FRIDAY AM: Yes, it's the start of another nailbiter for gross receipts this summer weekend as blockbusters bust a move in movie theaters. Right now my box office gurus are saying the totals for both films by Sunday look neck-and-neck: between $40 million to $45 million. Naturally, Fox especially is trying to lower 5-day expectations for Live Free Or Die Hard by projecting high $30s (as in millions) since its adult action marketplace is so jammed with high-profile product right now. Disney / Pixar's Ratatouille debuting today also faces a lot of existing family fare yet still managed to score a bountiful 3,940 theaters. And Disney tells me that its toon's tracking has "gotten stronger every day." So ... Will Remy the Rat die hard? Will Bruce Willis get French fried? It's always tough to know what a pic will do from Friday through Sunday when it opens on the Wednesday before. That's the case with Fox's Die Hard 4, which took in $9.1 million Wednesday and $5.9 mil Thursday from 3,408 theaters. While that wasn't anywhere near a record -- only 27th for top single day grosses on a Wednesday -- the studio's exit polls are through the roof for the over the top stunt-filled pic. "Only film that delivers on the hype this summer," is a popular response, and Fox insiders are calling these exit polls the best they've seen since Speed. "These exit polls indicate for the first time this summer that audiences are satisfied and not feeling ripped off," a Fox insider explained to me. The studio knows it won't break daily or weekend records, but could play for a long time. Even the film reviewers have gone ga-ga for the flying cars, huge fireballs, collapsing freeways, and other implausible stunts culminating when a car takes out a helicopter: RottenTomatoes.com is giving Live Free Or Die Hard an overwhelming "fresh" score of 77% from even the snooty critics from major media outlets.

Interestingly, before its debut, the pic had been tracking good but not great, especially doing well with older men and older females who knew the John McClane character well. So I'm told the studio set out to "educate" the under-25 crowd on who was this wise-cracking yippee-ki-yay yelling hero since it had been so long between sequels (back to 1995 when Bruce was still married to Demi). Then again, the Yahoo trailer tested higher than those for any action movie in Fox history. One interesting note: Die Hard 4's premiere at NYC's Radio City Music Hall last Friday was filled with 500 off-duty cops and the audience jumped up and cheered at many moments. Another is that, to make this deal, Willis did not back off his deal which from the start of the franchise has been among the richest. But with a young director, baby-faced co-stars, and little CGI though a lot of analog action, Fox was able to make the film for no more than $125 mil, a veritable bargain this summer of the $300+ mil tentpoles. "We just know how to do that stuff for less," one insider told me. "All our movies are made for less. It's what we do."

In the same vein, Disney / Pixar should have it down to a science by now. But lately this one-two punch of creativity and marketing doesn't pack the box office wallop it once did. Analysts don't expect Ratatouille to equal the $60 mil opening weekend of Cars. But here's another difference between these toons: Cars was a merchandising bonanza while Ratatouille won't be. (What parent wants their kid to hug a plush toy rat?) Still, film reviewers found this toon delicious (an eye-popping 93% fresh reviews on RottenTomatoes.com). No doubt this movie deserves to be seen. Its true financial prospects won't become clear until the Saturday kid matinees. Of course, what appeals to sophisticated film critics may not be accessible to parents or children who can't pronounce the title and don't care about French gourmet repast (unless The Food Network has changed that). Here's hoping the rat doesn't get gout.

Today's Los Angeles Times story finally writes what I've been reporting for the past month about Universal's Evan Almighty, even down to identical language. Theirs: "Saying prayers as Evan Almighty opens to $32 million". Mine: "Moguls at the studio are resorting to just plain prayers." But the LAT didn't even bother to look at the tracking before the pic's release, or the marketing problems, or the exit polling after, as I did, which all tell the story of why the movie opened so weakly. True, Fox's much less expensive, better reviewed, and under the radar Night At The Museum opened to only $30 mil -- but at the end of the Christmas movie season when there was virtually no upcoming competition left for the PG or PG-13 audience. Whereas this crowded summer, blockbuster-branded and critically panned Evan Almighty faces Disney / Pixar's Ratatouille (PG) next week, and future rivalry from Warner's Harry Potter And The Order Of The Phoenix (PG-13), New Line's Hairspray (PG) and Fox's The Simpsons (PG-13). As a result, Night At The Museum went on to make $250 mil domestic. Evan Almighty, I'm told, will have trouble making it much past $100 mil.

1. 'Evan Almighty' Debuts Weak
2. 'Evan Almighty': Going To Heaven Or Hell?
3. Shadyac Mayhem Over 'Evan' Marketing

The summer box office is about to overheat with so many movies racing into theaters, so the studios understandably have a bad case of pre-release flopsweat. Warner's Harry Potter And The Order Of The Phoenix (July 11th) just came onto tracking "huge" which isn't surprising since the next book comes out around the same time. Harry is no longer a cute little tween. He's now an edgy rebellious teen. (This tracking mitigates the talk I've been hearing: that the film had trade screenings in Kansas City, Memphis and New Orleans and reportedly "was considered boring and lacking in magic by teens, who felt that it didn't advance the story or characters. They said it was shorter but felt longer," a source at a rival studio told me.) My sentiment is don't bet against the Harry Potter movies, ever. They're a cut above.

