UPDATE: Gavin Polone Explains Himself
The Prince Of Darkness, aka producer/manager/ex-agent Gavin Polone, went on television today proclaiming that the writers' strike is positive for the earnings of studios and the WGA has lost its leverage. Yeah, the stoning starts now. On the one hand, I always applaud Gavin for never being afraid to go on the record with his opinions. On the other hand, those opinions are incredibly crackpot. (There's good reason his production company is called "Pariah".) In the TV interview with Fox Business Network (which couldn't even get the spelling of his name right), Polone said:
On how the writers’ strike is benefiting the studios:
“This strike, right now, at this point in time, is positive for the earnings of all these studios, I’m sure…Now, these companies are so vertically integrated that they’re going to make money from a lot of different sources…They’re making more money right now because they’ve lowered their costs…The studios are using this as an excuse [to save money]…What’s going to happen is that the people who aren’t watching Lost right now are going to say I’ll go watch something else on ABC Family, which is still owned by Disney. The same corporate conglomerate will still make money.”
On how the writers’ strike is benefiting producers:
“In a weird way, it has allowed me to push forward a lot of scripts that would normally have taken a long time to get to the point where they could be produced because everyone likes to tinker with them. Not having the writers available, and having the threat of a SAG strike, which is potentially going to happen on June 30th, has gotten the studios to not tinker at all with the scripts and to push more things into production because after June 30th they might not be able to produce anything.”
On how long the strike will last:
“I think it’s going to go on for quite a long time. I think it could go one for easily six months. This whole thing is a debacle. It really has been mishandled by the Writers’ Guild.”
On the writers losing their leverage:
“They [the writers] just gave away their leverage. All their leverage was before they called a strike. That’s when they had the gun to the heads of the studios. They misread the strength of the studios at this particular time and those running the studios. These aren’t guys you can push around by walking outside of their houses with signs. Sumner Redstone isn’t going to give in because he sees people with signs outside of the studio.”
“Sumner Redstone isn’t going to give in because he sees people with signs outside of the studio.”
As much as I hate to admit this, he’s absolutely right.
Comment by Tim — November 16, 2007 @ 2:20 pm
Leave it to FOX to find the guy who’d not only sensationalize how the WGA has “mishandled” this negotiation, but would find a way to pat said network on the back for playing it the exact right way (I am sure Seth MacFarlane has a very different take…)
Comment by jr — November 16, 2007 @ 2:26 pm
No, but Sumner Redstone may give in if Democratic Senators were to threaten to haul his ass before a Sub-Committee hearing and start asking some uncomfortable questions about his studio funding. And Rupert Murdoch. And Les Moonves. And…. we’ve all seen that viral video.
Did you notice how little Big Media has commented on the WGA/SAG trip to Capital Hill? My first thought was “Yeah, Oddjob suddenly got very nervous in “Goldfinger” when James Bond finally figured out his hat was a weapon which cut both ways. The big guy stepped back very fast.”
So did Big Media.
As for Palone, who was never more brilliantly pastiched than by himself when he appeared in “Action” trying to get O.J. Simpson a role in Peter Dragon’s new movie (”Sure, the guy’s had some personal issues but he’s been taking acting classes to improve his chops”) - the man is definately a blowhard and he’s way off base on what power the WGA has, but the other stuff is, sadly, pretty much on the money….
Comment by Anonymous — November 16, 2007 @ 2:28 pm
Remind me never to work with Gavin Palone. In my view he’s worse than the studios. At least they have the excuse of self-interest.
Comment by Alistwriter — November 16, 2007 @ 2:31 pm
“All their leverage was before they called a strike.”
QUOTED FOR TRUTH.
Comment by Bouncing Castle — November 16, 2007 @ 2:37 pm
There is a reason Gavin’s production company is called “Pariah”. He always has been and always will be a deeply unlikeable figure. Shame on him.
Comment by merryj — November 16, 2007 @ 2:37 pm
Gee, if only his production company had an appropriate name. Oh wait, it does.
Comment by Ted Striker — November 16, 2007 @ 2:39 pm
Gavin Polone is absolutely (and unfortunately) correct. This is a fight based on idealism, and not practicality. Writers are idealistic, and that’s a good thing. They need to be practical, too — and now the onus is on them to come up with a practical solution. That’s not to say it’s not possible, but it’s effectively in their court.
Comment by thom taylor — November 16, 2007 @ 2:50 pm
Gavin’s a stooge not just for Fox, but for the studios en masse .. that’s who butters his bread, folks
it is no coincidence that at the end of a week where the tide has clearly shifted in WGA’s favor, a loudmouth stooge conveniently appears on Fox News trying to pysch out the WGA
AMPTP must be getting awfully nervous .. expect more of this crap to come
stand strong, WGA - it’s working
Comment by fromtheinside — November 16, 2007 @ 2:51 pm
If the last statement Palone says is true — the writers lost their leverage by calling a strike and taking away the gun they had pointed at the heads of the studios, how is the first statement (that the studios are benefitting from a strike) also true? If the studios benefit from a strike then there never was a gun to their heads in the first place. I’m confused about this logic.
For Palone, the WGA could do no right. Accept for his own pocketbook, it seems. Nice to brag about how well you’re doing when people are being laid off and can’t pay their rent. What a great guy!
Comment by Michelle Stein — November 16, 2007 @ 2:52 pm
Nikki, while I agree with you in disagreeing with Gavin’s reasoning, I do think that in the interest of “fair and balanced” journalism, you shouldn’t just say that his opinions are “crackpot.” You should explain WHY his opinions are “crackpot.” Otherwise, your reporting comes off as slanted and you lose a bit of credibility.
For example, as to Gavin’s reasoning that companies are vertically integrated and a consumer who isn’t watching LOST on ABC will simply gravitate to ABC Family (or another Disney-owned channel), you could point out that his reasoning doesn’t make sense because original programming on ABC Family will also come to a halt. Or you could point out that viewers could just as easily defect to another media outlet that’s owned by a different parent company. And you coud point out that once viewers leave LOST, they might not return, thereby effectively killing a proven income-generator.
etc. etc. etc. Again, I agree with you in principal that what he’s saying doesn’t make any sense, and as a producer himself, his bias couldn’t be more obvious. But I’m just saying you need to articulate the reasons WHY you disagree with his opinion.
