some rule that makes AMPTP the ‘home’ team, so they get to stay seated, or is there a separate room with other facilities the WGA needs in order to caucus? I know it isn’t huge in the scheme of things, I’m just curious.
–Interested TV Fan
Comment by Sara — November 28, 2007 @ 2:35 pm
Let’s get the show on the road people. Those of us who aren’t writers or producers are getting hungry.
Comment by sick and tired — November 28, 2007 @ 3:07 pm
Isn’t the idea of raising our demands until they give in from cartoons and bad sitcoms? If we’re going to use Bugs Bunny negotiating tactics, let’s just say “Yes, yes, yes, yes” while they say “no, no, no, no,” then we slip in a “no” and they say “yes” and we GOT EM!
Comment by Brad C, writer, trombone player — November 28, 2007 @ 3:44 pm
We have to let these dicks know that we can play hardball…
It’s about fairness and respect. I still don’t see any.
I don’t see any either.
Comment by Average consumer — November 28, 2007 @ 5:03 pm
Jack@10:22 am who calls writers blowhards - you actually come across as a curiously hostile blowhard, and your comments do not express anything original that hasn’t already been said over and over and over.
It is true that the future of writers is entrepreneurial.
However, it is a perpetuated fallacy that writers do not currently share studio financial risk.
If you understood anything about the financial structure of writer deals, you would know that residuals ARE a means of participating in and shouldering financial risk.
Residuals are deferred payment. Writers take less payment upfront, in hopes that it will be compensated on the back end via residuals.
This is risk participation. If residuals were abolished, that money would get built into the upfront payment, and writers (and actors, etc) would be paid more up front.
Residuals are a way for studios to shell out less upfront money, everyone shoulders some risk, and everyone (theoretically) profits from success.
However, the studios act in bad faith with fanciful accounting and lowball negotiations, trying to cut artists out of the residual portion of their paycheck.
The public might think writers are fighting for surplus money, but what they are fighting for is the portion of their paycheck that was taken out up front and saved for later.
Comment by showrunner — November 28, 2007 @ 5:35 pm
I wish we had the numbers for what the ad revenue losses for the FEBRUARY SWEEPS would be compared to the “force majeure” write-offs. If I had a multi-million dollar contract “force majeured,” I would definitely be contacting my lawyer and congress-person to see about defining exactly what this “force majeure” clause is and instituting a CLASS ACTION SUIT with fellow writers/producers/directors/actors. I wonder how the AMPTP can get away with “force majeure” when they are one of the driving forces and factors of non-negotiation, in an “act of Man” rather than an “act of God.”
Has anyone explored how the advertisers who bought slots and time feel about this tactic of non-delivery? February Sweeps looks like a goner unless AMPTP closes a deal right before the Holidays forcing the writers to catch everyone up. I can’t believe the AMPTP would also allow their UPFRONTS to suffer with a lack of new material. Makes me wonder what the long term numbers are for so much sacrifice in the short term. I say, based on this behavior, stick to your guns WGA!!! RAISE the demands for each delay. And keep the contract termination date in the Fall. That’s the only way the studios will take an immediate financial hit in the case that we would ever have to strike again.
Comment by Frustrated Bystander — November 28, 2007 @ 5:46 pm
Some of these writer comments show such little business sense, it’s not even funny. And you’re going to take control of your own destiny and do the writer/entrepreneur thing for your own stuff for the web? Who’s going to deal with the business side and figure out a way for the thing to actually make money? Stop being naive, you need them and they need you. It’s a business negotiation, not a Lord Of The Rings style battle of good vs. evil.
Comment by wow — November 28, 2007 @ 5:51 pm
Tom — What “name calling?” Anyway, negotiating in the press has gotten the WGA very far. It got them back to the negotiating table, for one. And that’s a start. The WGA is the underdog and must use whatever strengths it has, such as public opinion, image, etc. Part of the problem in ‘88 was the writers were in a vacuum - without the internet, they didn’t have the means to collectively communicate with the ease of today. That is a huge strength. The AMPTP were gung-ho about using the press until it backfired on them.