I'm told DreamWorks' Transformers (July 3rd), which was tracking "gigantic" last week, is still "as big as Harry" now. (But not in the Spidey or Pirates stratosphere -- yet.) And its merchandise crap is the hottest in Hollywood. (So maybe Spielberg was right to keep the robots under wraps as long as humanly possible.) My box office gurus keep trying to get their arms around an opening number, but it's next to impossible what with the Paramount pic's debut on a Tuesday. Its roll-out over the Fourth Of July week is also going to wreak havoc with the 3-day number from Friday to Sunday used to compare box office. But from the tracking, this robot pic isn't going to need to break records for PR spin.

Disney's Ratatouille (June 29th) is "usual Pixar big." My analysts forsee a $60 million opening weekend, which would put it on a par with Cars. But here's the difference between these toons: Cars was a merchandising bonanza while Ratatouille won't be. (What parents want to see their kid embrace a plush toy Remy?) I still think that sophisticated film critics are enjoying this movie better than parents and  children will. It's got an unpronounceable title, it's set in Paris (people hate the French), and it's about gourmet cooking (not accessible to America's heartland unless the Food Network has changed that).

Fox's Live Free Or Die Hard (June 27th) continues to track "good but not great." I find this a surprise considering the incredibly well-done ad campaign with special effects that seem to defy gravity. But it's been eons since the last sequel. Expect an opening in the $30+ millions.

After Dark's torture porn Captivity (July 13th) is tracking a big zero even with its Friday The 13th opening which is traditionally favored by horror pics. Hopefully, it'll meet an even worse fate than Lionsgate's torture porn Hostel II. 

There's none of the usual reassuring platitudes. Instead, moguls at the studio are resorting to just plain prayers. Because Universal isn’t even trying to hide its nerves about the opening number this Friday for Hollywood’s most expensive comedy ever, Evan Almighty, or what the movie could make in gross receipts overall. Don't get me wrong, it'll open, either to the $50+ mil my box office gurus are projecting, or the $40 mil the studio is understating. (Every major is a master of lowered expectations this summer.) But, given the $210 mil budget, I'm told it needs $500 million worldwide to be really profitable. Universal, of course, calls this "voodoo math". It claims that the pic's budget is only $175 mil and with no first-dollar gross players thanks to a renegotiation it can see a profit at $250 mil worldwide.

So what's the problem? The parents and kids tracking, which is not included as part of general tracking and therefore not immediately accessible to journalists. I'm told parents were rejecting this big summer film as appropriate family fare because they thought it was the exact sequel to Bruce Almighty and therefore too mature. (Other big four-quadrant PG blockbusters like Night At The Museum didn’t have to contend with this unique "sequel that isn't really a sequel" situation.) "It's awful. It hasn't moved in weeks," a source from a rival studio told me. "Can you tell me how a movie that is PG rated, has 3,000 animals, and boasts God, can't get parents to take their kids?"

It’s not all bad news for the latest Almighty. Many of the other tracking numbers are finally shooting upwards these last days leading to release because of the studio’s Hail Mary marketing onslaught. The "First Choice" numbers for kids doubled over the weekend and and is doubling day by day, while “Want To See” among tweens, teens and young adults keeps rising. But while the movie now has a very high "Awareness" factor, which is a given for a follow-up to a successful film, the crucial indicator of "Unaided Awareness" is still very low. "All our different marketing campaigns are finally starting to really crystallize and accelerate. But we don't have 'Unaided Awareness' yet where we need to see it," a Universal source admitted to me last night. (Today, that figure rose as well.) 

It's a risk when 40% of a studio's movie marketing campaign, by design, is back-loaded like this one. Rightly or wrongly, that strategy was devised for this crowded summer marketplace where tentpole after tentpole is opening weekend after weekend, and moviegoers show signs of sequel fatigue. It saves money (and keeps Universal’s penny-pinching parent company GE from nagging). But it's already pissed off producer/director Tom Shadyac who I previously reported had an explosive meltdown during a Universal marketing meeting about his pic. I'm told Ryan Kavanaugh of Relativity Media, whose tanking Gun Hill Road 2 independent co-financing fund is one of the movie’s principal investors, is among those privately criticizing Evan Almighty's budget and marketing as well. (Kavanaugh is publicly boasting how he capped his share of the costs so the more Evan goes over, the more Uni has to absorb by itself.) Then again, Universal is accustomed to being crapped on for this movie by more than just the animals.

No one would have given a rat’s ass if the movie's budget hadn't done a slow creep way beyond its initial $150 million comfort zone or the film hadn’t been an 89-minute quickie in the comedy genre which is usually cheap to make without the CGI. (Universal’s own R-rated comedy Knocked Up this summer cost a mere $30 mil. And later in the summer, it'll have the PG-13 laugher I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry.) But reporters couldn’t ignore the first smells surrounding a piss-poor combination of animals who didn't want to perform, children who can't work long hours, and weather in Virginia that didn’t cooperate.