Comment by agentyungbuck — November 16, 2007 @ 2:55 pm
is he wrong?
Comment by Just wonderin' — November 16, 2007 @ 2:56 pm
You’re losing all your credibility today, Nikki. Why are you just taking pot shots at people you don’t like instead of reporting on the real huge stories today…namely that some showrunners (including Carlton Cuse) are quietly slipping back to work, and the late night shows are talking about coming back?
Comment by come on nikki — November 16, 2007 @ 3:03 pm
Gavin has it all nailed, exactly right. Force majeure means immediate short term savings for the studios. They feel no real economic pinch for six months, and the writers can’t possibly go that long.
Comment by TV showrunner — November 16, 2007 @ 3:04 pm
Man am I sick of people saying that the writers had all their leverage BEFORE they started the strike. Really? They really had leverage? And is that how come the last three times that they threatened to strike, but didn’t, they ended up getting exactly what they wanted?
Whatever you’re smoking, Gavin, I’ll take some.
Comment by Nick — November 16, 2007 @ 3:06 pm
right or wrong, Ari has a point. I’ve believed for some time that the studios have been colluding on ways to bring down development and production costs. By allowing the strike to continue, the studios have out clauses to many contracts that they may or may not regret. This affords them tremendous power in reigning in the expenditures. It just so happens that it started with the WGA. Perhaps I’m off base, but it certainly seems like a potential strategy for the producers. Where Ari is far off base relates to his assertion that the writers are to blame for the strike. The writers deserve everything their asking for. However, I wonder if it will take a consortium of guilds to negotiate with the producers and come to some sort of compromise.
Comment by Kalirashad — November 16, 2007 @ 3:08 pm
He’s right. You guys blew it BIG TIME. You’re going to get another bum deal like you did in 1988 and you all deserve it. If, after 20 years since the last strike THIS is the best you can do, then you haven’t earned the right to even bitch and moan. Instead of calling a strike that CLEARLY benefits the studios (especially after they dump many of your development deals in a couple of weeks) the WGA SHOULD have been trying to come up with viable business models from which writers can not only benefit, but which will move us into the next phase of new media. So much for all of that “creativity” you all claim you have. The studios will continue to make money in one way or another (none of them with the exception of CBS counts on broadcast tv for any REAL revenue at the bottom line). You guys walked RIGHT into this one. LoL.
Comment by ChuckT — November 16, 2007 @ 3:10 pm
I remember reading about Gavin Polone for the first time years ago. It described him as an arrogant loudmouth with a black Ferrari who treated the people around him abominably. I knew he was an asshole. I didn’t know he was also stupid. Thanks for the post, Nikki.
Comment by Anonymous — November 16, 2007 @ 3:11 pm
Where does this guy live?
Comment by A pissed off writer — November 16, 2007 @ 3:18 pm
We’re starting to hear a stupid argument very often and I’d like to nip it in the bud. It’s the one about studios saving money because the strike prevents them from having to develop. That’s like saying a restaurant is saving money when no one come to eat, because they don’t have to waste all that money on buying food.
The development the studios aren’t doing right now, that’s supposedly saving them so much money, that’s their NEXT SEASON OF TELEVISION. the argument’s being used to scare writers. Scare us into what? Into coming back to work so they can develop with us.
This strike was not ill-timed. The second half of the current season of television is about to be lost. The studios may be prepared to weather that storm, and the WGA is too. But as we inch into the new year, that’s when the studios loose an entire second season of TV. They don’t want to do that. They hope to avoid it by scaring the crap out of us early in the game and stone-walling on negotiations for a while, so we’ll be so elated when they come back we’ll take anything. Like we always do.
I hope what they find is that we haven’t fallen for this and we’re firm in our #$&@-ing resolve!
As for losing our leverage, that argument is bogus too. If we’d had leverage before the strike, the studios would have negotiated with us. Next season is our leverage.
Comment by stuck in development — November 16, 2007 @ 3:24 pm
Opinions so assinine, they defy comment. Some of the most inarticulate, cloth-headed notions I’ve heard. No wonder. It was on Fox.
Has no one proclaimed that there are some common sense principles on the table, viz.: If the Companies would accept the writers, directors and actors for what they are - collaborative PARTNERS in the production of filmed story-telling, then it would only make sense that ALL OF US should benefit when the fruits of our PARTNERSHIP are realized.
I won’t accept that there’s no place for idealism left in the world.
How’s that for a self-endorsing sentence?
Comment by Dakkar- WGA Writer/Producer — November 16, 2007 @ 3:32 pm
I hope the striking scribes know that this is the AMPTP version of negotiating. The hail-Mary Sunday meeting got the WGA to drop the DVD demands without getting a single thing. The effort to get the strike pushed back at the witching hour was a calculated power play aimed at undermining Guild solidarity.
Now the AMPTP is just sitting back letting the Palones, Emanuels and even the Tom Shorts fire volley after volley in a blatant psychological campaign to undermine Guild leadership and rank-and-file’s resolve. Think about it? Ari Emmanuel is supposedly on the writer’s side but he attempts to denigrate the guild leadership by referring to Guild President Verrone as an animation writer. I don’t remember when the WGA changed its name to “Showrunners Guild of America.”
Verrone is the leader of your guild. Don’t like the job he’s doing , vote him the heck out of office, but don’t let one of your “representatives” bitch-slap him in the your name in front of the producers you’re striking. The Emanuels of the world will still be raking it in long after most of you have stopped receiving residuals, then try getting him on the phone.