Regardless, your posting does seem to blame Nikki for reporting negotiation news. Irrespective of a blackout, it is naive not to expect leaks. Please no more preachy posts about how union negotiations work. We all know, we all get it. But, here we are. GO, NIKKI!
Comment by fromtheinside — November 28, 2007 @ 5:52 pm
Negotiating in the press isn’t what got people unemployed as some poster wrote. This is typical Big Media propaganda, distorting facts.
What got people unemployed is Big Media’s stubborn unreasonable refusal to share any piece of the pie.
Big Media precipitated this fight, not the press.
Shining a light on these tactics expedites and advances a fair resolution.
Thanks Nikki for the ongoing reporting.
Comment by AS — November 28, 2007 @ 6:04 pm
Calm down, people. Of course progress is slow. First off, these are hugely complex issues being discussed. It’s way, way more complicated than “Ok, we’ll give you x cents, have a great day.” It’s going to take more than a day or 2.
Secondly, I don’t pretend to know enough to figure out whether or not waiting out force majure is going to make or cost the studios money, I doubt the studios even know 100% what the implications are. But I do know that absolutely nothing happens in this town for about 3 weeks starting mid-december through the new year. It doesn’t make sense to make a deal on the strike that brings everyone back to work just in time to pay them to take 2 weeks off.
Let’s face it, a victory in these talks would be a deal that gets everyone back to work Jan. 7, and is announced the week before Christmas to put people’s minds at ease for the holidays.
Comment by easy, people — November 28, 2007 @ 6:04 pm
Well, thank God there’s a few smart, sensible people here like astute analysis, Mike, WGA Writer With Business Sense, and Sanity.
They’ve got it right. The media buyers are already threatening the networks, not just with massive make-goods, but also for cash back. And pilot season is right around the corner. The networks will have to make a deal, or they face tremendous revenue loss and the destruction of the 2008 Upfronts.
(This may or may not mean anything, but I’ve heard a few TV studios have begun to inquire their showrunners as to how fast they can get back up and running once the strike is over.)
Now, to the folks who say the WGA should “grow a pair” and ask for more each day a deal is not worked out, I just want to say I thank God you people are not on the negotiating committee. While it might sound good to “get tough,” what do you really think the AMPTP’s reaction would be to that sort of negotiating? We’d be backing them into a corner, just as they backed us into a corner back on Nov 4th.
Fact is, as others have mentioned, the AMPTP has a window of time before the holidays. They will intelligently use that time to try and get us to take the lowest deal possible. I mean, c’mon, put yourself in the AMPTP’s shoes. If you made an offer in the first few days that the WGA agreed to, you’d have to wonder if you offered too much too soon.
So, with the holidays coming up, the AMPTP knows it has a couple of weeks to mess around with. To use baseball terminology, they are going to nibble at the corners, see if the WGA swings at a bad pitch, i.e. take a lowball offer. The WGA has to be patient and use the time to their advantage. Eventually time will run out for the AMPTP if they want to avoid major make-goods, cash back to media buyers and save the pilot season. Which means the AMPTP will have to at some point offer up something decent. Something they know will get the deal done.
As for the folks crying over why the deal hasn’t been made yet, you people have to learn the same lesson’s as the “grow a pair” crowd. Negotiating takes time and being patient is important to successful negotiating. Look, we all want to go back to work, but if this deal doesn’t get done until a week before Christmas, how much work will anyone have lost, given the fact that most shows are still finishing production on their last scripts? Not much really.
This is a major negotiation and there are plenty more issues than internet residuals to deal with. It’s gonna take some time. And the AMPTP will use all the time they feel they have to use. The WGA needs to wait them out. They need to be patient and the rest of us need to be patient.
And by the way, Felicia, I’m on a CBS show that’s not in the top ten, and NOT A SINGLE Christmas gift I’ve received had a CBS logo. Hard to take your comments seriously when you are that wrong.
Comment by Kit Sargent — November 28, 2007 @ 7:44 pm
Just maybe Nick Counter is stupid enough for this exchange.