Evan Almighty had already been put into production when Marc Shmuger and David Linde entered into their shotgun marriage to run Universal Pictures, with Universal Studios President/COO Ron Meyer playing minister. So don't judge their still brief tenure by this film. There wasn’t much the duo could do for an inadequately budgeted pic in the first place beyond renegotiating profit participation deals so the studio could jettison the first dollar gross players and have at least a prayer of recouping its dough. (There's a "past cash" break now.) In the meantime, the pair have changed the way their studio's film budgets are drawn up and directed, upping Jimmy Horowitz from biz affairs into the newly created role of co-prez of production, aka beancounter as mogul. Even so, few inside or outside the studio initially worried about Evan Almighty’s prospects. Almost everyone thought the pic would be a slam dunk the same way Bruce Almighty was in 2003 when it scored a $68 million opening weekend and went on to nearly $500 million gross receipts worldwide. And this new script had even more God-is-great propaganda than the first one.

Universal moguls have convinced themselves that religious America will turn out for this family fun in droves. I’m not so sure, and I may look like an idiot at the end of the summer by saying so. Even though the studio is dragging out every trick in the Christian playbook, including that PR firm to the religious Grace Hill Media, to convince holy-rollers in fly-over country to see this take-off on the already tired Noah’s Ark tale. I suspect The Passion Of The Christ crowd wants stories based on the New Testament than the Old Testament. Leave it to heathen Hollywood not to comprehend that.

But Evan isn’t so much a Bruce sequel as it is a spin-off, more like an adopted brother than a blood brother with very different DNA in terms of content and audience appeal. And yet the studio marketing still told audiences that Bruce begat Evan. Instead of Jim Carrey, the pic has not-nearly-as-famous Steve Carell (but considering the trajectory of Jim’s career vs Steve’s right now, that could turn out not to be a bad thing except in foreign markets). The rating has gone from PG-13 to PG. A two-quadrant pic became a four-quadrant movie. The boob and toilet jokes are gone in Evan. Instead, the humor has been sacrificed at the altar of heartwarming. Last week, both Variety and The Hollywood Reporter reviews complained about the lack of yucks. 

Still the studio is placing its trust in Shadyac, whose movies (Ace Ventura, The Nutty Professor, Liar Liar and Patch Adams) don’t please snot-nosed critics but satisfy lame-ass audiences. Now, even the long-standing relationship between the director and Universal is frayed. That became evident a few weeks ago when he blew up at a studio marketing meeting, bitch-slapped executives and fired his own long-time marketing consultants Buffy Shutt and Kathy Jones. Even though the director calmed down later and apologized, even though he always gets nervous before his movies open, Shadyac was unusually maniacal because he thought Universal wasn't buying enough TV time. (See my previous: Shadyac Mayhem Over 'Evan' Marketing for more detail.) Since his blow-up, Shadyac is looking right on the money and Universal is looking wrong. 

Warner's Harry Potter commercials were already on the air in May even though it doesn't open until July 11th. But not Evan Almighty. Though TV ads started popping up recently on Nickelodeon and networks, the studio was also marketing the pic in non-traditional ways through 50-city screenings aimed at church groups and religious leaders. Also, movies like Spider-Man 3 and Pirates of the Caribbean 3, which opened on the same day in markets around the world, garnered humongous global marketing budgets, whereas Evan Almighty spent the usual $50 million for a domestic only release. Shadyac wanted the marketing for his $210 million pic to increase accordingly to at least $80 mil. Universal balked. "We're not just going to throw money away because Tom wants to become part of the big summer blockbuster culture," a studio insider told me. Get real. That’s exactly how it’s done.

Whose fault this is, Universal’s or GE’s, is debatable. "It's no secret that GE is looking for ways to cut costs and one of the places those people look first is movie marketing," a Uni source explained. "The parent company keeps asking, 'Why do we have to buy so much network time? And why so early? And why can't we buy it just a week before?' "

Presently, box office gurus expect attendance to fall off sharply Evan's second week out because of this brutal summer. Competing films like Disney/Pixar’s Ratatouille (opens June 29th) is garnering great reviews while Paramount / DreamWork's Transformers (July 3rd) is tracking gigantic. And even though Night At The Museum debuted to only $30 million, it kept going and going for $572 mil worldwide. One of the Universal moguls tells me after some arm-twisting he'd be satisfied with $125 mil before the pic starts opening overseas. To me, that meager figure is Evan Almighty gone to hell, not heaven.

Previous: Shadyac Mayhem Over 'Evan' Marketing 

Given how tough the marketplace already is this summer for sequels, I expected a lot of controversy over the weekend box office prospects for Fantastic Four: Rise of The Silver Surfer. And is there ever. My box office gurus tell me they expect the Fox comic book caper to make $50+ million in gross receipts from its 3,957 theaters. (That's less than the original, which took in $56M from 3,619 after opening; it went on to make $154.6M domestically and $175.4M overseas for a total of $330.1M.) But I'm told Fox execs would faint if Silver Surfer got to that number and they don't think it's possible. "Not in this summer. It's a tough market. If it does Ocean's numbers, they'd be thrilled," said a source, referring to the $37 mil that pic made last weekend. Also explaining the wide variation in numbers is that the movie skews young, and they're hard to predict this summer. The studio keeps claiming it kept the cost down to around $125 mil. That's rare to have a "1" in front of it, instead of a "2" or a "3", like most of the tentpoles so far. Meanwhile, my film financing experts agree with Fox's cautiousness: "The tracking reflects an opening consistent with lower-level Marvel pics," an insider emailed me. Meanwhile, look for a lot of noise about the comic book company Monday when The New York Times kicks off the week with a big business section story about Marvel Studios.