The AMPTP want you to sweat and think they can get along without you and that you are being led of a fool’s errand. Let me give you a tip, they need you more than they will ever let on, but their goal isn’t to be fair or responsible or wise. The AMPTP’s goal is to win, and because they collect the money and write the checks, they will have lots of Palones and Emmanuels telling you that you’re way off course and your leadership is wrong. They will blame the end of the world on you. But keep this in mind; if the whole darn town goes reality, all the suits in fiction aren’t going to be vertically integrated. They’ll be sitting next to you at Starbucks begging for a look at your spec script and television pitch.
BE STRONG
Comment by Scribefire — November 16, 2007 @ 3:33 pm
What a dick. Of course he’s on Fox. I hope Judith Regan takes these clowns to the bank.
Comment by YourKiddingMe — November 16, 2007 @ 3:37 pm
Yeah. He’s totally right. Like, when McDonald’s runs out of food, they actually *save* money. And people can just start eating cheaper, more cost-effective things, like ketchup packets and urinal cakes.
Comment by Dagazzi — November 16, 2007 @ 3:38 pm
Brilliant, Gavin!… What writer would EVER want to work with you again. Where does he live? I got some WGA friends with bullhorns who want to express our feelings, show some leverage again…
AND we have another producer admitting that they (and their tinkerers) usually ruin scripts… Somebody tell again, why do we need these guys?
Comment by dante writer — November 16, 2007 @ 3:39 pm
Nikki, you might hate what he’s saying, but it’s what many people inside studios are saying, and as far as the financial realities go, also probably true. I’m a studio employee who sympathizes with the writers and I am upset at what’s going on, but Gavin is repeating what he’s heard from studio insiders. Studios are okay with letting this strike drag on, and that is something the the guild and its leaders didn’t quite reckon on.
Comment by Studio slave — November 16, 2007 @ 3:39 pm
I hate to say it, because the guy sounds like a blowhard, but he’s probably right on almost every point he’s made. Perhaps on one point I disagree. I think the studios probably wanted a strike all along. So Nick Counter’s bombastic behavior at the negotiating table, i.e. not coming through on internet residuals as promised, was calculated to piss off the WGA so they’d have no choice but to strike. As I’ve said in a previous posting, for the studios, it’s all about the bottom line. There’s no emotional component to this for them - simply a cost calculation as to when their losses from the strike are canceled out by their savings from cutting non-performing shows, canceling development deals, firing dead wood from within. I’m sure they know exactly when they’re going to reach the break-even point and, at precisely that moment, they’ll come back to the table with a non-insulting offer for internet residuals. I feel the WGA is wasting a lot of emotional energy being angry - as the studios aren’t operating in a human, personal way. Kind of reminds me of the remake of “War of the Worlds.” Of course, those seemingly indestructible giant aliens were eventually brought down by little viruses. Perhaps the metaphor will carry through. All I can say is, when we finally do get back to the negotiating table, let’s make them PAY. Put DVD’s back on the list of demands, and make them pay much more on internet than they thought they’d have to pay. THAT’s the point where we’ll have real leverage because THAT’S the time it will no longer be profitable for them to be out of production. Let’s drag it out at that point and make them BEG!
Comment by WGAE member — November 16, 2007 @ 3:48 pm
WGA writers have a lonnnnnnng memory.
If you are a show runner and you have just read his dribble…promise us you will NEVER take his call again!
Comment by jupiterjoy — November 16, 2007 @ 3:55 pm
I don’t understand the argument thats been floating about that the studios are “making money” off the strike. Okay, I’ll grant you not having to pay for production of episodes saves money. And wiping the slate of pilots may save money. But if I owned a pizza shop, not buying dough, sauce, and cheese would also save me money, but wouldn’t make me any either.
Reality TV can substitute. So can game shows. But will TV networks go to an all variety format essentially? I doubt it. And I doubt they will dramatically alter their way of doing pilots for next season. Eventually they will have to come up with something to plug the holes in their line up.
Comment by Sean S, — November 16, 2007 @ 3:55 pm
Oh, and this quote:
“Sumner Redstone isn’t going to give in because he sees people with signs outside of the studio.”
Ah, yeah, we know that, Gavin. It ain’t about the picketers, it is about the work stoppage. In case he didn’t hear.
And Sumner sure as eff is not going to let Rupert Murdoch siphon more viewers from cbs to American Idol or whatever Freemantle (non sig) product Fox puts up. Sumner might be pissed at the WGA but he has got more vile for Murdoch. Google.. “My Space” to find out why, Gavin.
Comment by jupiterjoy — November 16, 2007 @ 4:01 pm
Uh, it’s “Polone” not “Palone.” And while I don’t want to agree with him, I fear that he might be more right on some of these issues than not. I don’t think that I’d call what he has to say “crackpot,” which doesn’t make this site look particularly “fair and balanced” either.
Comment by Arthur Digby Sellers — November 16, 2007 @ 4:22 pm
I’m a WGA member in good standing.
And I really hate to say this, but I think Gavin “beelzebub” Polone might be right here. At least if you look at what he’s actually saying: This strike is not really hurting the studios yet.
Sure, they probably didn’t want it. And eventually it will start to hurt them. But right now..? I doubt it’s making much of a dent in their bottom line.
You can look at the strike many ways. But if you look at it as a business negotiation (which is, I’m guessing, how the Sumner Redstone’s of the world are looking at it) then it sure seems like the guild mishandled it… Time will tell. But if this strike goes for six months, then it wasn’t worth it. Not from a monetary point of view… The guild membership will not gain as much as they loose in that six months. (We won’t even mention the cost to the rest of the people working in this industry… Because we’re thinking like businessmen for the moment.)
This really seems like a strike we should have planned for NEXT time. When there was real money to be gained or lost. When a six month strike would have been worth the cost.
But the fact of it is, for better or for worse, writers tend to operate from place of emotion — and not practicality.
Comment by SorryToSayIt — November 16, 2007 @ 4:35 pm
And here’s a general question for anyone out there with legal/business affairs expertise - how can the studios legally invoke force majeure when they, themselves, are the reason the writers are still on strike? Show runners have agreed to come back if the AMPTP will return to the bargaining table, yet the studios have refused. That’s like causing a hurricane or flood yourself, then calling it force majeure. Can someone please explain?