Patrick Verone: Give us 10 cent DVD and New media residues.
Nick Counter: No
Verone: Yes
Counter: No
Verone: Yes
Counter: No
Verone: Yes
Counter: No
Verone: Yes
Counter: No
Verone: No
Counter: Yes
Verone: No
Counter: Yes
Verone: No
Counter: You are going to get 10 cent DVD and New media residues, and that is final.
Verone: If you put it that way, we’ll take it.
Or this
Verone: Hello, I’m a WGA.
Counter: And I am a AMPTP.
Verone: So how is it going AMPTP?
Counter: Not good, you got us in the PR war and I don’t know what is next.
Verone: How about saving your job by giving us what we want for DVD and New Media.
Counter: I don’t think so, but you can stay while we talk with the DGA.
Verone: Actually we are more united than you think, and some directors think you are a big joke regarding our November 4th talks, and the SAG is clearly on our side.
Counter: I think we’ll accept your proposal now.
(Finish)
Comment by Jessy S. — November 28, 2007 @ 8:22 pm
Sanity,
If we were using our real names I can tell you are someone I’d like to have lunch with, preferably somewhere posh, because when we have our lunch hopefully the whole town is back at work making money and entertaining people.
This force majeure topic is a silly red herring and an excuse to pretend that we are all a. lawyers or b. can speak French.
It is, as you say, in the interests of EVERYONE for this strike to settle, ASAP.
These are publically traded companies. The CEO’s need to get their heads straight and start acting like other Fortune 500 companies, beng mindful and respectful of their stockholders, or they will soon find themselves out of the game. If the strike goes on endlessly, how will they justify the lost revenue?
Wall Street is watching, the Federal government is watching. The so-called “moguls” need to show them that you are effective, sober minded managers who care about your stockholders. Every strike is, ultimately, a sign of bad management. You’re in the business of intellectual property. Follow the example of Silicon Valley and treat those who create your I.P. well, and you’ll have no problems and make lots of money. Make a deal and get on with the business at hand.
This is the age of the information economy. The moguls need to stop acting like robber barons. The people the moguls are trying to suppress aren’t uneducated factory workers, they are intellectuals with the power to communicate, and with face-famous allies (the actors) brilliant generals (the directors) and a free forum (the Internet) to do it.
In the words of the Japanese Admiral, in creating solidarity amongst the creative community, you have awakened a sleeping giant.
Why don’t you just give the giant a cookie and send it back to bed?
Settle it.
Comment by WGA Writer with Business Sense — November 28, 2007 @ 9:13 pm
For all you people who want to take this to the Federal Courts, you realize that the vast majority of federal judges were appointed by guys named Reagan and Bush, correct? Ask anyone who’s employed by a union, they’re terrified to bring issues before the NLRB or the courts, because even with the law 100% on their side, these anti-labor Republican appointees will rule against them and set a horrible prescedent. We do NOT want to go there.
Comment by Anon — November 28, 2007 @ 9:35 pm
“Follow the example of Silicon Valley and treat those who create your I.P. well, and you’ll have no problems and make lots of money.”
Do you think that the people who write code for the games are treated well and get back end? Just like movies, the person on the box or the lead lead dept head makes the money. Isn’t there a movement to get unions into game makers going on because they are being fucked so bad?
Comment by realworldperson — November 29, 2007 @ 6:50 am
To the guy who was complaining about news leaks, a news blackout does not service a swift resolution, a news blackout sucks the fight out of writers and fosters doubt. This is why you’re a studio troll:
http://unitedhollywood.blogspot.com/
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Walking the Picket Line in a Blackout
Something’s very different on the picket line.
Since Thanksgiving, the energy on the picket lines has fallen off. One picketer was even seen reading a book while he walked the picket line.
It seems like only yesterday that we were chanting to stop trucks from crossing the picket line or “2-4-6-8, Why won’t they negotiate.” The turnout and the energy paid off. The AMPTP rejoined us at the negotiating table and that was great.
But now….we wait….in a news blackout.