SUNDAY AM: Ocean's Thirteen washed over the competition but went well under weekend projections as Warner's said the third in the franchise opened with $37 million from 3,565 theaters. But rival studios say only $35.5M to $36.1M; there's no apparent reason for this big a disparity. Not only is that total far less than the $45M to $50M projected by box office gurus, but it's not equal to the other two Ocean's films. (For those of you keeping score, Eleven opened with $38.1M from Friday to Sunday in 3,075 venues, while Twelve debuted at $39.1M in 3,290 playdates). Again, U.S. moviegoers look seasick on sequels, even though reviews were good for the threequel again starring George Clooney and Brad Pitt and again directed by Steven Soderbergh. But overseas, audiences continue to have sequel fever: I'm told Ocean's was No. 1 in the UK, Spain, Hong Kong and a slew of other foreign territories. The ferocious competition for domestic gross receipts at the megaplex will only become more intense as the summer movie season progresses with what was supposed to be risk-free programming. It's giving Hollywood moguls nightmares! (Look next for Transformers, which is tracking huge, to break out among the blockbusters.)

Disney's four-quadrant blockbuster Pirates Of The Caribbean 3 battled back for second place over Universal's R-rated original comedy Knocked Up despite the huge disparity in number of playdates (2,876 for the Judd Apatow laugher compared with 4,002 for Jack Sparrow and crew). At World's End in its third week made $21.3M for a new cume of $253.6M, while Knocked Up in its second week took in $20M (-35%) for a new cume of $66.2M. P3 made $72.3M worldwide this weekend, including $51M internationally, bringing its global cume to $746.6M, including $493M internationally. That's a lotta loot!

Sony's penguin Surf's Up wasn't so cowabunga. It was the top toon and #4 pic, but its opening weekend of $18M from 3,528 theaters rode below expectations. Too much competition still from DreamWorks Animation's Shrek The Third, which finished No. 5 with $15.7M from 3,925 venues; its new cume is $281.8M.

For weeks, I and other Hollywood journalists have been criticizing the disgusting torture porn content of Lionsgate's Hostel II. Maybe that hurt the pic's prospects, along with piracy and the fact it was sold under the brand of Eli Roth and not Quentin Tarantino, because it didn't make anywhere close to last year's $19.5M opening in 2,337 theaters by the original. Placing 6th, the sequel opened to just $8.3M from 2,350 playdates. MGM's unthrilling Mr. Brooks, starring has-beens Kevin Costner and Demi Moore, continues to disappoint: it made only $18.3M from 2,453 theaters for 7th place and a paltry new cume of $18.3M. With a new cume of $325.6M, Spider-Man 3 is still atop the summer movie cumulative box office. Finishing 8th on Friday, it took in $4.4M from 2,570 venues. In the 9th spot is Fox Searchlight's Waitress; playing in only 708 venues, it scored $1.6M and a new cume of $12M. And rounding out the Top 10, DreamWorks / Paramount's Disturbia starts its 9th week in release with $550K from 568 theaters for a new cume of $77.7M.
Here's the Top 10 chart:

1. 1. Ocean's Thirteen $13M Fri, $13.5M Sat, and est $10M Sun. (cume $37M)
2. 2. Pirates Carib $6.2M Fri, $8.9M Sat, and est $6.6M Sun. ($253.6M)
3. 3. Knocked Up 3 $6.2M Fri, $7.9M Sat, and est $6.3M Sun. ($66.2M)
4. 4. Surf's Up $5.8M Fri, $6.8M Sat, and est $5.4M Sun. ($18M)
5. 5. Shrek The Third $4.3M Fri, $6.3M Sat, and est $4.9M Sun. ($281.8M)
6. 6. Hostel II $3.4M Fri, $2.8M Sat, and est $2M Sun. ($8.3M)
7. 7. Mr. Brooks $1.3M Fri, $1.9M Sat, and est $1.3M Sun. ($18.3M)
8. 8. Spider-Man 3 $1.2M Fri, $1.8M Sat, and est $1.3M Sun. ($325.6M)
9. 9. Waitress $460K Fri, $710K Sat, and est $480K Sun. ($1.6M)
10. 10. Disturbia $180K Fri, $227K Sat, and est $143K Sun. ($77.7M)

Fox's Rise Of the Silver Surfer "came on well" via-a-vis tracking today. (Did you catch the ad inserted into NBC's Heroes big finale?) Of course, it's hard to tell what with all these mega-blockbusters surrounding it, but box office gurus are telling me that the pic looks ripe even this early for a "fantastic" June 15th opening. Meanwhile, here's a piece of trivia: director Tony Scott and producer Jerry Bruckheimer hired Quentin Tarantino to script a scene about the Silver Surfer for Crimson Tide. In fact there've been a lot of references to the enigmatic globe-gliding character in the movies. Must be because he has a Christ-like connotation.