Comment by WGAE member — November 16, 2007 @ 4:47 pm
RE: stuck in development — Very good points. The writers have already proven that the studios are lying one way or another about online profits. Now, apparently, the studios are ready to volunteer the fact that all the money they spend on creative development is a waste.
Man, I’d LOVE to be a fly on the wall at the next round of shareholder meetings.
Comment by Nick — November 16, 2007 @ 4:57 pm
1) Gavin’s a blowhard who is happy to be on television.
2) No studio executive knows how the strike is going — unless you are Ron Meyer or higher you are not privvy to that information.
3) The guys who are really running this realize that studio exex talk to writers and use them as mouthpieces to disseminate these cockamammie ideas.
4) Content is king.
Just keep up the pressure and don’t worry about the rest of it. Network TV and Features can’t rely on retreads forever. Keep hammering away at the labor union connections so the politicos have to get involved and let the fans speak up. They can’t break you if you don’t let them.
Comment by Amicus Brief — November 16, 2007 @ 5:03 pm
In the past (five years back) TV writers got HUGE development deals and were not expected to work on a show while they sat in their office coming up with ideas for future shows. These days almost every writer with a development deal (of which there are far fewer and much much less money involved) are put to work on current TV shows as co-execs or consultants. They make up more than half the staff in a lot of hit shows. It would make no sense for the studios to fire these people by ending their deals early (force majeure.) It would leave their hit shows without half their writers (and the most experienced ones) when they returned. Try to scare the town if you like, I just don’t buy it.
Comment by TV Writer — November 16, 2007 @ 5:41 pm
I might not agree with the Studios are benefiting financially but all the other points he made are pretty much spot on. The fact that someones has a different opinion on the way things are going and someone want his address is pretty amusing.
Who is the WGA historian because they should be reminding their members of a couple of historic events in motion picture history.
1) Nick Counter has never come out on the wrong sides of one of these labor disputes and I have been on the losing side of one of the 3 I have seen in 30 years
2) And of all the guilds to have your members turning each other in and threating to boycott those who see things differently is a little reminiscent of the Black Listing scandel of the 50’s.
Shameful
Comment by Dagger — November 16, 2007 @ 5:41 pm
I’ll agree the guy sounds like a tool (and I can’t believe you even heard about the interview Nikki - I would sooner gouge my eyes out than watch FOX News), but a lot of what he is saying is spot-on. In fact, I think all of it, except the crap about leverage. The studios are currently benefitting from the strike. Its allowing them to trim the fat, drop the overhead, and be rid of a whole lot of unproductive contracted folk. I work in a studio, and I see it - there are lots of people with fat development deals, under contracts for insane money that aren’t producing a damn thing. The studios are taking advantage of the strike to clean house.
And by the time the housekeeping is over with, AMPTP will be inking the DGA deal, and as per their usual, WGA will use that as a template. And then the rest of us non-writers will maybe be able to get back to our jobs. If we are lucky.
Comment by katy — November 16, 2007 @ 5:57 pm
I’m surprised the studios’ stocks on Wall Street haven’t plummeted thanks to a strike that everyone seems to assume will last until June of next year and the studios tossing out press released about how much money they’re losing.
Comment by Non WGA Writer — November 16, 2007 @ 6:04 pm
We’re starting to hear a stupid argument very often and I’d like to nip it in the bud. It’s the one about studios saving money because the strike prevents them from having to develop. That’s like saying a restaurant is saving money when no one come to eat, because they don’t have to waste all that money on buying food.
QUOTED FOR TRUTH!
We caught them off guard by going out in November. Remember that, writers.
The AMPTP wants to use force majeure, BUT they would have done that anyway. They wanted this strike, absolutely but they wanted it in June! And they got screwed because they were counting on a strike while sitting on a nice fat stockpile of content.
So now of course they’ll keep us out so they can save whatever money they can, but that doesn’t mean it’s net positive for their business.
Because…they’re in the TV and movie business, and we just took a lot of it away from them.
Comment by Dave — November 16, 2007 @ 6:08 pm
Gavin is like that brother that you hate because he is always right (and an asshole about it.) Like him or hate him, his record speaks volumes. I doubt he will lose sleep or writers.
Comment by Buck Zollo — November 16, 2007 @ 6:18 pm
Polone may be a jerk, but he’s not stupid. If you listen carefully to what he says, he’s telling you exactly what the studios/networks are thinking: (a) the studios/networks don’t feel pressed to make a deal right now because they believe they can keep revenues flowing while cutting costs; (b)the studios/networks expect a six-month strike; (c) the studios/networks believe that the WGA sacrificed their Queen on the opening move of the game leaving the Writers Guild at a severe disadvantage.
Polone’s comments are validated by the fact that they explain exactly what’s going on at the studios/networks right now: (a) they’re busy drawing up new 2008 business plans that reflect decreased revenues and deeply cut costs; (b) they’re not responding to calls to come back to the negotiating table because they have no intention of talking to the WGA until the Spring of ‘08; (c) they’re planning to hold the WGA up as an example to DGA/SAG when they talk to them next year and tell them not to make the same mistake as the WGA and walk out at the strike deadline or they’ll suffer the same fate.
Call Polone a jerk if you must, but don’t dismiss what he has to say — at least not until you use it to study the mind of your opposition. That’s how you win the game. Eventually, the best player gets to say, “Checkmate.”
Comment by exstudioguywho loveswriters — November 16, 2007 @ 6:51 pm
“Somebody tell again, why do we need these guys?
Comment by dante writer”
Because by and large, you guys don’t have the money, organizational skills, or the stomach to do the dirty work that has to be done to make your scripts a reality. The arrogance displayed in the comments of the writers here is really staggering.
Comment by jb — November 16, 2007 @ 7:03 pm
In the short run, it does help them. But in the long run it helps us b/c new media is worth fighting and establishing a fair rate for.