Getting the agreement to restart the negotiations felt climactic, because so much energy had to be expended to get the AMPTP to do the right thing, but “restarting” the talks didn’t mean “concluding” them.
Monday Nikki Finke raised our hopes: a deal’s been worked out. Tuesday she lowered our expectations: time at the table didn’t mean moving forward.
Nikki, like everyone else, is trying to read the tea leaves. And we want something to happen. We’d like to think it’s all been worked out; they’re just withholding the good news so they can surprise us for the holidays.
On the picket lines, the dark stuff comes out.
“The AMPTP didn’t want to restart the negotiations. Their bad polling numbers forced them to sit down again. They aren’t really serious about the negotiations. All they’re really doing is running out the clock, stalling until all the force majeure money drops into their pockets.”
And that leads to the really dark stuff.
“The ‘news blackout’ and then the hopeful press about a deal’s-already-done sucks off the good energy we had going before Thanksgiving. The AMPTP doesn’t want us to get daily updates because then we’ll see how they aren’t willing to give us a fair deal. Flip it the other way: if we think we already have a deal–that’s really Machiavellian–why fight when you think you’ve already won?”
A lot of tea leaf-reading.
But there’s no question that we know a couple of things, for sure. We all want a deal, because we’d rather go back to work. But there isn’t a deal yet. And, most importantly, we haven’t won so we have to keep doing what we’ve been doing.
We’re still in a fight. That’s the only news flash we’ll get in a news blackout.
So now what?
If you were picketing or blogging or posting videos on YouTube or talking with fans or working with other unions, you have to keep doing it–all that is part of the process, just as much as the work our negotiating committee does in rooms in unnamed hotels.
And they can’t do their work if we don’t do ours.
We need to be on the picket lines with as many people as possible, with as much energy as before, making it clear that the strike is important, that we know we’re fighting for our future, that it’s not over yet, that we’ll do whatever we have to, and that “We Matter”.
Comment by showrunner — November 29, 2007 @ 6:53 am
I hope the wga doesn’t go with the ‘raising the demands each negotiation session’ tactic — that can also work in reverse — if i were on the producer’s negotiating team, I would start offering lower offers every time the WGA raised theirs. If the producers really are just delaying so that they can invoke force majeure and ready to cancel the season, I wouldn’t be surprised for them to use any tactic no matter how counter productive to resolution.
Comment by John — November 29, 2007 @ 7:04 am
I agree with “fromtheinside” that the WGA is winning the PR battle so far. But stating that “Folks like “Tom” are clearly trolls for AMPTP” is name calling and it has no place here.
I have never suggested that Nikki stop reporting but have expressed that negotiating in the press at this juncture is counterproductive. Hey, I read 3 newspapers, both trades and this blog every single day (ok, I read this blog 5 times a day)looking for something that will indicate light at the end of the tunnel. But if you get your wish and they move their negotiating back to the court of public opinion it will be a clear indication that the talks have broken down. I just do not want to see that. I want this settled.
Tom
Comment by Tom — November 29, 2007 @ 7:43 am
Dear Kit,
I’m glad you got a nice gift from CBS. Obviously that completely discredits everything I’ve said. I am so wrong. Leslie Moonves loves you and wants you to have only the best. I agree with much of what you say, nonetheless. Catfighting aside, you are obviously intelligent and have your own valid opinions. So, be patient. You’re absolutely right - negotiating takes time. Especially when, at this time, you have the lower hand. That tide could turn if you are willing to wait it out.
And if you need to take a vacation anytime soon I know an entire cast and crew of a top 20 multi season CBS show that will give you their CBS totes and baseball caps they got last year. Part of what I was saying was sarcastic, and I’m sorry you missed that. Maybe you got a cashmere throw without the logo on it, I’m just saying that nobody’s getting the rolexes that CSI gets unless they’re bringing in the numbers. And that wasn’t the major point anyway. I think you completely missed my point completely. That’s okay! There’s nothing wrong with debate.
Comment by Felicia — November 29, 2007 @ 11:01 am