So what can a pic do the weekend after it's made $151 million domestically and $382 mil globally and broken nearly every opening record to boot? (Hint: it doesn't go to Disney World.) Well, if it's Spider-Man 3 still in the widest U.S. release ever with 4,252 theaters, and it's up against a highly anticipated horror flick sequel (Fox Atomic's 28 Days Later) and a critically panned chick flick (Morgan Creek / Universal's Georgia Rule), the answer is: you keep making gobs of green. My box office gurus say Spidey will do between $60 mil and $70 mil this weekend, putting the film's domestic cume at $250 mil just one week out.

Meanwhile, stellar tracking for Shrek The Third has DreamWorks Animation mighty relieved that it appears critic-proof. (Finke/LA Weekly: Blockbusters Cometh) I'm told the toon should make no less than $90 mil and more likely as much as $100 mil at the box office when it opens Friday May 18th. And, yes, that release date is firm. No early Wednesday or Thursday sneaks planned. 

And the tracking for Disney's Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World's End is predictably gargantuan. Since it'll open Thursday night of Memorial Weekend (Disney Moves Up Release Of 'Pirates 3'), I'm told to expect a 4-day U.S. gross of between $150 mil and $175 mil even with an unofficial running time of 2 hours and 47 minutes. And, remember, P3 is opening day and date in about 100+ territories, so expect a huge foreign gross as well. Normally, those kind of sky-high figures would cause Hollywood to walk the gangplank. But it still remains to be seen if Johnny Depp and the crew can beat SM3's ozone-level 3-day weekend debut numbers. Me-thinks not.

In my latest  column, The Blockbusters Cometh, some of the biggest Hollywood movies expected to earn $4.5 billion from May through August are too long and too costly, and their plots uneven. A lot of spirituality is written into stories, which, if overdone, could be nauseating. Some small dramas seem inappropriate for summer releases, too many toons could mean animation overload, and a lot of horror pics and chick flicks won’t see daylight in the shadow of all the tent-pole releases.

Welcome to the 2007 Summer Movie Season...

May 4: Not only did Warner Bros. wait to release the Curtis Hanson–directed Lucky You two years after it wrapped, but they dumped it opposite that man-boy in a spider suit. The execs obviously share my opinion that a Drew Barrymore–Eric Bana combo can’t open a movie. As for Spider-Man 3, its 140-minute running time is ass-numbing, even though director Sam Raimi ties up loose ends from SM1 and SM2. On the other hand, For the U.S. market, Sony Pictures has made 11,000+ prints and rounded up 4,000+ theaters to show the film as well as sneak it in major cities around the country with Thursday midnight showings. (At Pacific’s The Grove Stadium 14 in Los Angeles, screenings will start at 12:01 a.m., 12:05 a.m., 12:10 a.m., 12:15 a.m. and 12:20 a.m.) Obviously, the studio is doing everything it can to ensure that the threequel makes over $100-plus mil its opening weekend, before any bad word of mouth sets in. (SM1 took in $114 mil and SM2 $88 mil.) But privately, Sony dreams of a greedy $150 mil debut, given the pic’s hefty $300-plus-mil unofficial price tag.

May 11: Spider-Man 3 gets another clear shot because nothing big is opening. Universal is counterprogramming with the chick flick Georgia Rule and a terrific cast of Jane Fonda, Felicity Huffman and Lindsay Lohan. But Garry Marshall has gone a long time between hits. Fox Atomic scares up the horror sequel 28 Days Later.

May 18: The buzz on DreamWorks Animation's Shrek the Third has been that it’s nowhere near as good as the first or second installment. You know expectations are supersoft when an insider jokes that the movie should build its marketing campaign around the toon’s running time. “Parents, it’s only 81 minutes!” Talk is that Eddie Murphy snagged $25 mil to be a jackass again. Right now, tracking shows that the pic will be big, but not Spider-Man 3 or Pirates 3 big, even with, or in spite of, Justin Timberlake voicing. (more...)

Think of it as the quiet before the storm: Expect a lackluster movie weekend before the sizzling Summer Movie Season officially kicks off the following Friday with Spider-Man 3. With no significant competition, Paramount's Next with Nicolas Cage should finish this Friday-Saturday-Sunday as No. 1 with low teens, as in millions. But its reviews were lousy, so maybe not. (This is a Revolution /  Paramount pic, as compared to the many DreamWorks pics which Paramount has been distributing with a lot of success lately.) How Next fares could be a referendum on Cage's box office popularity. Ghost Rider, which did great biz, wasn't because it was based on the Marvel comic character. Anyway, expect the overall box office to be way down again since nothing very exciting is opening or holding over. (Last weekend's B.O. was -20% vs 2006). OK, I'm taking the rest of the day off.

Paramount/DreamWorks Deal Looks Better Now

So what's dark and disturbed Spider-Man 3 going to "web" in for its U.S. opening weekend May 4th-6th? Well, given the good and even great reviews starting to trickle in, and the amazing 90% awareness out there among audiences showing up in tracking, my box office gurus are telling me at this early date to "split the difference" between Spider-Man 1 ($114 mil) and Spider-Man 2 ($88 mil) -- so that's $101 mil. Sony needs to get those wheelbarrows ready for the cash, despite that $250 mil pricetag (which may really be $300+ mil). Jeez, I remember when any movie budget over $100 mil used to make Hollywood faint. Then $150 mil induced a cold sweat. But this sequel-crazed summer of the high rollers, the moguls aren’t even blinking at figures above $200 mil.