It may take until the actors get involved, but at least the AMPTP won’t be sitting on a pile of scripts and movies in the can then.
But they are trying to scare us. Stay strong. Help take care of other crew that’s been laid off. It may be a while…
Although, I am curious as to why CBS (not diversified, needs scripted TV) would offer its head on a platter to Fox who stands to kick its ass with AI.
Comment by girl scribe still walking — November 16, 2007 @ 7:37 pm
Why do people keep using the example of a restaurant stopping to serve food to equal the studio’s halting the production of television shows? GE makes microwaves. Disney has a higher rate of return from the theme parks and cruise lines. Fox has MySpace, newspapers, and SkyTV. The restaurant analogy only works when the restaurant is the cafeteria in a museum where 90% of the money comes from admissions. Believe it, the only writers who can wait this out as long as the studios are the ones who could afford to strike in the first place.
Comment by anonymous — November 16, 2007 @ 7:45 pm
WGAE member,
The studios can and will invoke force majeure as they please. There’s no way stop them short of the WGA ending their strike.
Here’s why: A duly-elected WGA president called for a strike that had been overwhelmingly approved by its members. He then stated publicly that the writers, by striking, intend to “inflict as much pain as possible” on the studios and networks. Immediately after the strike was ordered, the writers stopped working and started picketing the studios and networks. There’s no question, from a legal perspective, that the WGA caused this strike.
Comment by lawdawg76 — November 16, 2007 @ 7:47 pm
Hey, thanks for all of the attention. I want to make sure that I get more than Ari.
I wanted to clarify a few things. First, that I am not saying the studios will never be hurt by the strike. Probably in 9 months to a year when the feature film pipeline dries up, they will have a big problem. Before that time, they will not be producing expensive new scripted shows and they will cut overhead drastically, using force majeur to get out of contractual obligations. This cuts the expense side of the profit equation drastically. The revenue side will not be damaged significantly. Look at the network numbers right now: same as usual. You’ll see them hold for quite a while. They have a lot of sports coming up and more reality programs on tap, including Idol. Ad dollars will continue to pour in. Procter and Gamble has to sell their soap somehow. Yes, people who are fans of particular shows will not watch the reruns of those shows but they will watch reruns of shows they haven’t seen before. I’ve seen every I Love Lucy and every Bewitched but I never saw them on their first runs. Therefore, the networks will continue to make money. During the last strike, the big three networks ratings dropped slightly but Fox and the cable nets went up a lot. If fewer people watch NBC but many more watch USA, Zucker may still show overall profit stability. And, I don’t think NBC will be hurt that bad, anyway. Sunday night football will do even better opposite reruns on ABC.
Also, these companies have many ways to earn money. CBS owns a huge outdoor advertising business: if companies move away from TV advertising they’ll buy more billboards and radio (CBS also has radio). Fox owns MySpace: they’ll also benefit if ad dollars leave broadcast TV. Maybe people will go to theme parks because they’re sick of reruns: good for Disney and NBCUni. Maybe people will read more: CBS owns Simon and Schuster and Newscorp owns Harpercollins.
I do think the WGA has taken the wrong course in being so aggressive and vituperative. They just encourage the studios to dig in deeper, so they don’t show the other unions that they will bend to pressure. And, as I said, those companies are run by tough individuals who aren’t afraid of fighting it out.
So, in short, the WGA will have to hang in for a long time to hurt the big entertainment companies. During that time, many writers will get into bad shape financially. People who are in related businesses will be hurt even more, as they aren’t getting residuals from the reruns that will be all over the schedule, like many writers do. Did you know that writers on Letterman are probably getting $2500 in residuals per week, and up, for every week that he stays off the air? When people at panavision or catering companies start losing their jobs because of the strike, there will be a backlash against the writers. I don’t think they can hold out under the resulting personal or outside pressure of a long strike. Some will scab. Others will protest within the guild. The end result will be they will go back, on bended knee, and negotiate the deal that they probably could have made had they not gone out on strike and just kept negotiating.
Finally, to those of you who said shit about finding out where I live or blackballing me, I want to say that this is the kind of behavior that causes most people to lose sympathy with your cause. The guild’s telling members to turn in others who they think will scab is particularly repugnant. Is this a writer’s union or the Soviet Union? I should be threatened because I expressed my opinion? Really, calm down and act like adults. If your ideas and leverage are so strong, you don’t need to threaten people to win the battle.
Gavin
Comment by Gavin Polone — November 16, 2007 @ 8:00 pm
I have no stake in either side of this strike, but I am a lawyer who has negotiated many many cases.
Negotiation 101-never overestimate your value.. It appears to me that the WGA negotiators totally overestimated how much the studios really need them. From all outward appearances, not just comments by trolls, the studios don’t really care if you come back or not. If they did, the deal would have been done. If you really had the clout that your decision makers thought you had, things would never have gone this far. From your own membership stats, very few members are actually making a good living as writers–what this means is that very few writers are actually valuable commodities to the studios. As far as public support, yes it is strong now, but after awhile, people go back to their own lives, and are going to be annoyed that their shows aren’t on, and certainly aren’t going to boycott Sony and the others’ products over the Christmas season.
Just my opinion, but you are never going to get what you want, because you never have according to all the blogs. Every strike has ended with the writers getting screwed and taking less because they have to get back to work. I think you should learn from the past, and realize that the studios are, and always will be, calling the shots. If your leaders truly understood your value as the studios see it, they wouldn’t put you in a situation that will undoubtedly lead to financial ruin for many members.
And, just a personal observation…I hear that Hollywood is dominated by white males and discriminates against women. Women would have done a much better job of negotiating this strike than the powers that be (on both sides) whose egos can’t all fit through the door at once. It would have never gotten to this point….
Comment by theother — November 16, 2007 @ 8:39 pm
One point we might consider here in deciding whether to take seriously the words of Mr. Polone et al.
If the strike really WERE hurting the studios financially, and they knew it, what do you suppose we’d be hearing from them?
Um, yeah, exactly. We’d be hearing what we’re hearing now — no problems for us, doing fine, lots of Dancing With The Stars ready to go.
I will concur that the writers are in the tougher position for two reasons: (1) They actually give a shit about what they do; and (2) They’re honest. But they got past part (1) enough to be willing to give up their jobs for an indefinite amount of time, and that was a big hurdle to overcome. Do you suppose there would be any negotiation required at all if Les Moonves and Ben Silverman had had been forced to give up their paychecks for a few months for the sake of standing their ground?
Comment by Nick — November 16, 2007 @ 9:19 pm
“Every strike has ended with the writers getting screwed and taking less because they have to get back to work.”
More to the point, the strikes that have been threatened in recent years haven’t come to pass because the writers couldn’t agree to give up working.
And the studios knew that, and used the opportunity to shaft them with a series of shittier and shittier deals. This was the year that the writers had to break the cycle. It’s a precipitous time — we’re within shouting distance of the day when 90% of TV shows and movies are viewed in a capacity which the studios deem “promotional” and therefore exempt from revenue sharing. (I don’t believe I am overstating this. I certainly think it would have sounded MUCH crazier if I stood up in 1985 and said that in just over a decade, home video would be a bigger revenue source than theatrical, and within two decades theatrical would be practically an afterthought.)
Maybe the writers won’t get what they want this time either, but you know what? They’re doing everything in their power to get a fair deal. If they have to go back to work eventually and eat shit, they’ll do it; they won’t let their membership go hungry forever; but I really admire the fact that they had the guts and the will to work against their immediate financial interest in the name of protecting future generations.
Comment by Nick — November 16, 2007 @ 9:40 pm
Attention: All the tools, weasels, quislings and AMPTP stooges who replied to the above story about Gavin Polone’s silly comments with “whoop whoop, you tell ‘em, Gavin!”-type comments and other assorted sniveling about how the WGA leadership has been disastrous, how we should NEVER have struck, how the WGA could NEVER outlast the studios, how we blew our advantage by going on strike, how we are committing suicide by allowing the studios to enact a force majure, etc.
You were ALL wrong. The AMPTP has announced that they are returning to the table on Nov. 26th. Why? Why would they ever do this if you morons are sooooo correct about our lousy bargaining position? They wouldn’t. You’re all wrong. Here are some of the things you’ve been wrong about:
1) Guild leadership wasn’t “hell bent” on striking… they just knew that short of a concerted, organized strike, nothing was going to get the studios to stop giving us 1990’s-era “John Welles” deals (i.e. ones where we don’t really get much of anything besides rollbacks). Patrick Verrone may “only” be an animation writer, but the guy went to HARVARD. They don’t hand out those degrees to the average stupid guy.
2) Guild leadership was 100% correct in asking for strike authorization a month in advance of the contract termination, and 100% correct in going on strike when the AMPTP wouldn’t make a fair offer in the seven months leading up to the deadline. Why continue to bargain with people who are ignoring you?
3) The WGA can most definitely hang together. No one famous has crossed the picket line, no show runner has sold out his guild, and nothing is happening in TV. Your predictions of massive scabbing have proven wrong, and your pessimistic views of the efficacy of our strike and our picketing have been proven dead wrong.
4) The Guild is smarter than you think. By coming back to the table on November 26th, they reset the clock on any attempts at force majure contract cancellation. Ooops. Looks like your conspiracy theory about the Studios laughing all the way to the bank with their saved pennies has been proven dead wrong as well.
Incidentally, we can do that again and again and again. All the way until June when SAG walks out as well.
The AMPTP may have wanted a strike, but they didn’t expect one this early. They thought we were going to fall for the 88 “strike in March after the whole season is over” trick again. Nope!
The AMPTP has been humiliated and embarrassed in the eyes of Hollywood. They thought we were weak, we proved to be strong. They thought we were stupid, we proved to be far more calculating than they thought. They thought we would scab, they found out otherwise. They thought their ownership of the news would sway America to support them, but they miscalculated just how much the average Jane thinks super-rich billionaires deserve more money than working writers. They thought they had enough money to withstand a few weeks of work stoppage, and again, it turns out that they just DO NOT.
Every calculation that the AMPTP and their mouthpieces and apologists have made has been dead wrong. Except for one: that their stooges could plant fake stories on blogs and bring out from the WGA’s ranks cowardly lions eager spit on their leadership, on their fellow members, and on their negotiating committee. That’s IF you people are really writers (which, y’know, I sorta doubt).
Peace out, losers. How’s it feel to be dead wrong about EVERYTHING in your life? Keep toeing that company line, and be grateful for what we writers with spines have achieved for you.
Comment by Propagandist — November 17, 2007 @ 1:10 am
It is possible to be a jerk and be right. Might be more helpful to listen to what he is saying and evaluate the truth of it than to take this appearance for potshots at Fox - okay you don’t like ‘em but I watch much of the new Fox Business Channel religiously and they have covered different aspects of the strike with writers, actors, behind the scenesers almost every day - a lot more than ABC, CBS, NBC and CNN combined - maybe instead of knee-jerking approach them to get your side of the story out there. You dont like what GP says get some equal time for one of your troops.
Comment by NYScribe — November 17, 2007 @ 4:25 am
propagandist,
Returning to the negotiating table does NOT reset the clock on force majuere. Only a settlement and return to work by the WGA can do that.
Comment by lawdawg76 — November 17, 2007 @ 9:50 am
I’m more impressed by the awesome monikers of the posters than anything Gavin has to say. Agentyungbuck, Alistwriter, scribefire — thank you for making my morning that much brighter.
Comment by Katie — November 17, 2007 @ 10:09 am
Dear Propagandist,
There are many reasons that the AMPTP would start negotiating. My guess is because it looks good. They do have a lot of interaction with the FCC right now and want rules changed. Appearing reasonable is smart business. I am very confident because they are not being hurt, right now, by the strike. There is no evidence of that. Movies are coming out and TV ratings haven’t dropped.