I'm told that DreamWorks/Paramount's Disturbia and Revolution/Sony's Perfect Stranger are in a dead heat for No. 1 going into this weekend. But I think Disturbia could do much better (it also has a great trailer). Forecast is for both movies to take in between mid to high teens (as in millions of dollars) at the box office for Friday-Saturday-Sunday. Rated PG-13, Disturbia starring Shia LaBeouf (who just snagged Indiana Jones 4), is in more theaters (2,925) and has a shorter running time of 1 hour 44 minutes. It's Rear Window suspense re-made for tweens and teens and twentysomethings. Old-fashioned thriller Perfect Stranger starring Halle Berry and Bruce Willis and directed by James Foley (Glengarry Glen Ross), skews older. It's being shown in 2,661 theaters but will be handicapped by its R rating. Too bad Berry doesn't have more substantial nudity in the pic.... (Isn't that why Swordfish opened so well?)

EXCLUSIVE (refresh for latest): It's very early, still. But I'm told the first round of tracking for Spider-Man 3 is better than the first pulse that was registered for either Spidey 1 or 2 pics in this all-important Sony franchise. Remember: the first two had a combined worldwide theatrical gross of $1.6 billion: $821.7 million for Spider-Man 1 and $783.7 mil for Spider-Man 2. "The early awareness and indicators are through the roof," one box office guru told me. Said another expert: "With so many other movies struggling for attention this year, SM3 came on [tracking] with over 90% awareness and over 20% first choice a month out." The big upside for Spider-Man 3, I'm told, is that moviergoers are responding like crazy to director Sam Raimi's dark and disturbing "Black Spidey" very cool iconography that characterizes the third installment along with its tag line "The Greatest Battle Lies Within." With great trailers, aggressive Internet and TV promotion, and a storyline which the other two films seemed to building towards, Spider-Man 3 should amass a $100+ million opening weekend in the United States beginning May 4th because, based on tracking, "the number is massive," I'm told. (SM1 had a $114 mil opening weekend and SM2 $88 mil.) The new pic's release will be a global event. Spider-Man 3 will debut first in China before it officially opens in North America. Since comic book caper kicks off the 2007 summer movie season, this is clearly going to be a banner year at the box office -- probably the biggest in cinematic history -- given all the sequels, prequels and tentpole pics being released. (See my LA Weekly column Orgy Of Sequels Climaxing In 2007.) There's one downside: Wall Street film financing experts tell me that, based on SM3's budget, it may well be the most expensive film ever made. Sony privately is admitting to a budget of $250 mil, but analysts tell me it's more like $300+ mil. (The previous $$$ record-holder is Warner's remake of Charlie And The Chocolate Factory which cost about $272 mil, analysts say.) And that's even without the promotion and advertising costs which are said to be another $75+ mil. (more...)

SUNDAY AM: Blades of Glory, a PG-13 co-production between DreamWorks and MTV Films and released by Paramount, finished Easter weekend No. 1 starting its second week out. The figure skating comedy made $23 mil on 3,410 for Friday-Saturday-Sunday, just a 30% drop from its opening weekend. Right now, its new cumulative box office is $68.3 mil. One fact not  being touted in this Will Ferrell/John Heder starring pic's success is that it came from Red Hour Films, which is Ben Stiller's production company. So chalk up another big win for the actor/director/producer who is rapidly becoming the king of Hollywood comedy. But today, major players in the movie capital were talking about the utter collapse at the box office of Grindhouse, that double-feature from celebrated directors Quentin Tarantino and Robert Rodriguez. (I had wondered here if the movie could live up to the Weinsteins' hype.) Despite decent reviews, the hard "R"-rated pic filled with blood and violence took in just $12 million this weekend -- nowhere near even the lowest $20 mil opening predicted (or the $25 mil debut anticipated after midnight sneaks were arranged in major cities). The weekend take was far, far below the openings for, say, Rodriguez's Sin City ($29.1 mil) or Tarantino's Kill Bill 1 ($22 mil) and 2 ($25.1 mil). The Weinstein Co. has been plagued by bomb after bomb since its 2005 inception after Miramax founders Harvey and Bob couldn't come to terms with Disney. The new company had a lot riding on this pic in terms of reputation. (Not to mention money: I hear the real budget for Grindhouse is $67.5 mil though Harvey and Bob were spinning it as low $50s.) But the take of only $5 mil Friday, $4 mil Saturday, and an estimated $2.9 mil Sunday from the 2,624 theaters where the Planet Terror and Death Proof combo (complete with its block of fake movie trailers) is playing, was only good enough for 4th place among the Top 10 movies. Worse, the the box office dropped an unusually large 19% from Friday to Saturday. And its per screen average was anemic, meaning that the pic was playing in near empty venues. This is a body blow to TWC, which had been touting its relationships with filmmakers like Tarantino and Rodriguez to attract investors. I reported Thursday that TWC's Dimension label had been spooked by the only so-so tracking that Grindhouse has been receiving; that's why a bunch of last-minute midnight screenings were added to Friday's official release date. I'd also heard there were some 11 pm screenings Thursday which technically shouldn't be included in the movie's final weekend take but probably will if TWC is desperate enough. (This is a favorite Hollywood trick.) Clearly, the Weinsteins' legendary prowess for media exploitation, which had been working overtime on this exploitation movie, couldn't hide the problems of a running time over 3 hours, a release date delayed by half a year, and the subject matter's limited audience appeal. Plus, younger and hungrier directors in recent years have been pushing the envelope to create wilder and rawer horror pics, so it seems Tarantino and Rodriguez couldn't compete on their more famous playing field. Instead, this weekend followed 2007's trend of making family films and PG-13 comedies the favorites at the box office. (more...)