When you say “the eyes of Hollywood,” whom are you talking about. The AMPTP is Hollywood. They are not “Humiliated and embarrassed.” I have spoken to many studio people recently and I don’t get any of that. I think they’ll come back with a similar proposal to what they had the Sunday before the strike and be willing, later, to get to a slightly higher proposal that, pretty much, applies the current residual plan to downloads.
Speaking of embarrassed, why don’t you print your name on your posts? If you’re so confident about your views, put your name behind them. It is pretty easy to name call and take a stand anonymously. If you think it is okay to accuse other bloggers of not being “real writers” why not let us all assess if you are a “real writer.” So far, I can only go by the fact that you wrote “peace, out” at the end of your post, which makes me believe that nobody has ever paid you to write anything.
Comment by Gavin Polone — November 17, 2007 @ 10:39 am
Screen Actors Guild go on Strike and Directors Guild of America.
Comment by JW — November 17, 2007 @ 10:41 am
Gavin,
I’ve known about you for some time. (My first agent was Nancy Jones at CAA ten years ago.) But I know of rumor, and I don’t lend it much creedence in my life. I judge by what I see.
The only thing I knew of you after that was your taste as a producer. No one can assail you on that–and my lay impression was that you were both a fan and a friend of talented writers.
That was until you went on Fox.
You’re entitled to your opinion, but not your own facts.
You argue that movies and tv are not being hurt because “movies are coming out and tv ratings aren’t dropping.” Is that your barometer? It doesn’t hurt them that they can’t go into production with high-profile films (”Angels and Demons”)? It doesn’t hurt them that nearly 50 shows have been shut down, that ad buyers have been quoted a saying the buybacks that the networks will have to provide their advertisers will be massive? It doesn’t hurt them that they will have what amounts to nearly NO pilot season and NO upfronts for September?
Outside of CBS–which since the split from Viacom relies mainly on their ratings to keep their stock prices up—these factors may not affect the ultimate bottom line of the conglomerates. But it’s only been 12 DAYS.
You go on to say “I have spoken to many studio people and I don’t get any of that.” REALLY? THAT’S your gauge? You’re a bright guy, Gavin. If you’re talking about anyone outside the guys at the very top, it’s about as reliable as hearing it from Variety. It’s speculative. If you ARE talking Iger, et al, and you’re hearing that, all I can say is C’MON. You’re a bright guy, Gavin. You think they’re going to give you—a producer with close ties to top writers–a look at their soft underbelly? They’re bright guys too.
Speaking of bright, going on “fair and balanced” FOX News while the rancor is especially high, towing the company line–even if it IS your opinion–blasting the WGA’s strategy first on the air, THEN on here (and believe me, writers are checking this sight more than the trades for the latest), with postings like the following:
“The end result will be they will go back, on bended knee, and negotiate the deal that they probably could have made had they not gone out on strike and just kept negotiating.”
Well…that maybe is not so bright. Especially the “on bended knee” part. Though I will admit, it’s kinda funny and colorful.
Your reputation before, if I’m correct, was of a shoot-from-the-hip guy who fiercely protected writers. With one fell swoop, you left tact aside, and your actions and comments have you coming off as a corporate shill who’s desire to express “his” opinion has trumped any sight of the collateral damage the timing, method, and delivery of “said” opinion will do.
Not to us, mind you. To you.
Maybe it doesn’t matter to you, but writers have long memories. And we all read this site.
I’m glad you wanted more responses than Ari. But even Ari apparently saw that coming out looking like a sock puppet for the AMPTP on HuffPo has an effect on his business–as he came out THE VERY NEXT DAY, and presented THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ARGUMENT, which the WGA has been saying since talks broke down.
I concur with nearly everything in Propagandist’s response to you. And before you ask, people have been paying me to write for them for quite some time.
Happy Saturday.
Jorge A. Reyes
Creator, Kevin Hill.
Comment by Jorge Reyes — November 17, 2007 @ 1:27 pm
Jorge,
First, I commend you for posting your name. Shows conviction.
Sure, Sony must be unhappy about Angeles and Demons but they’re still making movies. I’m going into prep on one now. The pipeline will be filled and they’ll make that movie after the strike and it will be a big hit. All of the studios have ramped up from a while back to contend with this situation. Look how your brethren all coloborated to get a script on Transformers 2 before the strike. That is a big asset for Paramount. As I said, the studios will put out films for a year before their inventory gets thin.
I will say it again, the entertainment companies are not effected yet. Yes, they will be after quite a while. The networks only have to deliver make-goods to advertisers when the ratings drop and that hasn’t happened. I don’t believe it will until the mid to late spring. Before that time, the overhead reductions and reduced spending on programs will increase their earnings, which will even out a lot of the giveback later on. Pilots can be ramped up quickly. I’ve produced about thirty and you can take my word for it. Wish all you want that the networks are hurting but the reality is that they are not.
The question is: how long can the writers hold out. If you hold out a year, you will hurt them and gain a strong negotiating position. But at what cost?
As for your “long memories” threat, you might want to think about the history of blacklisting in this business and decide if you really want to advocate something like that. Did Ari reverse his opinion or was he coerced into doing so? Is that what you want: to force people to refrain from expressing their opinion or lie about what they truly think? Again, writer’s union or Soviet Union? I think your threats are pretty ugly.
If some or many don’t want to work with me because I have a different take on the current situation, they were not people with whom I should have been working in the first place; and it is better to find that out sooner rather than later. I, certainly, wouldn’t try to censor anyone or limit their livelyhood because they saw the other side of an issue. The only thing I reject is intolerance and bullying. That is what you’re trying to do and it really doesn’t have an effect on me. I had never heard of you before, nor have I seen Kevin Hill, though I heard it was good, and I most certainly don’t care about your assesment of my brightness. I just feel bad for those who might be in different stages of their lives or careers and may decide to bite their tongue because of threats of bullies like you.
Comment by Gavin Polone — November 17, 2007 @ 2:59 pm
This whole correspondence is a great example of how the way things are said obscures what is actually meant. The discussions have been long, but sorting a couple of things out, I believe we come up with this:
After 14 days, the moguls can force majeure deals that are of no further use to them. This is, to them, “housecleaning” that will save a lot of money. It doesn’t mean successful shows will lose writers — those writers will continue to be paid through the show when it comes back. Writers who aren’t on shows and aren’t producing enough to pay out their deals will be out of luck. This also goes for non-writing producers the studios don’t feel they want to keep paying. So as far as that goes, Gavin is making a point that makes sense. Once the strike began, the clock started ticking on these deals, and there wasn’t a lot of motivation to settle before they could be cancelled.
So that is a savings. Calling a strike right after the deadline wasn’t a mistake, because studios and networks were stock-piling scripts, as many have pointed out here. BUt many movies were put into production without sufficiently finished scripts. That’s a big cost for the studios, not one they wanted. Waiting for SAG would have been a mistake. There is no question that losing a large part of a TV season isn’t a savings, even if cancelling a few unsuccessful shows is. Leverage was not lost. The element of surprise helped make it harder for the studios to sustain a strike, even if they can still afford a long one. Hitting harder knocks the wind out of them. Nobody wants this to go on forever, and nobody can afford that. We all agree on that much.
The moguls may not be ashamed, but they cannot be unaware of the fact that their obstinance appears shameful — even to people who may be upset about their own income loss because of this strike. Thanks to the internet, it has been clear who walked away from the table and ended negotiations. The writers are not the only ones being blamed for this, even now. The moguls also hurt their argument with the FCC about how wonderful it will be for everyone if they own more media outlets when their greed and self-dealing are so nakedly exposed.
Writers haven’t lost every, single strike — we got his guild through striking. It was painful, but rights were won — rights that would never had been gained without extreme action. In ‘88, however, the strike was lost because the guild fragmented. It fragmented because not many writers understood the importance of video-taped programming — especially TV writers, who believed nobody would ever want to own their shows on tape. The bad DVD deal was made to avoid another strike. But we writers have lost too much income in new media, and none of us is so foolish as to believe the internet isn’t important. This veryn argument is being waged on the internet. The news about the strike is reported first and — probably for the first time on any subject — more accurately — on the internet. Our shows and films are already streaming in advertiser supported formats on the internet. The guild will not split over the importance of this again.
Forget calling people jerks, or crawling-on-knees or whatever other ad hominem bullshit is getting slung around here. This is a business negotiation, and thank goodness it will begin again soon, we all hope in earnest. After it is over, we must all return to work together.
I have only one more comment — I think the WGA will make strides in negotiating these new contracts. In the end, the big corporations can afford to lose the miniscule share of revenue we want — revenue they are (unsuccessfully) pretending doesn’t exist. But the writers, actors and directors depending on this negotiation as a pattern example, cannot afford to lose. So we must stick it out, and we will.
Comment by marjorie David — November 17, 2007 @ 4:06 pm
Gavin,
Thanks for responding. So the big producer man thinks little ole me, who you’ve never heard of, is bullying YOU? Hilarious.
I, like you, also speak my mind and I stand behind it. You are entitled to your increasingly slanted point-of-view and can spew it wherever your heart desires. It’s the innaccuracies, conjecture, and nearly exact recitation of the AMPTP’s talking points that people are calling you on.
I made no threats. There appears to be some projection on your part.
Did you actually use the word “blacklisting”? Good move–I appreciate you taking a page out of Nick Counter’s playbook, but that AMPTP ad didn’t fool me or anyone else, and neither do you. The only thing I really have power over is the remote control at my house (when my girlfriend’s not here), and the decisions I make for myself. I don’t lead a nation of writers OR their decisions.
Though I’m sure the writers “who might be in different stages of their lives or careers” here are grateful for your open-hearted concern, I give them more credit than you do. I don’t see them “biting their tongues because of bullies” like me—most haven’t heard of me or my show. I’m a little guy with strong convictions. But EVERYONE is aware of who you are. I believe the writers of which you speak will look at the situation, look at what I said and what you did, and make up their own mind.
I’m not afraid of that.
The long memory I refer to is my own. Not that you care, but I won’t forget it. Then again, you’ve never heard of me, so of course that really doesn’t matter, does it?
Where I come from, you fire across our bow, expect fire back. You dish it out but can’t take it.
Textbook definition of a bully.
And thanks again for your time and energy in responding.
Your pal,
Jorge Reyes
Comment by Jorge Reyes — November 17, 2007 @ 9:04 pm
The people here slamming Polone are just shooting the messenger for delivering the bad news.
It’s possible that he’s wrong, but he’s just saying what everyone outside the WGA now believes. Trashing him doesn’t do anything to contradict his argument.
Comment by a wife — November 19, 2007 @ 7:39 am
>Man am I sick of people saying that the writers had
>all their leverage BEFORE they started the strike.
>Really? They really had leverage?
The difference in this case is that SAG could easily go on strike in June.
If the WGA and SAG had gone on strike together — and gotten the post-production unions to go on strike with them — they could have halted productions immediately and stopped new shows from appearing on TV and in theaters within a few weeks.
As it is now, it will probably take 6 months before anyone notices any shortage of new films and TV show episodes.
Comment by editor's wife — November 19, 2007 @ 7:49 am
This was always going to need a strike.
Of course the studios can cut costs and do just fine in the short run.
So it was always going to be a strike that would probably be long if the writers want to really win anything rather than be tossed a few crumbs.
But it can be won if the writers (and in 6 months the actors) can stay strong and hold out.
Because the underlying truth is that the media companies sell content and the writers create that content. At the end of the day you cannot program repeats forever - the audience will tire and today, especially for the prized young audience, there are alternatives (internet, video games).
So this is a matter of will. Who can hold out? In the short run the studios win and writers will get little or nothing if they settle quickly. In the long run the writers/actors win. And if they can hold out to this point it will be time to truly demand something worth having.
Comment by petpetpetepete — November 19, 2007 @ 9:44 am