This weekend's box office matchup of same-sex figure skaters vs 3-D toon looks like it could be easy to predict: Dreamworks/Paramount's Blades Of Glory #1 since it's got reliable funnyman Will Ferrell and cult favorite John Heder (Napoleon Dynamite). And Disney's 3-D toon Meet The Robinsons is likely a close #2. But that ain't necessarily so. Maybe they'll be neck-and-neck. For one thing, CBS is broadcasting those epic NCAA basketball match-ups on Saturday (UCLA vs Florida, Ohio State vs Georgetown). So box office gurus say that could hurt Blades. But every guy young and old I know wants to see this pic, and Will Ferrell in a high concept parody like this almost always guarantees a $30+ mil debut especially in 3,317 theaters. (His spoof Talledega Nights opened to $47 mil thanks to the NASCAR fans.) So the feeling is the new pic could pass $40 mil. But a safe bet is mid-to-high 30s, as in millions. As for Meet The Robinsons, its 3-D extra value adds a new wrinkle. "They've never had this many 3-D theaters. They don't know what that's going to mean in terms of top spin," an insider tells me. Some 600 of the 3,413 screens where the toon will be playing have been equipped with Disney's brand new 3-D technology. "It's no longer gimmicky red and green lenses," the source adds. "It could push them into the 30s." Plus, it only has a 92 minute running time. Another good sign: before last Sunday's premiere, media were barraging Disney PR for passes because their kids were nagging them to go. And spring vacations in schools are just starting, so the rug rats will be out in force for the next two weeks. (FYI, look for a big Robinsons print campaign showing the T-Rex wearing two big sponge thumbs-up.) This CG pic, like Chicken Little, is from Disney's own animation studios, not from Pixar. So a lot's riding on it. The feeling is that the toon will end up with high 20s/low 30s -- as in millions. By the way, this same weekend a year ago posted a total $140 mil at the box office, thanks to Ice Age 2. So there's a lot of potential moolah out there.

SUNDAY AM: It wasn't even a fair fight between computer-generated imagery on the big screen. On Friday, 100% CGI-created Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles easily knocked those 300 CGI-helped hardbodies off their No. 1 pedestal. So who benefits the most? Warner Bros., which has bragging rights to both hit pics. Turtles fought their way to a $24.5 million weekend from 3,110 theaters, compared to 300's $20.7 mil weekend from 3,280 venues. At issue was just how much nostalgia there would be among teens who grew up with TMNT the first time around. But the Turtles' fourth feature is grittier than the previous live-action films, and that worked for PG audiences. (TMNT is produced by Imagi Animation Studios and distributed by Warner Bros. Pictures and The Weinstein Company -- the latter two bought the rights from New Line.) The blockbuster 300 dropped only 38% starting its 3rd week out for a hot new cume of $162.5 mil. This R-rated gorefest has exploded into a cultural phenomenon judging from all the smart parodies now available on YouTube. Mark Wahlberg's so-so reviewed thriller Shooter from Paramount opened in 3rd place, making $14.5 mil for Friday-Saturday-Sunday from 2,806 playdates. Disney's Wild Hogs continues its long motorcycle ride in 4th, with a $14.1 mil weekend from 3,401 theaters and a hefty new cume of $123.6 mil. The Top 10 at the movies this weekend were filled with new product. Holdover Premonition, a Sandra Bullock thriller from Sony, climbed to 5th place (only a drop of -42%) with $10.1 mil for the weekend from 2,831 theaters. Its new cume is $32.1 mil. Fox Atomic's horror film sequel The Hills Have Eyes 2 debuted #5 Friday but dropped to #6 in final weekend numbers of $9.8 mil from 2,447 venues. Hollywood was especially curious to see how New Line's newcomer The Last Mimzy fared this weekend because the kiddie pic was directed by the studio's chairman Bob Shaye. New Line spent a fortune marketing it as a result (complete with toy-bribed sneaks) but Mimzy only mustered 7th place and a $9.6 mil weekend from 3,017 venues despite the usual Saturday matinee bounce. Sony's 9/11 drama Reign Over Me was intended all along as an opportunity for Adam Sandler to show his acting chops since he makes so much $$$ for that studio in his comedies. So it didn't matter that the pic finished 8th after an $8 mil weekend in 1,671 theaters. Lionsgate's PG African-American targeted sports pic Pride placed 9th, with a $3.7 mil Fri-Sat-Sun weekend in 1,518 playdates. Finishing the Top 10: Lionsgate's horrorific Dead Silence dropped 56%, making only 3.5 mil from 1,806 venues this weekend for a new cume of $13.2 mil. Meanwhile, Chris Rock's bomb at the box office I Think I Love My Wife (Fox Searchlight) dropped out of the Top 10 altogether its second week out. (more...)

Adam's pic Reign Over Me is opening nationwide this Friday. It's the opposite of a comedy and it has Sandler playing drama, so it's near-impossible to market. Yet few actors have enjoyed a promotional ride like Sandler has this week, most of it just like the film's tagline "Let In The Unexpected". On Tuesday, Letterman went home sick with the stomach flu, so Sandler was recruited as a last-minute fill-in for Dave. This was believed to be the first time the Late Show host had shown up for work and couldn't go on. No, Sony Pictures didn't poison Letterman to give Adam some national TV face-time much less a full-hour on a high-profile show. So there was Sandler lovin' it. He did a pretty decent opening monologue. He plopped his bulldog Matzoball down comfortably in the guest chair for an interview. He brought on Don Cheadle, his co-star in Reign Over Me and together, they sang Endless Love to one another. (Clip of the singing here. Sandler's opening monologue here.) After Letterman, Adam went to New York University's Skirball Center for the Performing Arts where the cast of his movie got a standing ovation from an audience that included Tim Robbins, Salman Rushdie and Chris Rock. (Suddenly, people were winning bar bets that pigs would fly before that ever happened.) Now the film got a great New Yorker review despite its downer subject: a guy who loses his family in 9/11. The only problem I see after a Perfect 10 week of movie marketing for Sandler is that Reign Over Me, which was made on the cheap, is gonna be hard-pressed to see much theater love given this weekend's very crowded field of Ninja Turtles, horror hills with eyes, Mark Wahlberg, and those 300 hardbodies. My box office gurus expect Adam's pic to make around $10 mil since it's playing in just 1,600+ venues. 

My box office gurus are telling me this past weekend's gory blockbuster 300 still has lots of momentum for this coming Friday + Saturday + Sunday. The cheapo Warner's epic should march to 1st place for another big $37 mil, followed by Sony's Sandra Bullock thriller Premonition with $18 mil. (Nice counter-programming.) For the weekend of March 23rd, another Warner's pic, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (TMNT) is sure to debut #1 because of the obvious nostalgia factor, with Paramount's engaging assassin thriller Shooter starring Mark Walhberg (fresh off his Oscar nod) in 2nd place and 300 dropping to 3rd. For more on the #1 movie, director Zach Snyder answers 30 questions on 300 here. And my box office report for last weekend is here.

Warner Bros. finally has a bonafide hit on its hand. I'm told that 300 is tracking "huge" and on its way to probably making $40 million this coming weekend. Hard to imagine considering this R-rated pic with no star talent is about the ancient Battle of Thermopylae -- and most of the audience for this pic fell asleep in school during that history lesson. But it's also from the Sin City creator, so this Gladiator Lite has become a most anticipated movies of early 2007 among 18-to-35 year old guys. (Also, 300's billboards are everywhere.) Sony Pictures' Sandra Bullock thriller Premonition looks to have the best opening on the weekend of March 16th. Good thing, too, because that actress' sagging career is badly in need of a boost. (The plot consist of: Her husband's dead, her husband's alive, her husband's dead... You get the picture.) I know a lot of little boys from the 1990s who are in college now and can't wait for that blast from their past: TMNT (Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles), which should open very strong on March 23rd. Obviously, Warner Bros. is hoping to hook a whole new crop of kids who'll kickbox their pals. It's still very early, but already DreamWorks' Blades of Glory -- that low-brow comedy about rival figure-skaters Will Ferrell and John Heder (Napoleon Dynamite) produced by Ben Stiller and others -- is looking good, along with Disney's kiddie fare Meet The Robinsons, for the weekend of March 30th.

If this isn't reason enough not to renew Bob Shaye's contract set to expire in 2008, I don't what is. (Well, come to think of it, I can think of a lot more reasons... like how he's being an asshole to Peter Jackson.) I'm told that the tracking for the New Line chairman's directorial effort, The Last Mimzy, is zero. That's right, zero. (That's almost as good a number as Shaye's last directing effort, 1990's The Book Of Love, which tanked big-time.) The 68-year-old studio mogul shouldn't be directing anything in the first place since New Line's product is doing so stinko. (Jim Carrey's The Number 23 just went splat, continuing a long streak of flops.) Shaye also picked a horrible weekend to open his film: March 23, alongside the Mark Wahlberg starrer Shooter, The Hills Have Eyes 2, the remake of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (from sister studio Warner Bros; great irony there since Shaye had New Line in its early days bank on the TMNT phenom), The Pride (this Liongate genre does well), and Rain Over Me. And let's not forget that Shaye isn't alone in this apparent debacle: Toby Emmerich, New Line's embattled head of production, co-wrote the sci-fi fantasy based on a short story about two sisters who find a mysterious box filled with mysterious toys. (Of course, the arrogant Shaye didn't want the pic to play as mere kiddie fare -- even though that's what it is.) So how is Shaye going to counter this? By more than just sneaks. I'm told by having his studio plan on spending "like crazy" in the last two weeks prior to the pic's release in the hapless hope of driving Mimzy's opening weekend to $20 mil. To do that, marketing gurus tell me New Line would have to spend between $30 mil and $40 mil to have a prayer of making that box office. All in all, this was a stupid decision by Shaye to make this movie, much less direct it. He should be bounced. After all, Time Warner is a public company, his New Line is no longer a private fiefdom, and he's pissing away the stockholders' money.